Relegation - Merged

[spoonman]

I mean't wins tally lads. WINS TALLY. trolls.

[P3te]

I would love to know what your basing the likelihoods on.

You have given 80% to blackburn who have lost there last 3 yet 0% for Wigan who should be unbeaten in 4, but for some very dodgy refereeing.

im basing it on the likelihood of it happening. you don't get points for bad refereeing decisions

where do you see wigan getting 8 points more than us (not 8 points, 8 more than we manage) from united, arsenal, fulham, newcastle, blackburn and wolves exactly? they'll get nothing from united, arsenal and newcastle, barring a miracle. they'll probably beat wolves on the last day, but do you see them also beating fulham and blackburn? that's if we lose every game too, if we draw 2 more they'll need TEN points from all those games

that's not going to happen

and if it does, we'd also need 2 of the other 3 to pick up 8/7 more than us (depending on the team), but blackburn play wigan, which they can't both win

I dont see where they will get them from but at the same time where do you see Blackburn getting points from?

Your analysis says that if the remaining 6 fixtures were played out 10 times, Blackburn would finish above us a whopping 8 times out of those 10. I just have absolutely no idea whats behind your thinking here?

blackburn have far and away the easiest run in of the bottom 6. perhaps i was a little bit too optimistic on their behalf saying they'll get 8 more than us from those games. but i can see them drawing at liverpool, beating swansea and norwich, losing to spurs, beating wigan and losing to chelsea

that'd give them 10 points - they need 8 more than us to get past us, so if we only draw 2, which we might do, they should sneak past us

[Woodytom]

I would love to know what your basing the likelihoods on.

You have given 80% to blackburn who have lost there last 3 yet 0% for Wigan who should be unbeaten in 4, but for some very dodgy refereeing.

im basing it on the likelihood of it happening. you don't get points for bad refereeing decisions

where do you see wigan getting 8 points more than us (not 8 points, 8 more than we manage) from united, arsenal, fulham, newcastle, blackburn and wolves exactly? they'll get nothing from united, arsenal and newcastle, barring a miracle. they'll probably beat wolves on the last day, but do you see them also beating fulham and blackburn? that's if we lose every game too, if we draw 2 more they'll need TEN points from all those games

that's not going to happen

and if it does, we'd also need 2 of the other 3 to pick up 8/7 more than us (depending on the team), but blackburn play wigan, which they can't both win

I dont see where they will get them from but at the same time where do you see Blackburn getting points from?

Your analysis says that if the remaining 6 fixtures were played out 10 times, Blackburn would finish above us a whopping 8 times out of those 10. I just have absolutely no idea whats behind your thinking here?

blackburn have far and away the easiest run in of the bottom 6. perhaps i was a little bit too optimistic on their behalf saying they'll get 8 more than us from those games. but i can see them drawing at liverpool, beating swansea and norwich, losing to spurs, beating wigan and losing to chelsea

that'd give them 10 points - they need 8 more than us to get past us, so if we only draw 2, which we might do, they should sneak past us

Fair enough. I think all teams have very similar run ins tbh. Norwich won at spurs today. Just impossible to call 95% of fixtures.

That said, I agree that we are probably safe as a result of this weekend. Another 1 or 2 points to make sure and I am confident we will bore the arse off everyone and get them. I wasnt at all confident last week and so I hold my hands up on that 1

[steve-67]

I don't think we'll get dragged into the relegation scrap proper this season but the fact that we are evenb talking about it is a disgrace and Randy should apologise to the fans for not listening. Crap season all round. Shocking. Next season, I honestly feel will be no better.

[briny_ear]

Changed my miind.

[Voinjama]

If I had to do my Aston Villa worst XI from the last 20 years, it would probably have 8 of the players currently at the club. the likes of Hutton, Heskey, Albrighton and co are just not good enough.

That is why impending relegation is hanging over the club.

[jackbauer24]

If I had to do my Aston Villa worst XI from the last 20 years, it would probably have 8 of the players currently at the club. the likes of Hutton, Heskey, Albrighton and co are just not good enough.

That is why impending relegation is hanging over the club.

I don't agree. Yes we have some poor players in this squad but the overall quality is not the worst we've ever had in Premier League history.

The blame lies at the door of AMC completely, even if he'd bought no-one of his own he should be able to get this squad higher in the league.

