Race for Champions League - 2023/2024

[Sulberto21]

Here’s a bold statement - I have a feeling that we’ll finish ahead of one of Arsenal or Liverpool. I don’t know why but I feel it in my waters.

[John]

18 hours ago, GlobalVillan said:

Yes I think our squad has shown itself to be significantly worse than Spurs squad several times this season. (By that I mean that we have struggled pretty much every time we have had to make a few changes ie Mostar, Everton,  Sheff Utd.....)

We won at their place when they had about 6 players out and whilst it was a good win, we barely got over the line. 

Had they had Maddison and Bentancur (they had many more out)! and we were missing Watkins and Luiz, I reckon we would have lost heavily.

But my main concern is that we rely solely on Watkins as a striker, due to having absolutely no quality back up.

Spurs are only 3 points behind us despite their ridiculous injury list and when they get the likes of Maddison back, they will push on.

They also have no Euro distraction.

I doubt Buendia coming back will have the same effect, and that's if he comes back this season at all.

I'd be delighted with 5th and it would show real progression. I cannot see us finishing any higher, but it's hard to see us finishing any lower either.

I understand what you mean by "Euro distraction" but I would be happy to have that distraction every year and I'm sure Spurs aren't happy about being free of that distraction. I also agree that our squad needs more depth and 5th would also do for me, but I don't think that Spurs are such a force as you describe, they could finish top 5, but could also drop back, as they did last season. 

[RichW]

36 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Newcastle? We would have to collapse completely.  Emery had a better ppg than Newcastle from the start of his tenure last season.  We are 10 points clear now and we don’t play in Europe again until March.  They aren’t in the equation.

I don’t understand the pessimism from some. We have one iffy result at home, not helped by poor officials but we are formidable at home.

We are second in the league having beat City, Arsenal, Spurs in the last two weeks plus two draws but a team with injuries and 10 points behind are going to catch us if things go well for them in four weeks time by the close of the window.

We’ve got a good gap between ourselves and Newcastle but I don’t get how you can completely rule them out at the moment. I’m not saying they will catch us, I’m just saying they will no doubt do business in January and will have players come back from injury and no Europe that will benefit them. Maybe when they rock up to Villa Park end of January and we beat them they will be even further out the picture. 
 

Anyway this isn’t an opinion just because we drew with Sheff Utd, we won’t win every week and there will be games other teams drop points unexpectedly (like Newcastle losing at Luton). I still think Villa are favourites for 4th, we have got 8 of the top 14 all coming to Villa Park. Spurs are the biggest threats but I’m not ruling out Newcastle just yet. 

[RichW]

44 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Could do with United losing a few more before all their injured defenders return. At some point they will go on a decent run. Newcastle I think will miss Pope too much so not as concerned about them anymore. Spurs definitely the biggest threat to us. 

Newcastle strong home form is probably why I still think they have a chance but even if Man Utd were to beat us Boxing Day I really don’t rate them at all. Can’t beat anybody decent away and they are not formidable at home like they were last season. Even if they sack ETH what manager goes in and turns it around mid season?

[Pinebro]

It's all about how you react after a set back.

You can't afford to go on a bad run in a top 4 race.

Reason why Newcastle did it last year is they always seemed to back it up the week after with a win

[andym]

19 hours ago, GlobalVillan said:

Yes I think our squad has shown itself to be significantly worse than Spurs squad several times this season. (By that I mean that we have struggled pretty much every time we have had to make a few changes ie Mostar, Everton,  Sheff Utd.....)

We won at their place when they had about 6 players out and whilst it was a good win, we barely got over the line. 

Had they had Maddison and Bentancur (they had many more out)! and we were missing Watkins and Luiz, I reckon we would have lost heavily.

But my main concern is that we rely solely on Watkins as a striker, due to having absolutely no quality back up.

Spurs are only 3 points behind us despite their ridiculous injury list and when they get the likes of Maddison back, they will push on.

They also have no Euro distraction.

I doubt Buendia coming back will have the same effect, and that's if he comes back this season at all.

I'd be delighted with 5th and it would show real progression. I cannot see us finishing any higher, but it's hard to see us finishing any lower either.

We've had Mings and Buendia out all season and only just got back Moreno, with Ramsey missing lots of games. All starters last season and would have been heavily involved this season.

