HanoiVillan Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Right, Spurs should be considered >50% likelihood to finish 4th, but fundamentally there's a quarter of the season remaining so loads can happen yet. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bose Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Yesterday was a shock. Lots of football to be played still and like someone said we’ve been pretty inconsistent since the draw against Sheffield Utd but we’re still fourth. Ten cup finals left in the league, one match at a time and we’ll see where it takes us. I’m still confident and hopeful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted March 11 VT Supporter Share Posted March 11 Can't be quite sure with the new format, but it seems like it will be easier to get out of the groups in next year's CL: Places 1-8 (in one 'Swiss' format league of all 36 teams) qualify for the last 16 Places 9-24 go into a play-off round Only places 25-36 are knocked out immediately And that's without considering the additional revenue, the boost to a UEFA coefficient (which helps with seeding in future tournaments we might qualify for), and just the achievement of finally playing in the Champions League. Not like this needed saying, but of course we want to qualify and we will be ready for it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishywashy Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted March 11 VT Supporter Share Posted March 11 3 minutes ago, wishywashy said: What is the sorting criteria on this table? It's not title odds, it could be UCL spots but that's inconclusive. Do they, like many of our fans it seems, also not realise that we are actually still 4th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishywashy Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 (edited) 6 minutes ago, fightoffyour said: What is the sorting criteria on this table? It's not title odds, it could be UCL spots but that's inconclusive. Do they, like many of our fans it seems, also not realise that we are actually still 4th? I think it's the projected average final position, although they don't make it very clear. Chelsea are a few spots higher, Palace are a few spots lower, etc. Suggests that CL is still very achievable, regardless. Edited March 11 by wishywashy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted March 11 Moderator Share Posted March 11 Some massive games in the run in that we wouldn't normally have thought were important. Firstly this week, as well as beating Ajax ourselves, we could really do with Arsenal beating Porto and West Ham beating Freiberg - those two are behind in their ties but if they could pull out wins it'd go a long way to securing that 5th Champions league place. Chelsea against Man Utd on 4th April is also huge - we could really do with Chelsea winning that one, if they do, and Utd lose to Arsenal and Liverpool, they can only get a maximum of 21 more points which at the very, very worst would leave us needing 13 from our remaining games. I think it's possible we might go into mid-April on the back of four straight Premier league losses - our run is really, really tough - it'd be nice if we do to still hold some sort of advantage - one win from West Ham, Wolves or City would give us 58 points from 31 games - if United lose to Chelsea and Liverpool and also get just 3 points from their next three, they'll have 50 from 31 and that eight point lead might be enough to see us home. The European results are going to be huge - if Arsenal and West Ham go out, then it'll be about battling Spurs for 4th and I think that'll be tough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 3 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: if Arsenal and West Ham go out, then it'll be about battling Spurs for 4th and I think that'll be tough. It depends. If Freiburg then go onto win the whole thing then sure, but with us and Liverpool in strong positions, and City too, it should be enough. We could do with PSV beating Dortmund too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 3 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: Some massive games in the run in that we wouldn't normally have thought were important. Firstly this week, as well as beating Ajax ourselves, we could really do with Arsenal beating Porto and West Ham beating Freiberg - those two are behind in their ties but if they could pull out wins it'd go a long way to securing that 5th Champions league place. Chelsea against Man Utd on 4th April is also huge - we could really do with Chelsea winning that one, if they do, and Utd lose to Arsenal and Liverpool, they can only get a maximum of 21 more points which at the very, very worst would leave us needing 13 from our remaining games. I think it's possible we might go into mid-April on the back of four straight Premier league losses - our run is really, really tough - it'd be nice if we do to still hold some sort of advantage - one win from West Ham, Wolves or City would give us 58 points from 31 games - if United lose to Chelsea and Liverpool and also get just 3 points from their next three, they'll have 50 from 31 and that eight point lead might be enough to see us home. The European results are going to be huge - if Arsenal and West Ham go out, then it'll be about battling Spurs for 4th and I think that'll be tough. Yup spot on. We really need to get 4 points as a minimum out of these next 3 games imo. Brentford Chelsea and Liverpool in their next 3 games. They could conceivably get only 1 or 2 points out of those games. We are all Arsenal and West Ham fans Tuesday and Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted March 11 Moderator Share Posted March 11 3 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said: If Freiburg then go onto win the whole thing then sure, but with us and Liverpool in strong positions, and City too, it should be enough. With the points for a win and the points for advancement in each round, we could do with every result available I think. Liverpool and City are (sickeningly) a saving grace on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted March 11 Moderator Share Posted March 11 I still love the idea of us in a Conference league semi-final or final, knowing that a win will put us into the Champions league through our league placing. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herman22 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 So with 10 games remaining we are in 4th. I’m going to split those 10 three categories: Expected loss so anything is a bonus City (a), Arsenal (a), Liverpool (h) Tough games but we should expect to get something West Ham (a), Wolves (h), Chelsea (h), Brighton (a) Must win Brentford (h), Bournemouth (h), Palace (a) I think if we win 4-5 of those game we should still finish in top 5 which is a massive achievement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted March 11 VT Supporter Share Posted March 11 6 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: I still love the idea of us in a Conference league semi-final or final, knowing that a win will put us into the Champions league through our league placing. For the final it would be too much to take. If we could be in that position in the semi, what a reward that would be already for finishing at least as runner up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post omariqy Posted March 11 Popular Post Share Posted March 11 (edited) 11 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: With the points for a win and the points for advancement in each round, we could do with every result available I think. Liverpool and City are (sickeningly) a saving grace on this one. The more German teams that go out the better regardless of us, City and Liverpool being favourites. You never know in tournament football what will happen. Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen are likely to go quite far in their respective competitions. Therefore, we really need Freiburg and Dortmund to exit and make sure we have at least 1 or 2 more teams than that left who are picking up points. This week’s games to look out for UCL Arsenal v Porto (0-1) - If Arsenal win then that is 0.375 to our points total Dortumund v PSV (1-1) - you would expect Dortmund to win that and go through - 0.429 for their total UEL West Ham v Freiburg (0-1) - as per Arsenal - 0.375 Bayer Leverkusen v Qarabag (2-2) - as per Dortmund - 0.429 Brighton v Roma (0-4) - Brighton are out but if they can win the tie at least then it will be 0.25 for our total Liverpool v Sparta Prague (5-1) - as per the above 0.375 UECL Aston Villa v Ajax (0-0) - as per the above 0.375 That would leave the following Germany - 16.358 England - 16.375 Edited March 11 by omariqy 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Okonokos Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 4 minutes ago, omariqy said: The more German teams that go out the better regardless of us, City and Liverpool being favourites. You never know in tournament football what will happen. Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen are likely to go quite far in their respective competitions. Therefore, we really need Freiburg and Dortmund to exit and make sure we have at least 1 or 2 more teams than that left who are picking up points. This week’s games to look out for UCL Arsenal v Porto (0-1) - If Arsenal win then that is 0.375 to our points total Dortumund v PSV (1-1) - you would expect Dortmund to win that and go through - 0.429 for their total UEL West Ham v Freiburg (0-1) - as per Arsenal - 0.375 Bayer Leverkusen v Qarabag (2-2) - as per Dortmund - 0.429 Brighton v Roma (0-4) - Brighton are out but if they can win the tie at least then it will be 0.25 for our total Liverpool v Sparta Prague (5-1) - as per the above 0.375 UECL Aston Villa v Ajax (0-0) - as per the above 0.375 That would leave the following Germany - 16.358 England - 16.375 Don't you get bonus points for round progression? Or is that included in the 0.375 and 0.429? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 7 minutes ago, Okonokos said: Don't you get bonus points for round progression? Or is that included in the 0.375 and 0.429? Yup included. So 2 points for a win i.e. 0.25 for England and 1 point for progression i.e. 0.125. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 19 minutes ago, omariqy said: The more German teams that go out the better regardless of us, City and Liverpool being favourites. You never know in tournament football what will happen. Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen are likely to go quite far in their respective competitions. Therefore, we really need Freiburg and Dortmund to exit and make sure we have at least 1 or 2 more teams than that left who are picking up points. This week’s games to look out for UCL Arsenal v Porto (0-1) - If Arsenal win then that is 0.375 to our points total Dortumund v PSV (1-1) - you would expect Dortmund to win that and go through - 0.429 for their total UEL West Ham v Freiburg (0-1) - as per Arsenal - 0.375 Bayer Leverkusen v Qarabag (2-2) - as per Dortmund - 0.429 Brighton v Roma (0-4) - Brighton are out but if they can win the tie at least then it will be 0.25 for our total Liverpool v Sparta Prague (5-1) - as per the above 0.375 UECL Aston Villa v Ajax (0-0) - as per the above 0.375 That would leave the following Germany - 16.358 England - 16.375 Great insight, cheers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 32 minutes ago, omariqy said: The more German teams that go out the better regardless of us, City and Liverpool being favourites. You never know in tournament football what will happen. Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen are likely to go quite far in their respective competitions. Therefore, we really need Freiburg and Dortmund to exit and make sure we have at least 1 or 2 more teams than that left who are picking up points. This week’s games to look out for UCL Arsenal v Porto (0-1) - If Arsenal win then that is 0.375 to our points total Dortumund v PSV (1-1) - you would expect Dortmund to win that and go through - 0.429 for their total UEL West Ham v Freiburg (0-1) - as per Arsenal - 0.375 Bayer Leverkusen v Qarabag (2-2) - as per Dortmund - 0.429 Brighton v Roma (0-4) - Brighton are out but if they can win the tie at least then it will be 0.25 for our total Liverpool v Sparta Prague (5-1) - as per the above 0.375 UECL Aston Villa v Ajax (0-0) - as per the above 0.375 That would leave the following Germany - 16.358 England - 16.375 Great news! At least we continue to have the ability to win and secure 5th for ourselves, as well as completely cocking it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tezzaleed Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 (edited) All this info is useful to know, but in reality it looks like we're just stretched too far this season. we've been hanging on for a few weeks now with those injuries biting and tired legs slowly bringing our performance down. Sunday just hammered home how below par we are now and with mcginn out for 3 games I can't see us even finishing 5th now. I think it just shows how champs league is for those teams with a solid squad and not just a good first xi. Edited March 11 by tezzaleed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duke313 Posted March 11 Share Posted March 11 8 minutes ago, tezzaleed said: All this info is useful to know, but in reality it looks like we're just stretched too far this season. we've been hanging on for a few weeks now with those injuries biting and tired legs slowly bringing our performance down. Sunday just hammered home how below par we are now and with mcginn out for 3 games I can't see us even finishing 5th now. I think it just shows how champs league is for those teams with a solid squad and not just a good first xi. How’d Newcastle manage it last season then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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