Heskey is rubbish yes; but MON bought him and got the team to 6th. Houllier had him in his squad and got us 9th (eventually!). Hutton is rubbish, but he's an AMC signing anyway - but worse than Jloyd Samuel?! Dunne's had a bad year, but worse than Zat Knight?

We've had, at least at some point for the campaign, some very good players that should have Villa way up the table. Bent is arguably one of the top 4 or 5 strikers we've ever had. Given is better than a at least 75% of our previous goalkeepers, Dunne, Ireland, N'Zogbia, Gabby all players most mid league teams would want easily. Even our youngsters (a handful of which I have accused of not being good enough too) are still no worst than Moore or Davis etc.

It's not our best squad. But it's nowhere near our worst either. On paper it's a top 10/12 team easily. AMC is at fault for it being any lower. Last season we underachieved, this year we've been disgusting.

[quizme]

Draws aren't enough i'm afraid. If we draw against Bolton we're going down.

No we wont, i guarantee you if we draw against Bolton we will stay up.

[Overdubber]

I also can see us staying up, like scraping the points toghether to reach a grand tally of 41 or so. Does not disguise the fact that we have played some pretty dire football this season, and our inability to hold on to a winning position is worrying indeed.

[Moorski]

Remaing Games of fellow relegation candidates;

Blackburn; Liverpool(h) Swansea(a) Norwich (h) Spurs(a) Wigan(h) Chelsea(a)

Bolton;Swansea(h) Villa(a) Sunderland(a) Spurs(h) WBA(h) Stoke(a)

Wigan;Man(h) Arsenal(a) Fulham(a) Newcastle(h) Blackburn(a) Wolves(h)

QPR;Swansea(h) WBA(a) Spurs(h) Chelsea(a) Stoke(h) Man City(a)

Wolves;Arsenal(h) Sunderland(a) Man City(h) Swansea(a) Everton

(h) Wigan(a)

Work that one out,It will be close as we have; Man Utd(a) Sunderland(h) Bolton(h) WBA(a) Spurs(h) Norwich(a)

[quizme]

Remaing Games of fellow relegation candidates;

Blackburn; Liverpool(h) Swansea(a) Norwich (h) Spurs(a) Wigan(h) Chelsea(a)

Bolton;Swansea(h) Villa(a) Sunderland(a) Spurs(h) WBA(h) Stoke(a)

Wigan;Man(h) Arsenal(a) Fulham(a) Newcastle(h) Blackburn(a) Wolves(h)

QPR;Swansea(h) WBA(a) Spurs(h) Chelsea(a) Stoke(h) Man City(a)

Wolves;Arsenal(h) Sunderland(a) Man City(h) Swansea(a) Everton

(h) Wigan(a)

Work that one out,It will be close as we have; Man Utd(a) Sunderland(h) Bolton(h) WBA(a) Spurs(h) Norwich(a)

As said before, three of them will not take 8 points more than us.

[Villarocker]

Remaing Games of fellow relegation candidates;

Blackburn; Liverpool(h) Swansea(a) Norwich (h) Spurs(a) Wigan(h) Chelsea(a)

Bolton;Swansea(h) Villa(a) Sunderland(a) Spurs(h) WBA(h) Stoke(a)

Wigan;Man(h) Arsenal(a) Fulham(a) Newcastle(h) Blackburn(a) Wolves(h)

QPR;Swansea(h) WBA(a) Spurs(h) Chelsea(a) Stoke(h) Man City(a)

Wolves;Arsenal(h) Sunderland(a) Man City(h) Swansea(a) Everton

(h) Wigan(a)

Work that one out,It will be close as we have; Man Utd(a) Sunderland(h) Bolton(h) WBA(a) Spurs(h) Norwich(a)

I would say the maximum points each team could get this season is:

Blackburn = 40

Bolton = 43

Wigan = 41

QPR = 39

Wolves = 34

That would be the very maximum that each could get IMO but I doubt that each would get within 4-5 points of those totals. I guess it all comes down to who wants Premier League football most. Wolves are gone so it just leaves the 5 of us. At this moment in time I would say that QPR & Wigan will go down because they seem to have the hardest remaining fixtures.

If we lose against Bolton if it possible that they could be level on points with us after it. Blackburn have 3 winnable games in a row but the chances of them winning 3 in a row are pretty slim.

