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The Arab Spring and "the War on Terror"


legov

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So, a couple of weeks after Egyptian claims that they've found a cure for AIDS (that can be incorporated into kebabs!), they've condemned 500+ Muslim Brotherhood sympathisers to death.

 

There is a riot and a dead policeman involved - but did all 528 get a piece of plod?

 

A well organised kicking that.

Edited by Xann
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  • 2 months later...

This war will be a disaster, it won't bring peace, democracy or stability to the region. I doubt Sadam has any weapons of mass destruction or the means to create any. The country will end up a fractured failed state, and a breeding ground for terrorism and we will have succeeded only in fanning the flames of hatred.

Those were my views back in 2003, and the views of millions of anti-war protesters which were completely ignored by a war hungry Blair government, a complicit conservative opposition and a blood thirsty media.

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Things seem to be moving terribly quickly in Iraq.

What now after Mosul and Tikrit?

Indeed, ISIS has moved at Blitzkrieg pace since Monday but I think they've made the easy gains now in the Sunni dominated northern and eastern regions.

Baghdad is a largely Shia city these days and both the army (Shia dominated) and the Shia militias will fight much more effectively to halt that advance if it reaches 'their' turf, and they also heavy lots of heavy metal in terms of armour which can roll over ISIS formations.

BUT, given the fact the government has for six months tried and failed to remove ISIS from Fallujah and Ramadi, I wouldn't hold much hope of them retaking the territory they've lost this week any time soon.

The interesting question is what Turkey and Iran decide to do next and whether ISIS are prepared to try and take on the Kurds - whose Peshmerga formations are the most effective fighters out there.

It was always on the cards that the Shia vs Sunni conflict would merge across Syria and Iraq, if the blowback sucks in even more neighbouring countries then it could be quite a dust up. The Saudis are certainly nervous and also have AQ in Yemen (which domestically is sinking further by the day) to contend with on their southern border - but then you reap what you sow...

The other interesting dynamic is the splits within the ranks of Sunni militants, as some gravitate towards al Baghdadi's "ultras" in ISIS and others stick with AQ central led by Zawahiri out of Pakistan. That matters in the sense of recruiting for and growing the respective organisations. It would appear the 100's of British militants now involved

are joining the more extreme mob.

The irony for UK is that an ISIS dominated 'state' in the heart of Arabia really is a strategic security threat, in a way Iraq under Saddam never was.

Oops.

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The fighting in Syria is encouraged, resourced, and prolonged by other countries who hope to gain from it.

As an example, look at... Israel, whose naked landgrabbing knows no bounds.

 

 

Quite right... I'll bet those corrupt bloody Israelis planned all this with Mrs Thatcher 

Edited by A.J.Rimmer
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Al Quds forces from the Iranian Revolutionary Guards now reportedly operating in tandem with Iraqi forces around Tikrit.  With spectacular irony the US is considering Iraqi requests for air strikes against ISIS positions, so in theory we could see US air power firing on jihadi targets in support of Iranian offensive operations inside Iraq.... Meanwhile in Syria a few short months ago, we were considering air strikes against the Iranian allied Assad regime in support of the same Jihadis.

 

The casual observer might conclude that for some 15 years western foreign policy has been formulated by chimps throwing their own faeces at a dartboard. It would be hard to disagree.    

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This war will be a disaster, it won't bring peace, democracy or stability to the region. I doubt Sadam has any weapons of mass destruction or the means to create any. The country will end up a fractured failed state, and a breeding ground for terrorism and we will have succeeded only in fanning the flames of hatred.

Those were my views back in 2003, and the views of millions of anti-war protesters which were completely ignored by a war hungry Blair government, a complicit conservative opposition and a blood thirsty media.

 

I too am on record as saying we would never bring democracy to such places.  I did business with these people for 25 years and trust me, they are not like us.

 

I differ however, in my belief that we should have gone into Afghanistan and Iraq as they had a history of attacking our friends and allies.  Our mistake was to stay there.  We should have left them to sort out their mess by themselves, and warned them that if we ever needed to come back, they would all be off to see Allah. 

 

Personally, I'm delighted they are all too busy right now to bother with killing us... though that will change with time!  

Edited by A.J.Rimmer
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So... you think we were right to go in and start fires, but should have left earlier? And your plan for ensuring future stability after our destabilising interference was to tell them to sort out our mess and be nice to each other or else...

Bit of a **** up plan that IMO.

Edited by Kingfisher
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So... you think we were right to go in and start fires, but should have left earlier? And your plan for ensuring future stability after our destabilising interference was to tell them to sort out our mess and be nice to each other or else...

Bit of a **** up plan that IMO.

It was the right plan for Afghanistan, the Taliban harboured and gave aid to the planners of 9/11 and should have been hit with such speed and violence that it left no doubt in anyone's mind that f'ing with the west was a really, really bad idea. In the event aversion to taking casualties allowed AQ core to slip away from Tora Bora into Pakistan, instead of being totally wiped out by Christmas 2001.

 

The mistake, as AJ says, was sticking around and trying to drag them from the 7th century into the 21st when they were quite happy where they were - and will head straight back there as soon as we leave. 

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"This is what winning looks like" 

 

This is a great documentary about trying to drag Afghanistan from the 7th century, and basically handing control back over to the Afghan security forces. They are completely **** useless. Highly recommend it

 

Edited by AVFCforever1991
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Go in there fast and give 'em hell, ...you make it sound like a computer game. Back in the real world...

It is called strategic raiding, actual military doctrine and very much "the real world".
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This war will be a disaster, it won't bring peace, democracy or stability to the region. I doubt Sadam has any weapons of mass destruction or the means to create any. The country will end up a fractured failed state, and a breeding ground for terrorism and we will have succeeded only in fanning the flames of hatred.

Those were my views back in 2003, and the views of millions of anti-war protesters which were completely ignored by a war hungry Blair government, a complicit conservative opposition and a blood thirsty media.

 

I too am on record as saying we would never bring democracy to such places.  I did business with these people for 25 years and trust me, they are not like us.

 

 

 

 

I suspect you might be wrong.

 

I suspect the majority want their kids to grow up in a better world than they did, with better skills and happier times. I suspect the vast majority are exactly like us and would rather their kids prosper than be suicide bombers, torturers or meat.

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It was the right plan for Afghanistan, the Taliban harboured and gave aid to the planners of 9/11

I thought the Saudi's stayed in Saudi Arabia?

The financiers certainly did, others were on the planes... But AQ was and always has been a pan Ummah effort. There's a veritable kaleidoscope of nationalities fighting under their various banners these days.
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Go in there fast and give 'em hell, ...you make it sound like a computer game. Back in the real world...

It is called strategic raiding, actual military doctrine and very much "the real world".
Is that like 'collateral damage' for blown up innocents? Or 'strategic withdrawal' for we've **** up again?
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