HanoiVillan Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 16 minutes ago, darrenm said: I don't understand why no-one else is mentioning that this will probably be a non issue by the new year because of at least one of the vaccines. It's the 23rd of September. A vaccine is not going to have been manufactured in sufficient quantity and distributed widely enough for this not to be an issue by the end of the year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said: It's the 23rd of September. A vaccine is not going to have been manufactured in sufficient quantity and distributed widely enough for this not to be an issue by the end of the year. Whitty and Valance said there was a chance that a vaccine was going to be available by the end of the year for “selected groups”. They also mentioned the situation to be a 6 month problem. Quote In a televised press conference alongside England’s chief medical officer, Professor Chris Whitty, Sir Patrick said a number of candidates have shown they can generate an immune response that ought to be protective. "Many vaccines now have shown they generate an immune response of a type that ought to be protective," he said. “We don’t yet know they will work but there is increasing evidence that is pointing in the right direction and it is possible that some vaccine could be available before the end of the year in small amounts for certain groups. "Much more likely that we’ll see vaccines becoming available over the first half of next year, again not certain but pointed in the right direction, which then of course gives the possibility of a different approach to this virus." Link 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Just now, HanoiVillan said: It's the 23rd of September. A vaccine is not going to have been manufactured in sufficient quantity and distributed widely enough for this not to be an issue by the end of the year. As far as I'm aware from reading various reports over the last few months, AstraZeneca started increasing production capacity in June to be able to fulfill their various contracts of ChAdOx-Cov19 to initially the UK and then other groups and countries. The UK has ordered 100m units, the US 200m and production can scale very quickly. Phase 3 trials are almost complete and can skip full analysis for vulnerable people, even if we weren't already in a desperate situation. I'd be very surprised if a few million doses aren't already sat on shelves somewhere. https://www.ft.com/content/e5012891-58da-4a4f-8a05-182adf3ba0e2?shareType=nongift Quote When the AstraZeneca trial restarted in the UK in September, the company said it was still on track to submit its vaccine for regulatory approval before the end of the year. Some 18,000 individuals in the UK, US, South Africa and Brazil have received its AZD1222 vaccine as part of the trial so far. After initial phase 3 trial results are available, a successful vaccine could be approved by the relevant national regulator within one month, analysts estimate, allowing for the early delivery of the shot to vulnerable groups The whole point of locking down is to protect vulnerable people. If vulnerable people can have the vaccine around new year, potentially most of the lockdown measures can be lifted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post HanoiVillan Posted September 23, 2020 Popular Post Share Posted September 23, 2020 @darrenm see @Genie's comment above. I don't want to rule out *any* vaccine having been distributed to *anybody*, but the approval, production, distribution and logistical challenges are substantial. I think you're too optimistic about the timelines, and by some distance (though of course I would be delighted for you to be proven right). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Just now, HanoiVillan said: @darrenm see @Genie's comment above. I don't want to rule out *any* vaccine having been distributed to *anybody*, but the approval, production, distribution and logistical challenges are substantial. I think you're too optimistic about the timelines, and by some distance (though of course I would be delighted for you to be proven right). Fair enough. I'm pretty sure the production already started a while ago. This was on the 5th June: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52917118 Quote "We are starting to manufacture this vaccine right now - and we have to have it ready to be used by the time we have the results," he said. AstraZeneca says it will be able supply two billion doses of the vaccine. Speaking to the BBC's Today programme, Mr Soriot said manufacturing was beginning already because, "we want to be as fast as possible". Since then the trials have gone better than expected with almost no interruptions and a strong immune response shown so if anything they will have become more confident to invest and ramp up production in readiness. Distribution yes would be a challenge. Approval is decided by the governing body which is conveniently, the government. Perhaps I am too optimistic with the timescales but I'm basing it on how desperate I think the situation is about to get. The end of furlough, more lockdown restrictions of hospitality, businesses going bump everywhere - I can just see the government seeing this is their lifeline and parting the seas to get it through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 I read or saw somewhere that the government plans to use pharmacy’s to administer a lot of vaccines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 (edited) 24 minutes ago, darrenm said: Phase 3 trials are almost complete and can skip full analysis for vulnerable people, even if we weren't already in a desperate situation. 