Subs

[nick76]

Subs is something that dominates the Dean Smith thread.  

Obviously an important part of Deans job in influencing a game from timing, balance and the right player to bring on or take off.  

It seems though to be taking a complete dominance of the Dean Smith thread in a negative fashion when we are having one of our best times in recent decades and I think the vast majority of fans are delighted with Smith.

So creating this thread to bring that discussion here and the Dean Smith thread can focus more on other parts of Dean Smith discussion.

Edited February 7, 2021 by nick76

[JAMAICAN-VILLAN]

I get that some people go overboard with criticism, and I get that some are down right ridiculous.

However, I don't think it's right for people to be slammed and berated for having opinions and/or commentary with regards to subs ( And other things for that matter ).

After all, we are having Football conversations, people see the game differently.

It's the equivalent of being out in a bar, watching the game with mates and saying " Deano needs to make a sub we are under the cosh, they are knackered, could cost us the game here " Then have 20 people shouting in your face and pointing at you in disgust.

99.99 percent of us are happy with Deano, but you can't stop people from having running commentary of games, or voicing their opinion on how they think we could improve.

Every manager has their own style, strengths, and what would/could be perceived by some as " faults ".

Sometimes even Dean himself admits when he thinks he might have gotten something wrong.

None of us are Premier League football managers or claim to have more expertise than them, but i'm pretty sure most of us have been watching football keenly and for long enough to sometimes see patterns in games.

Alot of us also comment frantically/dramatically, especially during matches as emotions are running high, and we are passionate about our club.

Most aren't saying things just to be dicks.

[nick76]

Also I think it’s the constant talking about it despite his results still being extremely good.  I understand the need to constantly improve but he doesn’t have much options at the moment.

We aren’t going to change the back five or Jack or Ollie so that’s 7 positions locked in.

Barkley, Trez, El Ghazi and Traore have all had good time this season in a couple of slots.

So then just deeper midfield of two slots which has basically been Luiz and McGinn, which is maybe an area but Nakamba is starting to get more game time and obviously Dean has brought in Sanson.

So is there anything else Dean could do more? It just seems then whether we substitute on the 60th minute or the 70th minute that people are getting riled up about.

Edited February 7, 2021 by nick76

[Phil Silvers]

The only criticism I have is the few occasions where we are past say 80+ mins with a 1 goal lead or are level and are being completely overrun, totally dominated, hanging by the skin of our teeth, I think we should be (against all my natural instincts) trying to kill the game and slow it by making subs if we have any left, in MF, and just try keep the ball in an ugly way at the end.

Last year against Everton at the end Deano looked like he showed a bit inexperience and let it just play out and it cost us.

Doesn't happen often and in the most part it's just a coin toss on what to do.

[nick76]

7 minutes ago, Phil Silvers said:

The only criticism I have is the few occasions where we are past say 80+ mins with a 1 goal lead or are level and are being completely overrun, totally dominated, hanging by the skin of our teeth, I think we should be (against all my natural instincts) trying to kill the game and slow it by making subs if we have any left, in MF, and just try keep the ball in an ugly way at the end.

Last year against Everton at the end Deano looked like he showed a bit inexperience and let it just play out and it cost us.

Doesn't happen often and in the most part it's just a coin toss on what to do.

I don’t disagree, it worries me though we don’t have the players to kill the game off the bench like a Milner.  

Fresh legs is a good call to do it and to waste time.

I also worry about unbalancing the side or a fresh player not being up to speed with the game like Tuanzebe last night although this is rare outcome of that.

Smith also has the fitness stats from those body tops they wear so know how the players are doing.

I just look at the bench towards the end of the game and think who can we change and don’t see that choice who can help kill the game.  I think we lack that.

[Phil Silvers]

3 minutes ago, nick76 said:

I don’t disagree, it worries me though we don’t have the players to kill the game off the bench like a Milner.  

Fresh legs is a good call to do it and to waste time.

I also worry about unbalancing the side or a fresh player not being up to speed with the game like Tuanzebe last night although this is rare outcome of that.

Smith also has the fitness stats from those body tops they wear so know how the players are doing.

I just look at the bench towards the end of the game and think who can we change and don’t see that choice who can help kill the game.  I think we lack that.

We are still building the depth of the squad so that will come.

I don't like changing the back at the above mentioned stage, they are doing well to deal with it this deep in the game so leave them be. 