Spurs big issue against us was having to play a full back at CB because Romero was out. Nothing unlucky about that, it was his own stupidity getting him banned.

As for us struggling at times and barely getting over the line on occasions, why are Spurs any different? 

Needed a 96th min OG to beat a 9 man Liverpool (as well as liverpool having a legit goal ruled out). 

Needed 98th and 100th min goals to get past Sheffield Utd.

They also imploded at home to a woeful Chelsea side, blew leads against us, Wolves and West Ham.

You can pick holes in both sides (and any side fighting at the top end this season tbf). Spurs may finish above us, but i dont think our squad is significantly worse, and we have just as much chance of finishing above them.

 

 

 

[Vive_La_Villa]

36 minutes ago, RichW said:

Newcastle strong home form is probably why I still think they have a chance but even if Man Utd were to beat us Boxing Day I really don’t rate them at all. Can’t beat anybody decent away and they are not formidable at home like they were last season. Even if they sack ETH what manager goes in and turns it around mid season?

True. They’re a shambles. 

[CVByrne]

I think our resilience and ability to score late goals is pretty key for us in this run. 

We've been behind 9 times this season. Lost 3 of those games, won 3 and drew 3. 

We have won every game this season we've been leading in. 

This is a pretty amazing record as we seem to always go behind away from home early and still find a way back into it. 

[DakotaVilla]

It’s not really about dealing with a setback, we know this team is resilient.

This is about developing a new ability to break down teams that will increasingly sit behind the ball in a low block and try to defend for their lives for a point.

Its a new challenge we’ve never ever really had to face before so might take a bit of time - and new players - to get used to. This is the hardest mile for all good teams. 

 

[VillaChris]

1 hour ago, Sulberto21 said:

Here’s a bold statement - I have a feeling that we’ll finish ahead of one of Arsenal or Liverpool. I don’t know why but I feel it in my waters.

I actually think Liverpool will drop off a bit now.

They've had a few chances this season to go top and drawn 1-1 every time so don't really have a killer mentality in the squad they had a few seasons ago to keep winning.

Beyond Salah (who remains world class) their forward options aren't actually that great, Bailey is in better form than Gakpo for instance and we have a better midfield structure than they do imo.

Drawn their last two at Anfield so I'd like to think a few more teams will go there in second half of the season, sit in and frustrate them. Their away form isn't much better than ours, needed a 96th minute goal to draw at Luton.

We won't finish above Arsenal as they're very strong all over the pitch and feels like falling short last season is really pushing them on but Liverpool are starting to look a bit vulnerable now and Salah will be missing for over a month pretty shortly.

[VillaChris]

1 hour ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Could do with United losing a few more before all their injured defenders return. At some point they will go on a decent run. Newcastle I think will miss Pope too much so not as concerned about them anymore. Spurs definitely the biggest threat to us. 

Man. United have 0% chance. Just to get up to 58 points they're going to have to win 10 of their last 20 games and so to get top 4 you need around 70 points so they need pretty much title winning form at this point.

They've scored 18 goals all season, incredibly Sheffield United are the only prem team to have scored fewer prem goals than Man. United, everyone else is at least equal with them.

The good news however is if they do pick up a bit in 2024 under a new manager that should mean they're taking points off some of our rivals as they still have to play all of Liverpool, Newcastle, Spurs and Arsenal at home. It's a bit like Chelsea being useful for us, they're both poor but neither will lose all those games.

[nick76]

1 hour ago, Sulberto21 said:

Here’s a bold statement - I have a feeling that we’ll finish ahead of one of Arsenal or Liverpool. I don’t know why but I feel it in my waters.

I’m with you.  

Arsenal are great in midfield and attack but dodgy keeper, poor left back, not great right back, Havertz who I still think was a bizarre buy and I love Jesus but he’s not the striker they need.  Saliba is world class, Rice is amazing, Odegaard is a genius but they do have holes and I’m still not convinced of Arteta when the difficult times come or his tactical acumen when things start to slip.  

I fancy Liverpool more just because of Klopp but they are missing something, not really clicking or just something but I fancy them over Arsenal just because of Klopp and having a brilliant keeper which I think you need to win the league.  

I still expect Man City to ramp up into 3rd then 4th gear when they return but I can see us nicking 3rd place than slipping to 5th.