I just hope we take care of our own destiny and pick up a win or two to move away from trouble. It will be absolutely shameful if we have to rely on other club's failures to secure our Premier League status!

[Seat68]

If I had to do my Aston Villa worst XI from the last 20 years, it would probably have 8 of the players currently at the club. the likes of Hutton, Heskey, Albrighton and co are just not good enough.

That is why impending relegation is hanging over the club.

Albrighton? Really, you think he is one of the worst players that Villa has had from the last 20 years?

[Jimzk5]

To put in simply, for us to go down we have to lose every one of our remaining 6 games and the teams below have to win 2 and draw 3 to put them 1 point above us. I said months ago 35 points would be enough, 38 would be gauranteed, so we need to won 1 more from bolton sunderland and wba. It would be q big turn around for us to go down now. Not impossible, but improbable.

[steve-67]

If I had to do my Aston Villa worst XI from the last 20 years, it would probably have 8 of the players currently at the club. the likes of Hutton, Heskey, Albrighton and co are just not good enough.

That is why impending relegation is hanging over the club.

I don't agree. Yes we have some poor players in this squad but the overall quality is not the worst we've ever had in Premier League history.

The blame lies at the door of AMC completely, even if he'd bought no-one of his own he should be able to get this squad higher in the league.

Heskey is rubbish yes; but MON bought him and got the team to 6th. Houllier had him in his squad and got us 9th (eventually!). Hutton is rubbish, but he's an AMC signing anyway - but worse than Jloyd Samuel?! Dunne's had a bad year, but worse than Zat Knight?

We've had, at least at some point for the campaign, some very good players that should have Villa way up the table. Bent is arguably one of the top 4 or 5 strikers we've ever had. Given is better than a at least 75% of our previous goalkeepers, Dunne, Ireland, N'Zogbia, Gabby all players most mid league teams would want easily. Even our youngsters (a handful of which I have accused of not being good enough too) are still no worst than Moore or Davis etc.

It's not our best squad. But it's nowhere near our worst either. On paper it's a top 10/12 team easily. AMC is at fault for it being any lower. Last season we underachieved, this year we've been disgusting.

Jack, I don't know how old you are mate, but I watched Billy McBingo's team go down in the 1980's. It was a much better team that this one. Martin Keown, Paul Elliot, Tony Dorigo, Steve Hodge, Steve Hunt, Garry Thompson etc. Billy didn't get the best out of the players. McLeish is doing exactly the same job. If not this season, then the next, we'll be relegated. Clearly, Bent is a good player, why isn't McEck getting the best out of the players. Because he's a crap Manager.

[Pongotastic]

Last season we had Bent, Downing and Young and were awful. This season we haven't had Downing or Young and have been without Bent for a good few games now. Take the three best players out of any team and they'll struggle. Villa are no different. Not all about Eck.

[Mantis]

Last season we had Bent, Downing and Young and were awful. This season we haven't had Downing or Young and have been without Bent for a good few games now. Take the three best players out of any team and they'll struggle. Villa are no different. Not all about Eck.

We were nowhere near this bad last season. When we had Bent, Young and Downing together we actually weren't bad. "Eck"'s negative tactics are strangling the life out of the club.

[theunderstudy]

Last season we had Bent, Downing and Young and were awful. This season we haven't had Downing or Young and have been without Bent for a good few games now. Take the three best players out of any team and they'll struggle. Villa are no different. Not all about Eck.

We were nowhere near this bad last season. When we had Bent, Young and Downing together we actually weren't bad. "Eck"'s negative tactics are strangling the life out of the club.

I'd say we are as bad as we were last year.

FWIW I think and hope we've done enough to be safe now. Beat Bolton or Sunderland and it's assured.

[Hanky]

We were poor last year but at least we had won 7 home games by this point (which isn't much to shout about after spending loads in January as well). To win four home games is nothing short of an absolute disgrace.

[Pongotastic]

Last season we had Bent, Downing and Young and were awful. This season we haven't had Downing or Young and have been without Bent for a good few games now. Take the three best players out of any team and they'll struggle. Villa are no different. Not all about Eck.

We were nowhere near this bad last season. When we had Bent, Young and Downing together we actually weren't bad. "Eck"'s negative tactics are strangling the life out of the club.

I disagree. I remember the West Ham game and the desperation of a win there and squeaking past them. The two seasons are a very similar. Only difference this season is that we don't have the attacking flair to accommodate an expansive game.