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Relegation


Amo69

The Drop  

609 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Villa Go Down?

    • Yes
      238
    • No
      283
    • Unsure
      88


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It's all if, if, if this season, isn't it?

If we hadn't been as poor as we were, we would have been better.

True.

I dont know if you were referring to my post about Everton amongst others, but - if it is - I don't think it is particularly outlandish to point out that ONE result different and we would be up with a higly regarded Team built over many years.

The 'if' in this case is intended to bring about a little sense of perspective to some fans who seem close to despising their own Team.

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Our first nine games saw us gain six points and keep one clean sheet.

We've picked seven points up from our following five games and kept three clean sheets. Yes we conceded eight goals in those two games where we did concede but

considering the teams we were playing and the circumstances of some of those goals there is, in my opinion, some mitigation.

It's also worth remembering that as well as rebuilding the squad and the very young age of our team we've had abysmal luck with defensive injuries. It's bad enough having to change the defensive lineup game to game but

we're having to do it at some point during most games at the moment.

It has been difficult, but did anyone really expect it not to be? There are definite signs of improvement in performance and results, Not necessarily in the same game yet but things are improving.

Of course this means nothing if the improvement doesn't continue and I'd say the shoots of our recovery are still fragile but we have the opportunity in the next two games to really strengthen our League position

and confidence.

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Great post Pongo. Agree entirely.

A good few weeks ago I could have easily seen us rock bottom at New Year and that would have been hard to come back from. But in the past month or so, since the Norwich game, we have gradually seen consistent performances being put together even if the points weren't always coming in.

On Tuesday we also showed that, when needed, we can grind out a result and adapt our pretty football to a more direct approach.

This all gives me hope because I'm confident we will invest in January. It's really important, imo, to get at least 3 more points from the next two games. If we do, we could well surprise a few people against Liverpool and/or Chelsea - and then our season suddenly looks a lot better.

We're still in a precarious position but we're also a small run away from mid-table so these could be a big few weeks for AVFC but i'm feeling far more optimistic now, than say 6 weeks ago.

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as i look at the other teams in the premier league, i see the pool of teams in a similar predicament to us far larger than i had originally imagined. QPR, reading, southhampton, norwich, sunderland, wigan, newcastle, swansea, west ham, stoke, fulham and even though they are going well right now, the baggies.... 12 teams, none of whom fundamentally strike fear into me - they may be winning at the moment, but i don't fundamentally think they are teams that we should reasonably be expecting to lose against...

simple fact is, these are all games that we should go into without fear of losing to a team that is fundamentally better than ours... its simply not a case that the three or four teams around us are the only ones that we can reasonably expect to win...

and even when you look at many of the established teams, and in reaility, they're not really firing consistently either - chelsea, arsenal, liverpool, everton, spurs...

its all going to be about little runs of results, spurts of momentum that see teams through to safety... west brom and norwich have just had one... southampton and wigan too, to a lesser extent... i don't think any of the 12 teams i mentioned will consistently manage strong results for the duration of the season... west brom losing to swansea last night a perfect example...

two winnable games coming up - win at least one of those and draw the other, and we have momentum that would see us happily open up some space from the relagation zone...

who knows how good we can be playing with some confidence.... stevie ireland, barry bannan, definitely confidence players in my mind... get them playing with a smile, bentekkers slamming them in and our defence believing that they can continue to keep clean sheets and villa park will be rocking again...

the beauty of playing with a team of kids, is that often they are unburdened with the fear of defeat...

it must have been having had a good night's sleep, but things are definitely looking somewhat rosier today, even if nothing's actually changed...

clean sheet on saturday, and i may even venture a little smile...

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We've picked seven points up from our following five games and kept three clean sheets. Yes we conceded eight goals in those two games where we did concede but

considering the teams we were playing and the circumstances of some of those goals there is, in my opinion, some mitigation.

If we keep up the pattern of three clean sheets and eight goals allowed every five games, we'll be okay, especially if we can score at least a goal in four of five games.

Three clean sheets => at least three points. By the pigeonhole principle, at least two of those would be wins (and thus at least seven points).

If you're going to concede goals, it's best to concede them in bunches, rather than consistently. Another team that concedes eight goals every five games but instead gives up 2 in 3 games and 1 in 2 games is not likely to get a lot of points, unless they're prolific at scoring.

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It's all if, if, if this season, isn't it?

If we hadn't been as poor as we were, we would have been better.

True.

Yes it's a fine line, if McLeish had won that Bolton game and held on v Spurs (1-1) hed probably still be our manager now.

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Massive game saturday. 3 points would shoot us up the table.

I think that we will win on Saturday but whether we do or not I'm very confident that we will finish the season comfortably mid-table

Lambert has had a lot to sort out but recent perfromances have shown that he is getting to grips with whats required - I'm expecting a few new faces in Jan and would not be in the least surprised if we are the unexpected form team of the second half of the season

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I think Ruddy out for 3 months is huge for Norwich, I expect them to go on a bad run. Can't believe QPR have 5 points from 14 games, to expected to get 35 points from 24 games is a bit of an ask so if we can get 3 there Saturday it'll be huge.

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3 points behind Liverpool, 1 point behind Newcastle, same points as Sunderland.

Same number of points Lambert had after 14 games with Norwich last season.

Suddenly not looking quite so bad is it?

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3 points behind Liverpool, 1 point behind Newcastle, same points as Sunderland.

Same number of points Lambert had after 14 games with Norwich last season.

Suddenly not looking quite so bad is it?

I've been saying it all along - give PL a dozen games to sort out his squad and get them playing to his style and we can start to look up the table. A few more of Given. Hutton, Warnock, Dunne, NZog etc gone in January and a few more Benteke's, Lowton's and Westwood's in a the future will look rosy - Mid-table easily.

Europa League anyone?

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If we can beat Norwich I fancy us for a cup win so europa league may not be out of the question

I have been staying quietly confident of this also happening Richard.

The possibilities of a few up sets our way and we just beat Norwich it would look very interesting indeed.

.

who would of thought that the manager weve hated the most ever just about kept us up, yet the manager we all favour and support will be taking us down

Ok going along with your confidence of this will you wager with me £100 that I think we won't and that we will stay up this season and putting your money where your mouth is?.

However! ....Whoever loses does not pay the other winner in cash but instead donates the £100 to either the Stan Petrov Appeal or to Acorns.

So if we stay up I win and you donate the £100, if were relegated I donate the £100.

Do you accept my proposal AndyBM?

.

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who would of thought that the manager weve hated the most ever just about kept us up, yet the manager we all favour and support will be taking us down

Who would of (sic) thought that?

A minority?

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I've been saying it all along - give PL a dozen games to sort out his squad and get them playing to his style and we can start to look up the table. A few more of Given. Hutton, Warnock, Dunne, NZog etc gone in January and a few more Benteke's, Lowton's and Westwood's in a the future will look rosy - Mid-table easily.

Europa League anyone?

No, not this season and not for the forseeable future either unless as Richard states we are successful in one of the cup competitions or Randy sells to a very rich Irab, but i do admire your optimism, even if it is misplaced.
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