The economic impact of Covid-19

[Robtaylor200]

Not just economic. It had really got me down. I have been Furloughed since last week in March. I work as a shift / team leader in automotive supply. Furloughed on 80% of basic wages, I am a shift worker, No shift allowance included (although they could have included this in the claim)  So actually getting 65% of normal pay. Mrs T is a part time nursery teacher. I am £600 worse off in my pocket per month and nothing from Mrs T. We have managed so far as we had savings and have cut our cloth to to suit. But I have sat here wondering if I will ever go back. My teams are now back but run by the managers (managing without team leaders) Empty days without purpose. I got myself a job, 3-4 hours a night sorting parcels, Min wage and have to pay 40% tax lol. So pick up £5.20 per hour.

But its so good to talk bollox to other blokes and have the feeling that I am needed again. I had to buy some safety shoes £18 I had to laugh as it was over 3 hours wages. 

So many people will never go back, If TV can manage with one camera and no make up artists etc are they ever going to go back again I am luckier I will collect 19 years redundancy 

[brommy]

@Robtaylor200 I hope your circumstances improve. Good luck mate.

[Xela]

8 hours ago, Genie said:

I can get a 5 year fixed rate deal at 1.34-1.39%

Best 5 year variable rate is 1.59%, second best is 2.19%, best 3 year variable are 1.54% to 1.65%
 

Why would I go for the variable? They may come down a little bit, but doesn’t seem worth it for the (small) risk they might go up a lot.

I went variable for 2 reasons

- Looking to move in the next 12 months 

- May pay a huge chunk (perhaps 50%) off the mortgage if I don't 

Going variable means I won''t be penalised

[Xela]

6 hours ago, Lichfield Dean said:

John Lewis in Grand Central closing down.

Complete disaster. To be honest, the store should never have been built there anyway. I always thought it smacked of dodgy bungs somewhere because I'm sure it was just randomly dumped on top of the station after the original designs had been done.

Anyway, the current economic crisis has now left a huge gaping void in the glitzy showcase transport hub of Birmingham.

 

6 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

Debenhams has gone in the Bullring too hasn't it.

Holes appearing.

 

Most people I know just don't want to go into Brum. I work there and shop elsewhere. Its great for pubs/bars and restaurants but i'd rather go to an out of town retail park to shop. Its easier. Free parking and more relaxed vibe. Brum city centre just feels way too moody for me nowadays. Shame, as I used to love going up there 15-20 years ago to shop. 

[blandy]

On 08/07/2020 at 21:59, LondonLax said:

all this government stimulus is causing the stock market to ramp up to levels way out of kilter with the underpinning economic reality.

Pedantry alert. That's not true. The Stock Market plummeted and has since risen slightly as businesses re-open etc. It may or may not be higher than warranted, but it really isn't "ramping up" in ways that are out of kilter with reality.

 

[LondonLax]

56 minutes ago, blandy said:

Pedantry alert. That's not true. The Stock Market plummeted and has since risen slightly as businesses re-open etc. It may or may not be higher than warranted, but it really isn't "ramping up" in ways that are out of kilter with reality.

 

It was rising before businesses opened and even bankrupt businesses like Hertz had rising stock prices just on the back of all the money being pumped in. Hertz even issued a billion dollars in new stock (while bankrupt!) because people were buying it anyway. The stock issue even came with a warning that the stocks may be worthless! 

A crazy amount of money being pumped into the economy by central governments around the world and a lot of it is being funnelled into stocks.  

 

[Follyfoot]

On 23/06/2020 at 18:29, tom_avfc said:

This isn’t actually true is it? I mean other than the part about Tim Martin being an arsehole which is true.

I think they furloughed staff and told people that if they wanted to work in a supermarket etc. then they’d be able to go back to their Wetherspoons job once pubs reopen.

As I say I’ve got no time for the bloke but the spreading of lies as facts in a big red box is one of the more annoying aspects of social media.

Same as the disgusting stance taken by Starbucks regarding the war on terror

[KenjiOgiwara]

2 hours ago, blandy said:

Pedantry alert. That's not true. The Stock Market plummeted and has since risen slightly as businesses re-open etc. It may or may not be higher than warranted, but it really isn't "ramping up" in ways that are out of kilter with reality.

 

It's difficult for me to assess the ftse as I mostly look towards what's going on in NY as that determines the world outlook. But FTSE is a blue chip index isn't it? It will be lagging a bit cause it's tech that's driving the market. 

I'd say the markets however definitely are ramping up beyond what's anchored in reality. PE ratio on companies like Shopify, Flix and Tesla is pretty absurd. And do anyone really believe in the growth they project? 

What scares me more than anything is the amount of dumb money in the market.

I also see more and more confusing financial reports from companies I normally didn't struggle too much reading into. There's definitely something very ichy about the markets now. But that's just my opinion. 

