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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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39 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

We are tied in 2nd with Liverpool and Arsenal on 55 points in the 2023 Premier League points table

It’s a pretty incredible stat when you consider that’s pretty much the whole of Emerys reign bar 3 games which we won 2 of.

Edited by Vive_La_Villa
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We've played 4 away and 2 homes games including away to Newcastle Chelsea and Liverpool. Yet we've won 4 of 6 games. We've quite a new system and have had injury to key players adapt to. We should improve quite a bit as the team gets better and used to eachother more.

The way we've added a potent attack this season is very impressive 

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Really happy with the start to this season. 2 points per game is a really good average for where we are right now, especially with the injuries we've sustained.

Attack and Midfield I have no doubts that we'll be a force for pretty much everyone except maybe City, Arsenal and Liverpool this season. I do have concerns about us defensively and especially the number of chances per game we seem to concede which is partly down to this aggressive high line we play. I think CL might be beyond us this season but we should certainly be in the mix for 5-7. Whatever happens this year the way we play is really entertaining and unpredictable.

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11 minutes ago, Mantis said:

Oh yeah that's another thing we're a lot better at under Emery. When we take the lead, we're very good at seeing it out, in contrast to Villa teams of old.

We are so much more resilient now. I remember some terrible years when we were almost guaranteed to concede after going in front. Also the early championship days under RDM, we conceded so many late goals. Let us get the first goal and you’ll struggle to beat us now, top man Unai. 

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It helps when we can get the first goal too. We did brilliantly at the end of last year, but we also had (a little bit of luck and a little bit of application) the fortune of scoring first and very early a lot of those matches. It plays right into our hands at that point.

On the reverse, Newcastle and Liverpool scored very early and, both, already good teams, put us to the sword after though we had a lot of misfortunes against Newcastle. Same thing happened with Legia.

I'm sure it frustrates Unai to no end because no matter the gameplan, the opponent scoring in the first ten minutes is certainly going to ruin the planned game state for the rest of the match.

Until the next international break, we have Brighton, Wolves, West Ham, Luton, Forest, Fulham.

Would probably expect 12 points out of that to continue the 2 PPG average.

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1 hour ago, DJBOB said:

Until the next international break, we have Brighton, Wolves, West Ham, Luton, Forest, Fulham.

Would probably expect 12 points out of that to continue the 2 PPG average.

There is an international break after the Wolves game. This is an “easier” part of our fixture, so I hope for more than 12, to have spare points for tougher part of the fixture list.

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Want to start this by saying I am behind Emery fully and would never entertain any idea of dissent on him, even if our record starts to tail off. However...

Something is not quite right this season and has just not clicked. I've been trying to work it out and at the moment I think it is simply that Emery doesn't know who his starting XI is. It hit me when the teams were announced last night that I looked at Everton's side and thought they really want this, they're taking it seriously. I look at our team and I have no idea which players are reserves and which are starters for certain. 

I know this seems to be the idea. I know there was talk about us needing strength in depth, strong bench, long season, rotation etc. etc. etc. 

However, you do regularly get comments like Ten Hag recently where managers come out and say things like "I can't start our strongest XI" whether that's issues or injuries or whatever. I reckon Pep is the only successful manager currently in the league who doesn't have a definitely XI in his head for his side. 

I think we really need to work out who our best team is and get minutes in with them to get them to gel. If one of our best XI players is injured, fine, stick someone else in. 

The fact is that currently, we've lost to Everton, Liverpool and Newcastle and I didn't feel like we'd win those games from the first 10 minutes onwards. I thought the game was over at Palace and I don't think we won due to tactics or formation or a good plan, even Emery admitted that. Got lucky that they took a player out in the box for a soft pen and a moment of magic from Duran to start it off. Chelsea probably one of the best performances in recent weeks but I dunno if we'd have beaten a poor Chelsea with 10 men if the ball doesn't deflect back to Watkins so that he has no time to overthink the shot, and even then Sanchez could do much better and Martinez was on a different level all game. 

