paul514 Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 10 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said: You said you can't write off Manure and a stronger finisher from below. I think you can write off anyone below Manure Great, so 6th is possible and therefore no CL that’s all I care about from this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaVilla Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 We need 7 more wins from the remaining 13 games to more or less guarantee champions league football. There’s no longer much room for error when you consider the difficulty of the fixtures ahead, the thin squad and the extra Europa games. Target Wins Forrest (H), Luton (A), Spurs (H), wolves (H), brentford (H), Bournemouth (H), Chelsea (H) Harder fixtures West Ham (A), Man City (A), Brighton (A), Arsenal (A), Palace (A), Liverpool (H) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 (edited) 19 minutes ago, DakotaVilla said: Target Wins Forrest (H), Luton (A), Spurs (H), wolves (H), brentford (H), Bournemouth (H), Chelsea (H) Harder fixtures West Ham (A), Man City (A), Brighton (A), Arsenal (A), Palace (A), Liverpool (H) I think the bolded teams are more likely wins than some of the target wins. Some teams will/could be "on the beach" Edited February 18 by Kiwivillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 47 minutes ago, Tomaszk said: The performances were the exact reason for concern - there was no random reactionary panic. We played not-badly twice in two months. One was Sheff Utd and the other was a loss to Man Utd. Loads of caveats of course, but we deserved the results we got. Don't think we were great today but it was not bad at all and we did deserve the win. Had some smelly decisions to deal with as well. Pau's composure spreads confidence which should help us going forward. It'll take more years of Unai before my natural villa pessimism is eradicated. Even with our bad run though, we'd still finish 5th assuming we played like this for the rest of the season. We'd have to be considerably worse to mess this up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaVilla Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Ultimately it doesn’t really matter where we get the wins from but shows how important the forest, Luton and spurs games are. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaVilla Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 24 minutes ago, Keyblade said: Even with our bad run though, we'd still finish 5th assuming we played like this for the rest of the season. We'd have to be considerably worse to mess this up. Man Utd have an easier run in on paper than us. We could carry on at 1.5/1.75 points per game and they could still easily catch us. All it takes now is one more injury or red card to a key player and we are stuffed. Realistically, It’s basically a 3 team mini league for two (hopefully) champions league spots for the remaining third of the season and we have a slight head start that is countered by our relatively appalling injuries and the congestion and difficulty of our fixture list. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 23 minutes ago, DakotaVilla said: Man Utd have an easier run in on paper than us. We could carry on at 1.5/1.75 points per game and they could still easily catch us. All it takes now is one more injury or red card to a key player and we are stuffed. Realistically, It’s basically a 3 team mini league for two (hopefully) champions league spots for the remaining third of the season and we have a slight head start that is countered by our relatively appalling injuries and the congestion and difficulty of our fixture list. In our "bad" run they have beaten us twice and still only gained 3 points on us. They have a neutral goal difference. This is not some amazing team. It will take something drastic for them to finish above us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DakotaVilla Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 It wouldn’t take anything drastic at all. One month long injury or 3 game suspension to Martinez, Pau, mcginn, Luiz or Watkins and we’d be in real trouble. As for Man Utd, momentum is everything and they have it with them at the moment. Luton (A), Fulham (H) Man city (A) Everton (H) sheff utd (H) . They could easily win 4 out of those 5 and if they did would probably be within 4 points of us with 8/9 games to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 18 VT Supporter Share Posted February 18 8 hours ago, Pinebro said: We need to stop being so reactionary. After the man utd game people was acting like the season was over and there was nothing left to play for. We were 1 point off 4th and i nthe knockout stages in Europe. This forum just confuses me sometimes. I said last week the place had gone mental. People were genuinely getting worried about Chelsea It was nonsense. I said it then and I’ll say it now, the lowest we’ll finish is 6th, but to be honest even that’s unlikely. Realistically it’ll be 5th and pushing for 4th 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 18 VT Supporter Share Posted February 18 7 hours ago, paul514 said: you can’t write off Man Utd and a strong finisher from that group below IMO Nobody below Man Utd will get anywhere near us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan-scott Posted February 18 VT Supporter Share Posted February 18 17 minutes ago, DakotaVilla said: It wouldn’t take anything drastic at all. One month long injury or 3 game suspension