 

 

[blandy]

Just now, KenjiOgiwara said:

There's definitely something very ichy about the markets now. But that's just my opinion. 

Definitely. The situation is worse than before the 2008 crash.

The FTSE all share, the 250 and so on - they're all the same(ish) pattern. Fluctuating more as opening up news, antidote news and trade war stuff arises.

[KenjiOgiwara]

Yeah sorry should've stated ftse100. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

I’ve bought a lot of stocks for the long term since the crash but I’m expecting another drop before they prop it up again. I’ve got some powder dry for it. 
 

Nasdeq is off the charts and looking like serious bubble territory to me.

[Vive_La_Villa]

12 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

There's definitely something very ichy about the markets now. But that's just my opinion. 

 

I agree.  

[Vive_La_Villa]

Sorry to make the thread about the stock market but surely we are technically in a bear market by now?

[KenjiOgiwara]

19 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Sorry to make the thread about the stock market but surely we are technically in a bear market by now?

Technically we were in a bear market methinks. Old school it was market decline above 20%, but since we've had a V recovery you can argue it was a short term correction as FED intervened and now we're still in a bull market. Personally I'd say we're in a bear market, but it's camoflagued by FED. It's difficult to invest on fundamentals these days as FED just keeps changing the rule book. Earning money really isn't the most important bit anymore, however absurd that seems. I'm willing to bet a LOT of value investors that are well clued in about what they are doing, got worse returns than the index the last 5 years, simply cause it's impossible to position yourself in the market.

Take Buffett as an example. I don't believe their only reason to keep their warchest tight is because the reason they have stated "i.e. coming through this economic storm while being able to take care of their companies." Paraphrased mind. I think it's just as much because they can't see how fundamentals will work as long Trump is in power. Might as well wait it out until it crashes good and proper. 

I do however wonder if you mean recession. And I actually don't know if we're in a recession in the UK or US. I think recession is nailed on in Germany, Italy etc. But they keep changing the definition of recession. When I was younger they defined recession as negative economic growth for two quarters going. But I heard someone said they recently changed the definition of this in the US. Wouldn't surprise me. 

Edited July 10, 2020 by KenjiOgiwara

[Vive_La_Villa]

1 minute ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

Technically we were in a bear market methinks. Old school it was market decline above 20%, but since we've had a V recovery you can argue it was a short term correction as FED intervened and now we're still in a bull market. Personally I'd say we're in a bear market, but it's camoflagued by FED. 

I do however wonder if you mean recession. And I actually don't know if we're in a recession in the UK or US. I think recession is nailed on in Germany, Italy etc. But they keep changing the definition of recession. When I was younger they defined recession as negative economic growth for two quarters going. But I heard someone said they recently changed the definition of this in the US. Wouldn't surprise me. 

Bear market for European markets? They are still all trading below the 200 daily sma which is what I look at. Most stocks are the same. 
 

US is just a different beast all together.

[KenjiOgiwara]

Dax is less than than 10% down from it's ATH in February. Not sure what markets you mean? FTSE? 

I feel maybe FTSE is difficult from the Brexit POV. 

I don't actually know how much OSE is down. I suspect the Norwegian market got hammered due to oil and corona, but gotta check.

Edited July 10, 2020 by KenjiOgiwara

[KenjiOgiwara]

I don't know about IBEX or the Italian one, but it's probably safe to assume it's in a bear market still. 

I still feel European indexes are relatively uninteresting. Maybe it's my ignorance showing, but I just think the US markets are interesting as they are leading the show either way. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

23 minutes ago, KenjiOgiwara said:

I don't know about IBEX or the Italian one, but it's probably safe to assume it's in a bear market still. 

I still feel European indexes are relatively uninteresting. Maybe it's my ignorance showing, but I just think the US markets are interesting as they are leading the show either way. 

Depends on your what positions you like to take. If you like to trade on the short side then European markets can be interesting. FTSE, CAC, IBEX and MIB all look in bear markets. Dax is the exception of course.

Even US isnt that strong at the moment Nasdeq aside. id be very cautious if you're long. 

[KenjiOgiwara]

Yeah I don't trade either way. 

And agreed, US isn't sexy atm. 

To be honest I've liquidated all my positions except private pension savings. Just a casino atm. and I'd rather sit this one out. Not something I normally do, and I guess I'll lose more on that decision, than I make on just being 100% in the market at all times, but at least I sleep better when I don't feel okey with it. 

[Demitri_C]

On 09/07/2020 at 09:11, KenjiOgiwara said:

Yeah I get that. Just saying I think there's no chance a 3 year fixed rate will be beneficial. You're just paying more than you should. But from the point of sleeping better knowing you're aware of your monthly payments I get that. 

The rates are so low kenji and they will be for a while so its really not going to make a massive difference if it goes up or down in the immediate  future.