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Relegation


Amo69

The Drop  

609 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Villa Go Down?

    • Yes
      238
    • No
      283
    • Unsure
      88


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We really need the Boggies to do us a massive favour. Wigan have Spurs and Arsenal left and they're away to Brom. It's plausible; although certainly not guaranteed; that they'll lose to both of the Londoners. Brom can be tough at the Hawthorns so hopefully that's one of those days. If that's the case then Wigan have zero points between now and their game against us, meaning in that scenario a solitary point does us between now and then.

Hopefully Wigan having an iota of focus on the cup final will detract from their league form. As much as Martinez will undoubtedly drill into them that focus must be on the league, the individuals will not want to get injured and be ruled out of the final, so they mightn't go as hard for 50-50 balls etc.

EDIT : I forgot they still have a game in hand at home to Swansea...

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I think Wigan have looked very tentative in their last couple of games and have suffered poor results as a consequence. So much passing the ball around in midfield but little effort to get into the box and go for goal. It's not beyond possibility that the players are afraid to get injured and so miss the cup final. This is working in our favour and is why I think we will just about scrape to survival at their expense. I think it will take a fairly spectacular cock up on our parts to allow Wigan to get ahead of us now.

Edited by briny_ear
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If we stay up I hope our players will learn alot from this season.  I think they have improved alot and if they can carry the form from the last 6 or 7 games then we will have a good mid table side.

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Anything similar next term is just not acceptable. I expect a busy summer, or heads need to roll.

If we went into next season with the exact same players, we'd be a midtable side. They've been midtable since January (i.e this calendar year) and would all be a year older. That's the thing with projects like this. They're only painful at the start but then they get better. Which is why it would be a crying shame to go down.

 

I agree.

 

But this does back up Magic Mushroom's point that a similar performance next season wouldn't be acceptable.

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If we stay up I hope our players will learn alot from this season.  I think they have improved alot and if they can carry the form from the last 6 or 7 games then we will have a good mid table side.

 

 

Agreed.

 

However, we will still need to bring in some experience and guile at the back and middle, then its a case of filling out the squad. Lessons have hopefully been learnt and taken on board.

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But this does back up Magic Mushroom's point that a similar performance next season wouldn't be acceptable.

But the inference from his post is that if we don't make changes we're in for more of the same and that we therefore need a big summer. I'm trying to say that if we don't make changes we'll be more than fine.
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But BOF, is that taking into account other teams strengthening? I agree that the foundations are being made, but we must not fall into the mistake of kidding ourselves that we will be fine. Those foundations need building on, otherwise we may have a case of constructive collapse at some point in the season. We all know where any strengthening has to be, so lets hope its not neglected because the powers that be, believe their new found strategy has succeeded because we managed to escape relegation by the skin of our teeth!

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I think this 

 

 

Anything similar next term is just not acceptable. I expect a busy summer, or heads need to roll.

If we went into next season with the exact same players, we'd be a midtable side. They've been midtable since January (i.e this calendar year) and would all be a year older. That's the thing with projects like this. They're only painful at the start but then they get better. Which is why it would be a crying shame to go down.

 

I think this team would be bottom 5 next season too and that we do need a busy summer if we stay up.

I agree that Lambert and the players would have learned a lot but the major problems with defence and midfield is still there.

We score more goals now than during the first half of the season but it's (more or less) all down to Benteke, he's scored almost half of our goals. Next season every team we meet will focus on him and unless Gabby and Wiemann find a better scoring touch we'll struggle again because the current midfield offer nothing

 

Edit: Just to clarify, by busy i don't meen that we need 10 new squad players but 4-5 starting 11 players. For me that's a busy summer and will cost a lot of money

Edited by sne
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But BOF, is that taking into account other teams strengthening? I agree that the foundations are being made, but we must not fall into the mistake of kidding ourselves that we will be fine. Those foundations need building on, otherwise we may have a case of constructive collapse at some point in the season. We all know where any strengthening has to be, so lets hope its not neglected because the powers that be, believe their new found strategy has succeeded because we managed to escape relegation by the skin of our teeth!

Yes it does take that into account. Teams don't necessarily strengthen. In fact the further down the league you go, the more likely the teams will weaken because they get pillaged for the players that did well that season and who might fancy their chances further up the league. Take Newcastle. Teams are already circling around Cabaye & Cisse. They'll buy replacements but there's no guarantee those replacements will be up to much. If you look at their most recent purchases like Gouffran, they've done very little. If you read between the lines of my post you'll note that we would need to keep hold of Benteke - but I'm actually quite confident now that we will if we stay up, much more than I had been until recently. At least for one season anyway.

If we don't sell our stars then we don't need a 'big' summer. We're already fine. Now that's not to say a few reinforcements wouldn't go amiss. It just means we don't need the big summer that people might first assume, because they're forgetting that this lot are maturing before our very eyes. I'll take staying up and a 'normal' summer.

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I don't agree at all with the notion we need a "busy summer"

 

We need to strengthen yes.  CB and a Winger are a MUST, a proper creative CM would be great, BUT, the forward line is good, Bennett is getting better, so its quality and not bodies we need.  

 

Assuming we keep Benteke and Weimann.

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Anybody know how the following hypothetical scenario is resolved?

 

On the final day of the season only Villa & Wigan can still go down. We beat Wigan 3-0. This effectively means both teams have identical records, games won, drawn, lost &  goals scored & conceded & both teams have the exact same score against eachother in the head to head. 

 

How is this resolved? Is it a one off decider & if so where would it be played?

 

Finally, could your heart & nerves stand it?

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IIRC if every scenario has been taken into account then that would be resolved by a coin toss. As much as we'd like it to be resolved by alphabetical order.

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