maqroll Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Tanks in Tahrir Square...Morsi under house arrest...Coup in full effect. This is history before our eyes, fascinating stuff. Scary time to live in Egypt, though. Let's hope the army calls for elections ASAP. Not holding my breath though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lp_villa830 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 What happens if in the next election another Morsi type candidate wins? Another coup or do they just get on with democracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 What happens if in the next election another Morsi type candidate wins? Unlikely (the opposition vote was split last time because the alternative was a candidate from the old Mubarak regime), but even if it was another MB win, I don't think the new guy would be foolish enough to do what Morsi did last week and call on Egyptians to go and fight in Syria, however much he may have been pressured by the MB in Qatar (which is currently bank rolling Egypt) to do so. The army have been trying to keep a lid on Islamic radicalism in Egypt (its spiritual home) for decades and Morsi crossed the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lp_villa830 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 I am not exactly up to date on the whole situation and what you say makes sense, only an idiot would call for that from his own people. But after a coup their will always be people fighting against each other for influence so i would expect the opposition vote to be split again. Whereas those supporters of the MB are now even more likely to support their candidate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 But after a coup their will always be people fighting against each other for influence so i would expect the opposition vote to be split again. Whereas those supporters of the MB are now even more likely to support their candidate. Could happen, as you say. More worrying short term is a bunch of the more *ahem*, "hard core" MB types deciding they don't really like this turn of events and indulging in some insurgency action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFCforever1991 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lp_villa830 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 But after a coup their will always be people fighting against each other for influence so i would expect the opposition vote to be split again. Whereas those supporters of the MB are now even more likely to support their candidate. Could happen, as you say. More worrying short term is a bunch of the more *ahem*, "hard core" MB types deciding they don't really like this turn of events and indulging in some insurgency action. Had not considered that, but you are right. If they are already active in Syria only take a few of those to kick it off in their own back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVFCforever1991 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 Would dirty hands out of Egypt include no longer funding the Egyption military? bit of a dilema here for the freedom lovin' US of A, democratically elected Islamic idiot vs. U.S. sponsored military Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
privateer Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 What happens if in the next election another Morsi type candidate wins? Unlikely (the opposition vote was split last time because the alternative was a candidate from the old Mubarak regime), but even if it was another MB win, I don't think the new guy would be foolish enough to do what Morsi did last week and call on Egyptians to go and fight in Syria, however much he may have been pressured by the MB in Qatar (which is currently bank rolling Egypt) to do so. The army have been trying to keep a lid on Islamic radicalism in Egypt (its spiritual home) for decades and Morsi crossed the line. A question for you, AWOL, in your capacity as resident MENA expert. How do you view Qatari involvement in the region? It seems their hand is stuck into everything in the region these days - when they are not otherwise occupied investing vast sums in the Western world to diversify their interests and buying World Cup hosting rights. Now, when one looks at the duplicitous role Pakistan has been playing for a long time as far as Afghanistan is concerned, are Qatar doing the same only to an greater extent both geographically and in the number of hands they are playing in the games? I lived and worked there for a time so I have some understanding of how it is there and my gut feel is they are being "multiplicitous". I know it's not an actual word but it's one that formed in my mind when I was thinking about it. I can't help but feel they are playing a lot of interests off against each other in a way that would make Pakistan and its ISI appreciate their deftness. I know they are well capable of thinking and planning strategically and playing a long game but what is your view? What are they up to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Egyptianvillan Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Would dirty hands out of Egypt include no longer funding the Egyption military? bit of a dilema here for the freedom lovin' US of A, democratically elected Islamic idiot vs. U.S. sponsored military USA has made these countries dependent on them. (Not their fault of the Arab countries couldn't see it coming) but I feel America has a hand in everything. Mubarak ruled the country as if it was his own personal family (punishing who he liked breaking human rights) and bank (stealing millions from the country and taking) all the time America supporting him because his was their puppet in the Middle East. Now that the Egyptian people voted in a president from day one America and its media casted doubt and worry over the Egyptian people and all because he had his own views on Israel and America. Now before anyone jumps the gun. I don't think Morsi or any other person would have succeed due to a lack