It's frustrating a team we absolutely decimated a few weeks ago is the same team we just can't muster the energy to try and beat a few weeks later. 

Maybe the best XI thing is a red herring I'm completely overthinking but I don't know what it is at all currently. I feel like we're either guaranteed to win as we're gonna blow the other team away, or look like we have no fight within 10 minutes of a game, every match this month. Just something that's a recent trend that I hope won't set in. 

For me, I'd be happy with Duran, Watkins, Zaniolo, Bailey, Diaby, McGinn and Ramsey starting in more advanced positions but max 4 will start and I don't know who the best 4 are or what combo works best. If we had a big cup game tomorrow I wouldn't know who I'd want on the pitch for the game, maybe Watkins with Diaby and then Ramsey and Zaniolo the 10s but can't really take McGinn out the side and Bailey adds extra pace that can hurt teams. 

 

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We've become a win one loose one team this season. This inability to string a few results together He needs to deal with. Ok there's a bit of squad rotation but if the players coming in aren't doing it why did we sign them or not get rid of them. I think Dendoncker was a ridiculous signing from Wolves reserves. On high wages too. 

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We've lost Emi, Mings, moreno, Ramsey and Carlos, I'm not surprised our performances have been like this - lack real quality in the backup positions, he's trying to integrate them and get them up to speed but you can't polish a turd 

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1 hour ago, Stevo985 said:

However, let's be honest, we were shit against palace until the last 10 minutes, and we should probably have lost to Chelsea if they didn't have a man sent off. The Warsaw and Everton performances have been terrible.

My worry is despite our very good start in the league, I don't think we're a million miles away from a downturn in form. I think we've ridden our luck slightly over the past few weeks.
Now that's fine, and totally normal, especially with our injuries and Europe in the mix.

My fear is that the downturn in form will stop "propping up" the fanbase and things could turn nasty quite quickly.

Maybe I'm just being dramatic... but I'm worried

That's a mental review of the Palace game - the first half was one of the most comfortable halves of football I've ever witnessed.  I guess we were "shit" because we weren't 3 or 4 up?  We looked really good.  They scored a breakaway goal as a result of... yes, you guessed it, a collective comedy of defensive errors - Pau loses the ball, Konsa isn't tracking and Martinez slips.  Palace were then fairly comfortable for maybe 20 minutes.  I think we got lucky in the end purely due to the timings, but we were miles the better side.  It was a complete reversal of the performances in the cup games.

The overall shining light is that we've been good in the league.  The Brighton game will be interesting; we're good at home and we've both come off unexpected European defeats and more expected (in Brighton's case) cup defeats.  Brighton are a really good side.  If we manage to win, we'll have 5 wins from 7 including trips to Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea and a home game against Brighton.  I would've bitten your hand off for that kind of start to the season.

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3 minutes ago, bobzy said:

That's a mental review of the Palace game - the first half was one of the most comfortable halves of football I've ever witnessed.  I guess we were "shit" because we weren't 3 or 4 up?  We looked really good.  They scored a breakaway goal as a result of... yes, you guessed it, a collective comedy of defensive errors - Pau loses the ball, Konsa isn't tracking and Martinez slips.  Palace were then fairly comfortable for maybe 20 minutes.  I think we got lucky in the end purely due to the timings, but we were miles the better side.  It was a complete reversal of the performances in the cup games.

The overall shining light is that we've been good in the league.  The Brighton game will be interesting; we're good at home and we've both come off unexpected European defeats and more expected (in Brighton's case) cup defeats.  Brighton are a really good side.  If we manage to win, we'll have 5 wins from 7 including trips to Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea and a home game against Brighton.  I would've bitten your hand off for that kind of start to the season.

Yeah I think when we start our first XI, we have pretty much gotten the results we wanted (though the effort at Liverpool was unquestionably bad).

But I'm going to be gritting my teeth during these midweek games every time I see the lineup and it doesn't look like it makes sense.

