Relegation

[Ron Burgundy]

I was waiting to see last night’s performance until I decided if, in my opinion, we were going to go down or not. if we had been battered I think it would have been nailed on that we will go down but we did show a bit of spunk in the 2nd half.

 

However, I don’t think the second half performance on its own warrants much optimism, despite all the pressure we had to rely on a dodgy penalty to even score once.
 

I think it’s going to be tight down there but I’m ready to call it - IMO we are going down, the only real debate for me now is whether it’s in last place or not.

 

[Jon]

we are the new leeds when we go down

 

We're really not though. Lerner has money, for a start. Leeds had none, and had borrowed shed loads and couldn't pay it back. They had a load of expensive, experienced players who they then struggled to offload.

 

We have already offloaded most of our expensively waged players (which is one of ther reasons we're going to go down). Others will be sold at the end of the season when we drop down (Bent, Benteke, Big Ron, Zogbia etc) or their contracts will end (Dunne). We'll end up with a load of academy players and players recruited from the championship, none of who will be on big money.

 

It's like we've already prepared to go down .... the only players we'll struggle to shift will be Ireland and Given. We really will need to try to get them off the books somehow ...

[AVFCAM]

If we don't get relegated, I shall wear my my clothes upside down, so trousers on top ad jumps on bottom at the last game of the season...

Somebody made a good point in the January thread...even after we have been mauled and hammered and humiliated by pretty much everyone, we're still only just in the bottom 3.

I'm pretty sure we're going down, based mainly on our performances, but, it's not a lost cause just yet...we just need some wins...highly implausible, but not impossible...

[Pongotastic]

Going to be very difficult to stay up now. I wasn't looking forward to the match yesterday which is very rare when Villa are playing (let alone when it's a team who haven't won away all season and four years ago would be picked off at will).

 

Don't doubt there is effort, but there's also no confidence, no belief and a painful lack of quality.

 

The likelihood is that we will go to Wigan on the last day needing some sort of result. In a fight between us and them - taking into account their survival experience - the smart money wouldn't be on us.

[danceoftheshamen]

Ok so lets say the dreaded happened & we go down... Which i think it's fair to say is now looking like a virtual certainty. To survive some almost impossible things have got to happen.

 

1.We have to win 6 games from 14 or at least 5 wins & a few draws & even that may not be enough (38 points).

 

2. It would take one of the biggest upturns in form & luck ever..very unlikely.

 

3. Our players who have no confidence would have to suddenly find some from somewhere... fast!

 

4. We need around 18-20 points minimum from 14 games so we need to almost double our average points haulage from the season thus far.

 

5. We have to do this with no new signings.

 

For me we need to win at Goodison to have any chance.

 

 

 

So suppose we do get relegated....

 

Would we be the richest club outside the Premier League? surely we would?

Edited January 30, 2013 by danceoftheshamen

[turnbull]

30 quid to Acorns if we stay up, if we go down, Lerner can pay it!!

[NeilS]

I think we are gonners now. I have been thinking this now for the last few weeks, but each passing week and result is cementing my opinion that we have gone. We lurch from bad result to bad result, showing no sign of changing the form we are in, whilst others below and around us in the league show signs of fight and improvement. The manager is showing no sign of changing things for us, and the fact that we seem to conceed at least twice every game, and have a dodgy 45 minutes every game is very worrying. You would think that Lambert would have drilled the team and organised them to make them hard to beat after the Chelsea and Spurs games. Redknapp came in at QPR and instantly made them harder to beat. Lambert has done nothing, we still make the same mistakes every game.

 

The recent losses to Milwall and Bradford would suggest that we will struggle to win enough to come straight back up. It will be a battle, especially as we'll be seen as the boys to beat by the regular Championship teams. With our lack of fight, and talent I do fear we will become a mid table Championship side at best.

[AVFCAM]

Ok so lets say the dreaded happened & we go down... Which i think it's fair to say is now looking like a virtual certainty. To survive some almost impossible things have got to happen.

1.We have to win 6 games from 14 or at least 5 wins & a few draws & even that may not be enough (38 points).

2. It would take one of the biggest upturns in form & luck ever..very unlikely.

3. Our players who have no confidence would have to suddenly find some from somewhere... fast!

4. We need around 18-20 points minimum from 14 games so we need to almost double our average points haulage from the season thus far.