of funds and the inpatient nature of the Egyptian people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Egyptianvillan Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 (edited) Would dirty hands out of Egypt include no longer funding the Egyption military? bit of a dilema here for the freedom lovin' US of A, democratically elected Islamic idiot vs. U.S. sponsored military Ps why is he a Islamic idiot? Please explain because i want to comment but I dont want to jump to conclusions Edited July 4, 2013 by Egyptianvillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Awol Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 @Privateer: my view on Qatar, FWIW, is that they fear a Saudi takeover aimed at grabbing their resources, specifically natural gas. They have some justification for this following just such an attack (or more accurately an aggressive probe rather than an invasion) which was repelled and passed off as rogue Bedouin. Few Bedu have a mechanised armour capability butthat's another story.. To forestall any future attempts to pinch their stuff the Qatari's have sought to use their wealth to embed themselves into the international scene as a significant player. How? By raising their profile politically (foreign interventions and creating a dependent customer base for LNG i.e. the UK for one) socially (world cup, aid programmes etc) and financially (now thoroughly intervoven in global markets, such as their removal would cause a global market crash). Why they lean towards the MB agenda (of Egyptian origin) for the ME is a question I can't really answer, but it is creating a growing problem that is catching broader attention - see Emir's recent 'abdication'... Let's hope his son is more sensible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
privateer Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 Thanks, AWOL, I appreciate the response and that is some very interesting information. I haven't really stayed up to date on what is going on there since I departed but have retained some interest. I can see why their gas reserves would be coveted but I had no idea there had been any incursions into their territory. Clearly I need to pay more attention! What you say makes a lot of sense and fits in with my view of them as smart operators but then I see other things they do and get one of those "Hang on a sec" moments. Like allowing the Taliban to open for business and raise their flag over their building there, for example. That one puzzled me as have a few other things that made me question their agenda. I was certainly surprised by the abdication and will be interested to see if there is any shifting of policy. It's impossible not to have quite some admiration for them, IMO. They are a tiny place with hardly any actual citizens but they have maneuvered themselves into position in very short order Damn, getting this posted was hassle! I remember the internet in Qatar as being gash but I'd forgotten how crap in can be in other non-Western countries. Took me an hour to sort out the connection problems - I really have been spoiled by fast, stable broadband in England! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrackpotForeigner Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 (edited) Would dirty hands out of Egypt include no longer funding the Egyption military? bit of a dilema here for the freedom lovin' US of A, democratically elected Islamic idiot vs. U.S. sponsored military Ps why is he a Islamic idiot? Please explain because i want to comment but I dont want to jump to conclusions I think Chris was saying that having Morsi ruling the country (badly) according to his idea of Islam is probably just as bad as having a US-supported military in charge. Or, on second reading, that having Morsi ruling the country (badly) according to his idea of Islam is probably just as bad for the US as having to pay cash to buy influence with the Egyptian military in charge. Edited July 4, 2013 by CrackpotForeigner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meath_Villan Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 When the new guy is elected ...will he bring charges against the military coup to show hes not to be messed with ? If not what happens if the generals dont like what hes doing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarewsEyebrowDesigner Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 How many times are they going to do this? I mean, is it likely that, say, another organised Islamic party sneaks in to power via a free and fair election, will the cosmopolitan crowd look to stage another coup, and another until they get the free-thinking secular chap? Is there such a chap and does he stand a chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 (edited) What happens if in the next election another Morsi type candidate wins? Another coup or do they just get on with democracy. It all depends on what he likes for breakfast If he has 1 egg he's fine but if he has two its all over for him Edited July 4, 2013 by AshVilla Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjmooney Posted July 4, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted July 4, 2013 The paradox of democracy. Hitler stood for democratic election in 1933, and one of his manifesto pledges was to do away with democracy. He got voted in (admittedly with a minority of the vote due to the left being split, surprise surprise), and true to his word scrapped elections forthwith. Be careful what you wish for. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lp_villa830 Posted July 4, 2013 Share Posted July 4, 2013 What happens if in the next election another Morsi type candidate wins? Another coup or do they just get on with democracy. It all depends on what he likes for breakfast If he has 1 egg he's fine but if he has two its all over for him That seems more than reasonable. What did Cameron have for breakfast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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