Zhan_Zhuang Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Just now, VillaChris said: Surprised Fulham have only taken 17 points in same period, they weren't that far ahead of us when UE came in so not sure how we're not above them. Brentford also going on a very good run from early November is annoying but I don't see them winning that many games with the fixtures they have left. We shouldn't be finishing lower than 9th now and very possible we could get 8th as I can't see Chelsea getting above 55 points with the away games they have left. However, if we were to stay third in the form table top seven would be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Just now, Zhan_Zhuang said: However, if we were to stay third in the form table top seven would be possible. Winning any of Chelsea, Liverpool and Man. United away is going to be very tough. Would be happy with two draws from that although the template for some of those is Spurs away which we won comfortably in the end. 5 wins from final 11 would be a realistic and good return. Certainly should be beating Forest and I think Fulham are dipping so that's another very winnable home game. Who knows what state Spurs will be in when they turn up at VP, I don't think Conte will be in the dugout for that. Then away hopefully we can continue the good form. Leicester is hard to call but if we defend well we can win that as we'll create chances v them. Probably draws at Brentford and Wolves as won't be much space with way those two set up. If we win five more games we're on 53 points so with a few draws we could beat 20/21 points and that surely will be good enough for top 10. And the advantage this time is we have a top class manager in place and won't be selling the fulcrum of our team for 100m which set us back 12 months while others around us strengthened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GingerCollins29 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 So many big games coming up. Chelsea, brentford and newcastle 3 that stick out against teams around us. Win those and who knows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Don't get me wrong considering where we were Top Ten would be good yet with those fixtures coming up we have a say potentially. And whilst we remain top six or so in the form table it is mathematically possible to reach seventh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 24 minutes ago, VillaChris said: Surprised Fulham have only taken 17 points in same period, they weren't that far ahead of us when UE came in so not sure how we're not above them. Brentford also going on a very good run from early November is annoying but I don't see them winning that many games with the fixtures they have left. We shouldn't be finishing lower than 9th now and very possible we could get 8th as I can't see Chelsea getting above 55 points with the away games they have left. As explained previous page this table is inaccurate as leaves out postponed matches that have been played. Fulham 20pts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinebro Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 You wanna bet against us? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheltenham_villa Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Only forest and Newcastle have a harder run in than us based on the average points per game of the teams left to play. My expectations are managed but I'm enjoying watching Unai transform the team. Us Vs Chelsea is 2 of the most inform teams, wouldn't have said that a couple of months ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 (edited) 11 minutes ago, cheltenham_villa said: Only forest and Newcastle have a harder run in than us based on the average points per game of the teams left to play. My expectations are managed but I'm enjoying watching Unai transform the team. Us Vs Chelsea is 2 of the most inform teams, wouldn't have said that a couple of months ago. Are you sure? I've just done this quickly, but unless I've messed it up, looks like Newcastle's run in is the 2nd best just of the teams placed 4th to 11th. Chelsea, Brentford and Brighton have worse than us. Edited March 19, 2023 by tomsky_11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ferguson1 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 To be only four points off sixth place right now is an incredible turnaround. 50-55 points is surely a realistic finish now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JAMAICAN-VILLAN Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 I think the UE ppg might be the best data to assimilate with. 9th will be good, 8th will be outstanding considering where we are coming from. I legit think we'd be better off getting as close to European places as possible this season and then building squad and platform from there. Then the following year we will have a squad capable of competing on multiple fronts better. Build again and the season after we are more prepared for the addition of Europe. Obviously I wouldn't say know to us getting there now but i'm considering bigger picture. I think finishing 8th or 9th will still allow us to attract a good calibre of player, with the combination of UE and them seeing that this is a team going places with a good feel to it. Afterall, some " lesser " teams than us have seemed to " punch " when it comes to attracting players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Not sure if I've got the maths or logic right, but I think this maybe gives some indication of fixture difficulty also taking into account the number of remaining games and the difference between home and away. I think this shows the remaining expected points for the season, based on the avg ppg to date of the opponent. Method if anyone interested/wants to pick it apart: 1. Take the average ppg of the remaining opponents split home and away as per previous post. 2. Flex this down for home games and up for away