I want to see Marvellous for Ross or Elmo for Bertie, fresh legs trying to block in front of the heroes, or even waste time further up the pitch etc.

Back to being able to change things tactically earlier in the game, if we have lost the first half we need like for like options ability wise and as said the squad will develop, we have the money and a good finishing position will make us an attractive proposition for a lot of players that were well out of our reach not so long ago.

[villa4europe]

Said in the Smith thread, we as a fan base don't have that much confidence thanks to years of throwing games away, 1 - 0 up with 10 mins left and 40% odd of our fan base are convinced we won't win, maybe more, that then becomes "they're on top of us" which becomes "we need to make subs" 

I think there are then a few things from that, the first is Smith does have confidence in his 11 on the pitch (seemingly paired with not having confidence in the bench) and their ability to see a game out, I'm not sure what the stats say but I don't think we have lost that many games in the last 10 mins under smith

Secondly it would be interesting to know the opinion of a professional manager or those with coaching badges as to what making a sub actually does during a game - fans seem to think that the additional energy will see us through, managers often seem to think that it disrupts the team

Its not as common to see a team making unforced subs at 1-0 up as people think, see it banded about in the match threads that "top managers like klopp and pep do it" no they dont...

Edited February 7, 2021 by villa4europe

[villa4europe]

And seriously, has anyone got a stat as to how many games / points smiths villa have lost in the last 10 minutes? 

Which would then need to be analysed as to what subs we made in those games... 

[Phil Silvers]

1 minute ago, villa4europe said:

And seriously, has anyone got a stat as to how many games / points smiths villa have lost in the last 10 minutes? 

Which would then need to be analysed as to what subs we made in those games... 

Thats the thing, a feeling a fan has is based on instincts, inexperienced instincts, stats would probably show that it isn't even an issue worthy of discussion. 

[sne]

1 minute ago, villa4europe said:

And seriously, has anyone got a stat as to how many games / points smiths villa have lost in the last 10 minutes? 

Which would then need to be analysed as to what subs we made in those games... 

No idea what the stats are and tbh I'm really only interested in the stats from this season because last season we had absolutely nothing on the bench and even now our squad is weak.

Considering we've been mostly great this season I suspect it looks good but as mentioned in the Smith thread I'm mostly concerned about fatigue and injuries over the course of the whole season due to the schedule and so far it has worked really well.

[KenjiOgiwara]

Pastrami

[sparrow1988]

3 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

Pastrami

Italian BMT footlong - every time

[villa4europe]

I had a real quick look based on wiki to see and by my reckoning in the PL so from the start of last season we've dropped 12 points due to goals in the last 10 minutes of games and we've picked up 11 points so there's nothing in the surface 

As @sne said if you went deeper than stats and started to look at grealishs performance in march and April as playing 90 mins 30 times starts to take its toll then that's something different, it's also something we haven't seen yet cos of the break last season

Smith hasn't completed a "full" season with us yet

[Mic09]

It's one of those things where you can't win a discussion. 

If we say "he should have put Trezeguet on for Traore at 60mins" when we are 0-0 with the opposition attacking, we just don't know if that's the right call.

Maybe we lose the game. Maybe we win it. Maybe we concede 7 goals after Smith makes a sub we want him to make. Maybe Grealish makes a run he wouldn't have done with Traore on the pitch and pulls a muscle and is out for a month.

Smith sees the players on the training ground and has several tactics ready at any time.

So yes, we can have a discussion and have opinions, but they are happening in a parallel hypothesis universe so are mainly pointless.

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Mic09

[Phil Silvers]

Good to hear reasoned chat rather then the ridiculous tripe in the match and Smith threads. 

[Laughable Chimp]

There was a guy on reddit who analysed on average when each Premier League team brings on their first second half sub. We were last place, waiting until the 74th minute on average to use our first second half sub.

There also didn't seem to be any kind of correlation between this and the league position of teams in the table.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Laughable Chimp

[MrBlack]

4 minutes ago, Laughable Chimp said:

There was a guy on reddit who analysed on average when each Premier League team brings on their first second half sub. We were last place, waiting until the 74th minute on average to use our first second half sub.

There also didn't seem to be any kind of correlation between this and the league position of teams in the table.