24 minutes ago, darrenm said: The whole point of locking down is to protect vulnerable people. If vulnerable people can have the vaccine around new year, potentially most of the lockdown measures can be lifted. Whilst this might happen and it might turn out to be all dandy - if it didn't turn out okay, it would look like the most brutally callous act by a (just about) non-totalitarian government ever. Edited September 23, 2020 by snowychap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, snowychap said: Whilst this might happen and it might turn out to be all dandy - if it didn't turn out okay, it would look like the most brutally callous act by a (just about) non-totalitarian government ever. Yes and this could slow them down a bit. The FDA are currently playing up about the Oxford vaccine. Absolutely nothing to do with Pfizer having a candidate I'm sure. I guess the UK gov will be tempted to wait until the FDA also approves whichever they use because then they can share responsibility if it goes pear shaped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 Yes some people have experienced adverse reactions to the Oxford one. Don't think anything will be available to the general public until at least next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 15 minutes ago, darrenm said: Yes and this could slow them down a bit. The FDA are currently playing up about the Oxford vaccine. Absolutely nothing to do with Pfizer having a candidate I'm sure. I guess the UK gov will be tempted to wait until the FDA also approves whichever they use because then they can share responsibility if it goes pear shaped. I'm hoping (and suspecting) that your comments are observations rather than suggestions. I do think, as I've said before. that the clamour for a vaccine at speed and almost at any cost is a real problem. Unfortunately, caution on this often gets confused with 'anti-vaxxer' stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 1 minute ago, snowychap said: I'm hoping (and suspecting) that your comments are observations rather than suggestions Absolutely. It's purely so I can quote it and be smug if I'm right and never mention it again if I'm wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 4 minutes ago, darrenm said: Absolutely. It's purely so I can quote it and be smug if I'm right and never mention it again if I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bannedfromHandV Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 I wonder how much it will cost to get ‘vaccinated’. Said it before but I’m not sure how comfortable I am or would be with being injected with something that we know, for sure has been rushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dodgyknees Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 1 hour ago, Genie said: I read or saw somewhere that the government plans to use pharmacy’s to administer a lot of vaccines. I’ve heard from a good source that venues such as theatres have been asked about availability for Spring 2021 in case needed for public service. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 22 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said: I wonder how much it will cost to get ‘vaccinated’. Said it before but I’m not sure how comfortable I am or would be with being injected with something that we know, for sure has been rushed. I'd actually be fairly relaxed about it. I know a few people who've been part of the trials. Obviously very limited scope but they've been fine. Certainly with the Oxford vaccine, it's an adenovirus delivered bit of RNA. They're very standard and well known. It's why it's been developed so quick, they had the vaccine template ready as a generic coronavirus vaccine that has been worked on for years because they've known this was coming for a long time. No-one will risk a modern Polio. The places where I think they'll be able to cut a lot of time will be shortcutting paperwork and removing standard clerical delays. If the experts in this field say it's safe, that'll be good enough for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted September 23, 2020 Moderator Share Posted September 23, 2020 2 hours ago, Genie said: I read or saw somewhere that the government plans to use pharmacy’s to administer a lot of vaccines. I always get my flu jab at Boots or Tesco, so have been surprised that Handcock has been crowing about it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted September 23, 2020 Share Posted September 23, 2020 40 minutes ago, darrenm said: No-one will risk a modern Polio. It's a view, certainly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted September 24, 2020 Share Posted September 24, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted September 24, 2020 VT Supporter Share Posted September 24, 2020 10 hours ago, NurembergVillan said: I always get my flu jab at Boots or Tesco, so have been surprised that Handcock has been crowing about it. Yeah isn't it fairly standard to get certain vaccinations at pharmacies? I got a round of travel vaccinations at a Lloyds Pharmacy once (cost a shit load mind you) Seems pretty sensible to suggest using them for a vaccination that would need to be rolled out as widely as this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villakram Posted September 24, 2020 Author Share Posted September 24, 2020 23 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: @darrenm see @Genie's comment above. I don't want to rule out *any* vaccine having been distributed to *anybody*, but the approval, production, distribution and logistical challenges are substantial. I think you're too optimistic about the timelines, and by some distance (though of course I would be delighted for you to be proven right). More importantly, none of the current well advertised corporate vaccines are actually vaccines as understood in the normal sense. They are all essentially immune system stimulants. There is no data on how useful any of them will be. Plan on purchasing some vit D and take 2000iu per day (vital for all us northern pasty white types), sleep and eat well. A better and proven anti-covid strategy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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