games, based on a ratio of 1.5:1 (ie. 50% more points are earned at home compared to away, on average) 3. Deduct these values from the average total points earned per game by both teams (about 2.76 based on last 10 PL seasons) to give an estimated average points earned per game by the team in question, split home and away. 4. Multiply these home and away values by the number of remaining home and away fixtures to give expected total future points earned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheltenham_villa Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 1 hour ago, tomsky_11 said: Are you sure? I've just done this quickly, but unless I've messed it up, looks like Newcastle's run in is the 2nd best just of the teams placed 4th to 11th. Chelsea, Brentford and Brighton have worse than us. I'll be honest I read it yesterday but hadn't checked myself. Will try and dig out where I found it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheltenham_villa Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 23 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said: Not sure if I've got the maths or logic right, but I think this maybe gives some indication of fixture difficulty also taking into account the number of remaining games and the difference between home and away. I think this shows the remaining expected points for the season, based on the avg ppg to date of the opponent. Method if anyone interested/wants to pick it apart: 1. Take the average ppg of the remaining opponents split home and away as per previous post. 2. Flex this down for home games and up for away games, based on a ratio of 1.5:1 (ie. 50% more points are earned at home compared to away, on average) 3. Deduct these values from the average total points earned per game by both teams (about 2.76 based on last 10 PL seasons) to give an estimated average points earned per game by the team in question, split home and away. 4. Multiply these home and away values by the number of remaining home and away fixtures to give expected total future points earned. Why split Vs home and away though? Were enough of the way through the season to just use average PPG and accept that it includes a range. Under Emery I think we've been stronger away. Not all clubs perform equally better at home rather than away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Computer projected points are rubbish as basing us off whole season not Emery Villa that's only lost to Leicester Liverpool Arsenal and City and not factoring in some factors like rubbish no offside vs Arsenal and shirt pull on Bailey then dive for West Ham penalty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 8 minutes ago, cheltenham_villa said: Why split Vs home and away though? Were enough of the way through the season to just use average PPG and accept that it includes a range. Because a 50% difference (this is a rough estimate but as I understand it a reasonable one based on a pretty longstanding trend) in points return on average isn't insignificant and seems reasonable to take this into account. Obviously for specific teams they might have significantly better or worse home/away records and could use these team specific splits if I could be bothered this morning (I can't). He's the impact of taking out the home/away flex: Minor differences to every but Brighton and Liverpool, enough to swap them between 1st and 3rd rank. 24 minutes ago, cheltenham_villa said: Under Emery I think we've been stronger away. Not all clubs perform equally better at home rather than away. Note, this is just an analysis of the strength of the opponents, so our performance to date and those of the other teams in question is irrelevant, only the opponents' performance matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delphinho123 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 One game at a time. If we beat Chelsea, I’ll start to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomsky_11 Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 2 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said: Computer projected points are rubbish as basing us off whole season not Emery Villa that's only lost to Leicester Liverpool Arsenal and City and not factoring in some factors like rubbish no offside vs Arsenal and shirt pull on Bailey then dive for West Ham penalty If referencing what I've just posted, as I've said above these are remaining opponent strength, so our own record is irrelevant. It technically impacts the other teams where they need to play us still, but then this gets complicated because what about all the other teams who've changed managers and may have seen drastic changes in form. All these things are using a lot of averages and assumptions anyway, they are obviously not perfect, they aren't going to definitively say "the league table will finish like this". I think what they do give a reasonable assessment of, for example, is the task at hand for us to make top 7 this season. Eg. take the home and away flexed remaining fixture analysis above, adjust the remaining expected points by the % each team is above average ppg under their current manager so far this season to give some idea of potential over/underperformance in these remaining games, add that each team's current points total and you get a final table that looks like this: So we either need to surpass our form to date under Emery or hope that at least two teams drop off and we maintain ours to make top 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 Back up where we belong, now let's... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted March 19, 2023 Share Posted March 19, 2023 We are 11 points ahead of the team below us, I cant remember us ever having such a cushion before Its going to be like that lockdown season when we get a huge points tally and stay 11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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