5. We have to do this with no new signings.

For me we need to win at Goodison to have any chance.

So suppose we do get relegated....

Would we be the richest club outside the Premier League? surely we would?

A few points, although I am in agreement with you...

We don't need to double our points, half a season is 19 games, in which we got 18-20 points...so we need to match the first half, but a little better, to make up for the 5 games we've had of this half...

Our form changed after Liverpool, in 1 week, after Chelsea destroyed us. Should we somehow take a major scalp, perhaps beating Everton away, maybe we could expect some kind of confidence back...

Like I say, I agree with you, we're down...but I'm trying to remain positive through logic rather than the blind faith others have shown...

[Robbie09]

Ok so lets say the dreaded happened & we go down... Which i think it's fair to say is now looking like a virtual certainty. To survive some almost impossible things have got to happen.

 

1.We have to win 6 games from 14 or at least 5 wins & a few draws & even that may not be enough (38 points).

 

2. It would take one of the biggest upturns in form & luck ever..very unlikely.

 

3. Our players who have no confidence would have to suddenly find some from somewhere... fast!

 

4. We need around 18-20 points minimum from 14 games so we need to almost double our average points haulage from the season thus far.

 

5. We have to do this with no new signings.

 

For me we need to win at Goodison to have any chance.

 

 

 

So suppose we do get relegated....

 

Would we be the richest club outside the Premier League? surely we would?

We need to replicate what Wigan did when they went on their winning run last season. Doubtful but not impossible, although highly unlikely without fresh faces.

[TwirlyDoors]

I don't know how many points, therefore how many wins/draws are needed to survive.

 

But we are not the only club down there.

 

We are only in the bottom 3 on goal difference, 1 point from the safety position at the moment.

 

If you don't think we will suddenly start winning loads of games, why do we tend to think others will.

 

Are Reading any better than us?

 

Are Wigan any better than us?

 

Are QPR any better than us?

 

When you look at the league table, no.

 

Every team has its problems, including us. 

 

We only need 1 point more than the bottom 3, whether that be 30, 34, 35, whatever.

 

I believe we have the capability to survive, we have the goal scoring capacity, we may be able to improve our defending with more training time  now we are on 1 game a week.

 

We are not dead yet. 

[lexicon]

So far I've read new Leeds and new Coventry. What absolute rubbish. 

[Robbie09]

I don't know how many points, therefore how many wins/draws are needed to survive.

 

But we are not the only club down there.

 

We are only in the bottom 3 on goal difference, 1 point from the safety position at the moment.

 

If you don't think we will suddenly start winning loads of games, why do we tend to think others will.

 

Are Reading any better than us?

 

Are Wigan any better than us?

 

Are QPR any better than us?

 

When you look at the league table, no.

 

Every team has its problems, including us. 

 

We only need 1 point more than the bottom 3, whether that be 30, 34, 35, whatever.

 

I believe we have the capability to survive, we have the goal scoring capacity, we may be able to improve our defending with more training time  now we are on 1 game a week.

 

We are not dead yet. 

I'd argue that QPR have momentum and are currently better than us, but other than that you're spot on. We're not dead and buried and i think we'll finish above Saints, Reading and possibly Wigan. The frustrating thing is that a couple of players would make the difference. Norwich are slipping so i wouldn't rule them and QPR aren't out of the mix but i do think the final place will be between us and Wigan on the final day.

[AVFCAM]

I don't know how many points, therefore how many wins/draws are needed to survive.

But we are not the only club down there.

We are only in the bottom 3 on goal difference, 1 point from the safety position at the moment.

If you don't think we will suddenly start winning loads of games, why do we tend to think others will.

Are Reading any better than us?

Are Wigan any better than us?

Are QPR any better than us?

When you look at the league table, no.

Every team has its problems, including us.

We only need 1 point more than the bottom 3, whether that be 30, 34, 35, whatever.

I believe we have the capability to survive, we have the goal scoring capacity, we may be able to improve our defending with more training time now we are on 1 game a week.

We are not dead yet.

Honestly, I wouldn't say we were better than any of them I'm afraid...recently they've all picked up points when they shouldn't or have fought back to get wins...we've done nothing like that...