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10 minutes ago, bobzy said:

That's a mental review of the Palace game - the first half was one of the most comfortable halves of football I've ever witnessed.  I guess we were "shit" because we weren't 3 or 4 up?  We looked really good.  They scored a breakaway goal as a result of... yes, you guessed it, a collective comedy of defensive errors - Pau loses the ball, Konsa isn't tracking and Martinez slips.  Palace were then fairly comfortable for maybe 20 minutes.  I think we got lucky in the end purely due to the timings, but we were miles the better side.  It was a complete reversal of the performances in the cup games.

The overall shining light is that we've been good in the league.  The Brighton game will be interesting; we're good at home and we've both come off unexpected European defeats and more expected (in Brighton's case) cup defeats.  Brighton are a really good side.  If we manage to win, we'll have 5 wins from 7 including trips to Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea and a home game against Brighton.  I would've bitten your hand off for that kind of start to the season.

Palace was 'comfortable' because they allowed it to be, we didn't create many chances IIRC (Ollie's aside), and they nearly executed their gameplan. We've been ok in the league, losing against Newcastle and Liverpool away is fine, but the manner of those defeats was a concern. Chelsea could have gone either way.

Emery is still the best man for the job without any doubt though. We've had loads to contend with this season - we'll be fine.

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5 minutes ago, bobzy said:

That's a mental review of the Palace game - the first half was one of the most comfortable halves of football I've ever witnessed.  I guess we were "shit" because we weren't 3 or 4 up?  We looked really good.  They scored a breakaway goal as a result of... yes, you guessed it, a collective comedy of defensive errors - Pau loses the ball, Konsa isn't tracking and Martinez slips.  Palace were then fairly comfortable for maybe 20 minutes.  I think we got lucky in the end purely due to the timings, but we were miles the better side.  It was a complete reversal of the performances in the cup games.

The overall shining light is that we've been good in the league.  The Brighton game will be interesting; we're good at home and we've both come off unexpected European defeats and more expected (in Brighton's case) cup defeats.  Brighton are a really good side.  If we manage to win, we'll have 5 wins from 7 including trips to Newcastle, Liverpool, Chelsea and a home game against Brighton.  I would've bitten your hand off for that kind of start to the season.

I think whenever there is a bad result, it definitely leads to looking back and having a more negative view of previous results and seeing the worst in those games.

E.g. for Chelsea, yes they missed some good chances, and it could have gone either way, but their keeper made some great saves as well.

Palace looks worse because we left it late, but as you note we dominated most of that game. First half Ollie missed a 1 on 1, but the better chances were probably Cash miskicking when 6 yards out, then missing basically a free header from the same spot, and Ollie inexplicably watching a ball fizz across the 6 yard box and not sticking out a toe to put it in.

It's pretty rare (unless you are Man City) to have lots of games where you completely dominate creating loads and giving up nothing, and often you do need that bit of luck. 

Liverpool beat West Ham 3-1 at the weekend, but watch the highlights and aside from the goal they did score, West Ham had 3 free headers about 8 yards out that they miss, and i think two of them were before Liverpool scored their first.   

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54 minutes ago, bobzy said:

That's a mental review of the Palace game - the first half was one of the most comfortable halves of football I've ever witnessed.  I guess we were "shit" because we weren't 3 or 4 up?  We looked really good.  They scored a breakaway goal as a result of... yes, you guessed it, a collective comedy of defensive errors - Pau loses the ball, Konsa isn't tracking and Martinez slips.  Palace were then fairly comfortable for maybe 20 minutes.  I think we got lucky in the end purely due to the timings, but we were miles the better side.  It was a complete reversal of the performances in the cup games.

Appreciate the patronising tone, but no. I just thought we didn't play very well and never looked like creating very much. Once Palace went ahead we didn't seem to have a way back into the game.

Fair enough we turned it around and finished very strongly, which is fantastic, but I think overall it wasn't a very good performance.

But each to their own

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I think keeping around Europa/Conference league qualification should be the minimum.

Maybe if Mings/Buendia didn't get injured, we would have enough to compete in both the league for UCL and in Conference - but given the horror shows from our depth players, Unai is going to have to pick which of the remaining competitions are a priority (league, conference, FA Cup)

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