to Martinez, Pau, mcginn, Luiz or Watkins and we’d be in real trouble. As for Man Utd, momentum is everything and they have it with them at the moment. Luton (A), Fulham (H) Man city (A) Everton (H) sheff utd (H) . They could easily win 4 out of those 5 and if they did would probably be within 4 points of us with 8/9 games to go. They’re just as likely to drop points in that run as they are to win them, with the away games particularly difficult and we could be double digits clear again. Better off taking it game by game as it’s impossible to predict 5/6/7 games ahead. As you say, anything could happen. What if United get a load of injuries and suspensions? They’d be in trouble too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Keyblade Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 52 minutes ago, DakotaVilla said: It wouldn’t take anything drastic at all. One month long injury or 3 game suspension to Martinez, Pau, mcginn, Luiz or Watkins and we’d be in real trouble. As for Man Utd, momentum is everything and they have it with them at the moment. Luton (A), Fulham (H) Man city (A) Everton (H) sheff utd (H) . They could easily win 4 out of those 5 and if they did would probably be within 4 points of us with 8/9 games to go. This is drastic. For them to catch us something out of the ordinary needs to happen. If things continue on their current path (which is apparently not good on our part), they don't catch us. If they win 4 out of the next 5 and only gain 1 point on us, but can somehow overhaul the other 4 points within 8/9 games? It all sounds a little unlikely doesn't it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Should be aiming for third, one of the top 3 will falter. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 As I’ve said a few times, the maths says United need 9/14 wins to catch us if we carry on with the same PPT as we have now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 12 minutes ago, Jareth said: Should be aiming for third, one of the top 3 will falter. Yep, fall short and we land 4th Should be looking up not down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 56 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: Nobody below Man Utd will get anywhere near us. That's what I said. It's absurd. If we averaged 1.3ppg for rest of season Newcastle would need 10 wins from 13 and they're rubbish away from home and I doubt we do as bad as 1.3ppg for rest of season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 1 hour ago, DakotaVilla said: It wouldn’t take anything drastic at all. One month long injury or 3 game suspension to Martinez, Pau, mcginn, Luiz or Watkins and we’d be in real trouble. As for Man Utd, momentum is everything and they have it with them at the moment. Luton (A), Fulham (H) Man city (A) Everton (H) sheff utd (H) . They could easily win 4 out of those 5 and if they did would probably be within 4 points of us with 8/9 games to go. Flip side is other teams could get key injuries. When Mings went down first game when I had barely processed Buendia injury I thought bugger 14th would be good but Emery has somehow pulled 1.96ppg this season same as his tenure last season. We gifted Manure 6pts like we often do but they still balls it up all season against "easy wins". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted February 18 VT Supporter Share Posted February 18 8 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said: That's what I said. It's absurd. If we averaged 1.3ppg for rest of season Newcastle would need 10 wins from 13 and they're rubbish away from home and I doubt we do as bad as 1.3ppg for rest of season Even if we only got 9 more points Newcastle would need a better PPG than they’ve managed all season to overtake us. It won’t happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 If United don’t win today they’re essentially 8/9 points behind us and it’s 13 to play. They’d need to go at nearly 1 more PPG to catch us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichW Posted February 18 Share Posted February 18 Just got to accept we are going to have good weeks and bad weeks. We can all try and predict how fixtures go but the league will throw up surprise results. Expected a draw today just because of our poor record there and with the injuries this week but up until their goal which we could have avoided it was a comfortable afternoon and I didn’t feel like the system played left us exposed (compared to the Newcastle/Chelsea games). Knew Wolves wouldn’t be an easy game for Spurs but again saw Cunha ruled out with injury during the week and thought that would leave them short but fair play they go to Spurs and win, didn’t expect that especially when they made it 1-1. Just need to back up today’s win with a win against Forest. Be good to make this 2/3 wins in a row and possibly put together an unbeaten run although this will be difficult. With Spurs not playing next week, going 5 points clear of them going into our game with Luton and them playing a Palace under a new manager will put a bit of pressure on them to win. Man Utd will probably win today but at least our result has put pressure on them needing to win. One slight frustration from todays game was Palhinha getting booked so his suspended for Man Utd v Fulham next weekend, they’ve caused Liverpool, Arsenal and Brighton issues away from this season but his gonna be a big miss for that game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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