[Amo69]

Ok what we already know was confirmed yesterday and hopefully can be address asap.  The following IMHO is very important if there is any chance of us staying up.

 

1) Bennett must not start again this season.

2) Weimann/Gabby must always start if fit

3) We must never play a back 5

4) We must stop trying to play passing football and be more direct.  Its doesnt have to be pretty anymore. (not that it ever really was).

 

Now the rest are very unlikely but also quite important.

 

5) We must sign a DM to help our current lightweight/poor midfield

6) We are crying out for new fullbacks

7) Baker must play everygame if fit. 

 

Would love fans to add to this or give their opinions.

[LondonLax]

The form guide favours our relegation rivals. Our best spell of form looks a long time ago now and we don't appear to be seeing an improvement any time soon.If anything we are getting worse.

[TheSufferingVilla]

I don't think we will get relegated because

a) Lerner would have no choice but to pump money in at January regardless if we were in with a chance of relegation. He's not stupid, relegation would not be in his plan, whatever it is.

Lamberts too good

c) Wehave Given, Vlaar and Bent, none of the teams in the relegation battle have anywhere near this quality in any of their individuals

 

My god, it's like you predicted the exact opposite of what would happen.

[claretman]

We need to win three matches in a row to stand any hope.  There is more chance of hell freezing over.

 

We seem to tick off a 'must win' game every week.  Does anyone really think we are going to beat Everton away?

[VillaForever1970]

I'm off to Everton, so we'll lose.

I controversial question... once we're relegated who is going to still follow, post about and support the Villa?

I appreciate its shit, but the way some people are going they wont even enjoy us winning games until we're back in the greatest league in the world!

[ender4]

- we only need to be better than 3 other clubs.

 

- we still have to play QPR, Reading & Wigan, so its still in our hands.

 

- 36 points would normally be enough to keep us up, the average over the last few years is just under 36 points.

This year may turn out to be one of the lower points total, so possibly 35 points will just about be enough.

 

- 14 games left, 15 more points may give us safety.  so 1 point per game on average.

[Raver50032]

Thats just so over the top and dramatic its untrue, no evidence of that apocalyptic scenario.

Lerner doesn't want to invest now because he is trying to strip back all the fat, if we go down and come up with a lean squad without any large wages there is nothing to say he wont invest from that point; no evidence whats so ever, trying to claim otherwise is just scaremongering for effect.

If we come up we will also get tv money as well, or do all other teams get tv money apart from Villa?

Seems like some Villa fans should experience relegation to give them some perspective and stop obsessing about money and staying in a league they are never going to win anyway. The way some people are talking its like they will refuse to celebrate a goal or a win in the championship next season...** disclaimer this is not saying relegation is a good thing**

Fair enough, I live my life with a half empty glass. Can't change that.

 

If my passion is deemed over the top, well, so be it.

 

Apart from Citeh (who changed owners - big time) and Toon (who were lucky that a lot of their decent players didn't actually go when they dropped down a league), who has ever benefitted from going down? Who has bounced back stronger with a genuine ability to challenge? Does anybody think it will happen here with the current owners?

 

Swansea and Stoke seem to have benefitted from a good road map - totally different styles of football, but effective on the pitch. They've been building for years... and years... We're going down on a shoe string of perceived austere poverty, seemingly with less fight than a collective of prunes on the turn (apart from the odd 20 minutes here and there). So, going down, for me, really will set us back for a long time. There ain't really a lot more family silver to sell off to strip it back - but then if we do... how much further will we fall?

 

So, I guess (and accept to a degree), we have to be patient, and then we go again... It shouldn't have gotten to this stage - not for this club. We are where we are though. 

 

And for the record, I saw relegation in 1986/87 - nowhere near as bad as what's happening now. Never the sense of stigma or embarrassment at the results or for being associated with the club. Yeah, and we nearly messed up the opportunity to come back up straight away even then...

 

The negative records we are creating this year/season alone justify my passion and 'over the topness.' I'm not scaremongering, just posting my opinion and thoughts - believe what you will. I will openly admit I was wrong, when I am proven wrong. Believe me, I hope I am... but my empty glass says it will stay empty for a goodly while yet.