By that stat you have to conclude that we make subs too late. Whatever the correlation between sub timing and league positions, being last of that particular metric is a recipe for a first team that will be more tired than the rest of the league at any given point in the season. In an ideal world, Its a stat you'd like to be in the middle of, unless every other club in the league has it wrong. Or (big caveat) your subs bench is massively below the quality if your first 11.

For now, it doesnt seem to be costing us. There's no guarantee it ever will.

Laat season it was understandable, where our first 11 was barely good enough to compete, before we even looked at the subs bench.

But the performances our subs have put in of late suggests they're capable of coming on to change or stabilise a game.

Phil Silvers summed up my view. A few times, we've hit 60/70 minutes and a sub has looked like an obvious choice as we're getting overrun or losing with no sign of creating anything, and nothing has happened. It's not every game, but it was a bit of a trend. 

I will say, I think he's been using subs more the last couple of games. And changing the first 11 up,  so maybe Dean is seeing a bit more from outside the starting 11 to suggest he will continue to do so.  Not a huge concern, but one of very few things I think we could easily improve on. 

[hong0311]

It felt so nerve-wracking watching the last 15 min last season having the fear that eventually the opponent will score and turn the game around.

I for one have just realized that this feeling is long gone, so I checked the goals conceded in the last 15 min for this season and last season to reassure my observations: We were 9-18 last season compared to 8-5 this season in the 76-90th min in terms of goals scored vs goals conceded. On top of that, we were 9-15 during the 61-75th min last season, and we turned it into 8-3 this season.

Maybe Smith has got a point not using subs.

 

[DCJonah]

1 hour ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

I get that some people go overboard with criticism, and I get that some are down right ridiculous.

However, I don't think it's right for people to be slammed and berated for having opinions and/or commentary with regards to subs ( And other things for that matter ).

After all, we are having Football conversations, people see the game differently.

It's the equivalent of being out in a bar, watching the game with mates and saying " Deano needs to make a sub we are under the cosh, they are knackered, could cost us the game here " Then have 20 people shouting in your face and pointing at you in disgust.

99.99 percent of us are happy with Deano, but you can't stop people from having running commentary of games, or voicing their opinion on how they think we could improve.

Every manager has their own style, strengths, and what would/could be perceived by some as " faults ".

Sometimes even Dean himself admits when he thinks he might have gotten something wrong.

None of us are Premier League football managers or claim to have more expertise than them, but i'm pretty sure most of us have been watching football keenly and for long enough to sometimes see patterns in games.

Alot of us also comment frantically/dramatically, especially during matches as emotions are running high, and we are passionate about our club.

Most aren't saying things just to be dicks.

I like this post but strongly disagree with the bit in bold. 

That is football, everyone has opinions and that's the fun of it. 

What you've said doesn't happen. The people that get jumped on are the people who claim we'd have won the game if Smith had done what they wanted. Or claim that we'd be higher in the league if he made more changes or that he needs to learn. Claims that he's never proactive and he's clueless. These are the sort of posts that get jumped on. Inventing these hypothetical situations in order to criticise. And what doesn't help is that those who seem to do this are also ones that demanded he should have lost his job last season. 

Saying, I think we need to make a change during a game is not an issue. 

[DCJonah]

11 minutes ago, MrBlack said:

By that stat you have to conclude that we make subs too late. Whatever the correlation between sub timing and league positions, being last of that particular metric is a recipe for a first team that will be more tired than the rest of the league at any given point in the season. In an ideal world, Its a stat you'd like to be in the middle of, unless every other club in the league has it wrong. Or (big caveat) your subs bench is massively below the quality if your first 11.

For now, it doesnt seem to be costing us. There's no guarantee it ever will.

Laat season it was understandable, where our first 11 was barely good enough to compete, before we even looked at the subs bench.

But the performances our subs have put in of late suggests they're capable of coming on to change or stabilise a game.

Phil Silvers summed up my view. A few times, we've hit 60/70 minutes and a sub has looked like an obvious choice as we're getting overrun or losing with no sign of creating anything, and nothing has happened. It's not every game, but it was a bit of a trend. 

I will say, I think he's been using subs more the last couple of games. And changing the first 11 up,  so maybe Dean is seeing a bit more from outside the starting 11 to suggest he will continue to do so.  Not a huge concern, but one of very few things I think we could easily improve on. 

Compared to when? He uses subs almost every game.