January transfer business may change my thoughts or if we lose somebody like Martinez to injury but otherwise I’m hopeful

[Zatman]

26 minutes ago, VillaChris said:

I actually think Liverpool will drop off a bit now.

They've had a few chances this season to go top and drawn 1-1 every time so don't really have a killer mentality in the squad they had a few seasons ago to keep winning.

Beyond Salah (who remains world class) their forward options aren't actually that great, Bailey is in better form than Gakpo for instance and we have a better midfield structure than they do imo.

Drawn their last two at Anfield so I'd like to think a few more teams will go there in second half of the season, sit in and frustrate them. Their away form isn't much better than ours, needed a 96th minute goal to draw at Luton.

We won't finish above Arsenal as they're very strong all over the pitch and feels like falling short last season is really pushing them on but Liverpool are starting to look a bit vulnerable now and Salah will be missing for over a month pretty shortly.

They have got results but have not really been that good this season. They got 6 points from Sheffield United and Palace recently which really should have been just 2

[Mantis]

1 hour ago, Pinebro said:

It's all about how you react after a set back.

You can't afford to go on a bad run in a top 4 race.

Reason why Newcastle did it last year is they always seemed to back it up the week after with a win

Actually you can. Case in point: Newcastle last season. They went two whole months without winning and drew against Palace, Bournemouth and West Ham, followed by defeats to Liverpool and Man City.

Obviously I hope we don't have a bad run but it's simply not true that you can't have a bad run of form and finish top 4.

[CVByrne]

1 minute ago, Mantis said:

Actually you can. Case in point: Newcastle last season. They went two whole months without winning and drew against Palace, Bournemouth and West Ham, followed by defeats to Liverpool and Man City.

Obviously I hope we don't have a bad run but it's simply not true that you can't have a bad run of form and finish top 4.

Least season Liverpool had dropped off massively so there were two spots up for grabs in top 4. I feel there is one this time with Liverpool back. 

Hopefully 5th is a CL place and there are 2 up for grabs. 

[VillaChris]

9 minutes ago, Zatman said:

They have got results but have not really been that good this season. They got 6 points from Sheffield United and Palace recently which really should have been just 2

Early season I thought they were pretty good, demolished us, won against the odds at Newcastle (only team in prem to take points at SJP so far) and they battled very hard with 9 men at Spurs and only lost in 96th minute.

Last few weeks they've stagnated. As you say they would never have won at Palace without that ridiculous Ayew red.

Bournemouth away on 21st January without Salah, that will be interesting one as they lost there last season. Then they have Chelsea at home and Arsenal away and Salah might not be back for either of those so I can see them falling off the title pace.

[VillaChris]

6 minutes ago, Mantis said:

Actually you can. Case in point: Newcastle last season. They went two whole months without winning and drew against Palace, Bournemouth and West Ham, followed by defeats to Liverpool and Man City.

Obviously I hope we don't have a bad run but it's simply not true that you can't have a bad run of form and finish top 4.

We've mirrored Newcastle quite a bit over last 18 months. Appoint a good manager to replace a terrible one and then go on a ridiculous run from bottom 3 to european qualification pretty quickly.

Last season Newcastle had a slow start and then had an amazing run from late September right up to end of December (as we've done). Then they dropped a bit before winning five in a row between March-April which pretty much confirmed top 4.

[stewiek2]

3 hours ago, nick76 said:

Just want to quote this from the Title thread because this thread is a bit depressing today.  I don’t think we’ll win the title but I’m more confident that not we’ll get Top4.  

 

But we won't get top four. Gary Neville said so

[nick76]

7 minutes ago, stewiek2 said:

But we won't get top four. Gary Neville said so

I quite like Neville’s punditary generally but he’s known as really rubbish at predictions although he’s beating Keane on the weekly Super6 score predictions.  So when he predicts we won’t, that’s a good sign we will in the end.  It’s like Mark Goldbridge saying he thinks Man U can win the Champions League this season, he just has it in his gut….they end up out and bottom of their group.  The pundits don’t how to deal with us just like they didn’t last season with Newcastle.

[oishiiniku_uk]

7 hours ago, Brumstopdogs said:

Spurs look the bigger threat at present and wouldn't be surprised if they finished in the top 4. Obviously hope they don't.

Spurs results have improved but they weren't that impressive vs Forest or Everton. They will also be losing Bissouma, Sarr and Son for a number of games soon.