markavfc40 Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 (edited) 13 hours ago, HanoiVillan said: I'm not on board with 'lockdowns don't do anything', but the claim 'lockdowns have saved 9/10 potential deaths' is if anything even more unlikely. I think the likely outcome is probably at a point somewhere in between these two extremes. I'd imagine we have at times sailed pretty close to the wind, possibly much closer than we realise, to hospitals becoming overwhelmed, and drs/nurses/paramedics, deciding at the hospital doors or patients home who gets help and who doesn't. It is not a stretch to think that had we have had no lockdowns then we could have seen a doubling in cases, resulting in a doubling in hospitalisations, with the then almost certainty that many who could have been saved wouldn't have had access to treatment due to hospitals being overwhelmed, which would then have resulted in 3 or 4 times the deaths we have had. As tough as it has been mentally for many people in lock down I think the above scenario and the realisation that you could get sick and not be able to get help would have also had severe mental health implications and a huge effect on us as a society. I got to be honest like many I am well and truly suffering from lock down fatigue and pissed off with it all. I am lucky in that all through this I have still been able to carry out my job which has given me something to focus on but getting to the middle of the week and having nothing to look forward come the end of it is becoming soul destroying. I often think surely we should be opening up now, we can't carry on like this for much longer or even that these lockdowns aren't worth it. In the cold light of day, without my feeling sorry for myself head on, I know these lockdowns have been worth it though. Just as I did during the middle of the first wave I still find it so frustrating when people say we have x amount of deaths so why are we locking down, even flu kills x amount etc. The reality is though we have had 150k+ covid deaths (based on ONS figures) with lockdowns but the reality without them would have been far worse and the consequences to mental health and society from that outcome, with hospitals overwhelmed, would have been at least on a par with the effect lockdowns have had. Edited March 27, 2021 by markavfc40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 You can never answer that “what if we didn’t lockdown” question because deaths wouldn’t have only been caused by COVID. They would have been caused by a myriad of connected matters. Putting it simply; if COVID was left to run unrestricted we could have seen a shortage of a particular skilled worker combined with a desperate need for that skill. For instance a major power outage and a shortage of electrical engineers who could fix it. The power outage would have caused further deaths and further knock on effects. No electricity causes traffic lights to fail. That leads to a bad road accident which leads to gridlock which slows down the transportation of parts needed to repair the power outage. That causes prolonged power outages which disrupts the gas supply. And so on....... Never underestimate how fragile our way of life is. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 27, 2021 Moderator Share Posted March 27, 2021 3 hours ago, markavfc40 said: I'd imagine we have at times sailed pretty close to the wind, possibly much closer than we realise, to hospitals becoming overwhelmed, and drs/nurses/paramedics, deciding at the hospital doors or patients home who gets help and who doesn't. We got more than close to it, it happened. It’s not really made the news much, but there are myriad personal tales from Doctors and Nurses in blogs and Twitter reporting their experience of it happening at their hospitals. There’s been the odd Newsnight reporting on it, the odd newspaper report, but mostly it’s been I think deliberately downplayed for fear of causing panic and loss of faith for people needing hospital treatment and being consequently put off. lack of PPE, lack of beds, lack of staff, lack of oxygen, doctors with COVID told to keep going to work... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 (edited) 7 hours ago, sidcow said: The mortality rates are only worked out on confirmed cases so that's irrelevant. The point he was making is that early on in the pandemic most of the testing was done in hospitals, so the people with mild cases who didn't go to hospital didn't get tested and didn't show up in the figures. Obviously covid is going to look more dangerous than it actually is if you're only testing seriously ill patients. For what it's worth, I agree with you that we're probably releasing more accurate statistics than many other countries. I'd be interested in how many rely on death certificates rather than "died within 28 days of a positive test" like we do, as that'll naturally show lower deaths. Edited March 27, 2021 by Panto_Villan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 27, 2021 Moderator Share Posted March 27, 2021 8 hours ago, StefanAVFC said: I agree. Hundreds of thousands, probably millions likely had the virus without having a positive test meaning this 3.4% mortality rate is just bunkum. Not entirely. If you take a sample of say 1000 people, test all of them, find n are negative and y are positive, and then track the outcome for those people, then you get a figure x number of dead, then you can get the mortality rate, for that sample. And that kind of stuff has been going on. A lot. Not least with the vaccine trials, where they use control groups as well as people that are given the vaccine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 27, 2021 Share Posted March 27, 2021 The alternative to draconian lockdown’s isn’t just a COVID orgy. There are a range of things in between. You will never get this mythical “4 times as many deaths” scenario because even if the government does nothing citizens will take it along themselves to self isolate, particularly those who consider themselves in a vulnerable group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 27, 2021 Moderator Share Posted March 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, LondonLax said: The alternative to draconian lockdown’s isn’t just a COVID orgy. There are a range of things in between. You will never get this mythical “4 times as many deaths” scenario because even if the government does nothing citizens will take it along themselves to self isolate, particularly those who consider themselves in a vulnerable group. You realise British people have a rather strange penchant for self-harm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 27, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 27, 2021 21 minutes ago, LondonLax said: The alternative to draconian lockdown’s isn’t just a COVID orgy. There are a range of things in between. You will never get this mythical “4 times as many deaths” scenario because even if the government does nothing citizens will take it along themselves to self isolate, particularly those who consider themselves in a vulnerable group. The most naive post I've seen. If people weren't made to lockdown there would be millions mixing all over the shop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Kingman Posted March 28, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted March 28, 2021 3 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Moderna vaccines arriving from the States mid April. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 35 minutes ago, Kingman said: Is that your personal belief or some random unattributed quote? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Kingman Posted March 28, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted March 28, 2021 28 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Is that your personal belief or some random unattributed quote? Read it again!.. 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted March 28, 2021 Moderator Share Posted March 28, 2021 I'll take Skegness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 Just now, OutByEaster? said: I'll take Skegness. Ohhh you big tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 28, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 28, 2021 24 minutes ago, Kingman said: Read it again!.. I missed that completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 3 minutes ago, sidcow said: I missed that completely. Me too. Had to read it about 6 times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 28, 2021 VT Supporter Share Posted March 28, 2021 Daily Heil. Apologies. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9410137/Moderna-jabs-rolled-3-weeks-50s-Britains-vaccine-drive-shifts-gear.html Moderna jabs will be rolled-out in 3 weeks to the under-50s as Britain's vaccine drive shifts up a gear - and Boris says he's counting the days to a pint and a haircut Quote Britain's world-beating vaccine rollout will move up another gear in mid-April when the Moderna jab is deployed for the first time, The Mail on Sunday understands. The imminent arrival of more than 500,000 doses of the new US vaccine – to add to millions of Pfizer and Oxford-AstraZeneca shots – will herald the expansion of the programme to the under-50s. Doctors are expected to administer the first Moderna jabs within three weeks. Quote Moderna, which was codenamed 'Renown' by the Government during the American company's development process, is being manufactured by the Swiss-based Lonza biotech company. Trials found that it was 94.1 per cent effective at preventing symptomatic infection after the second dose. Quote In a private briefing to MPs last week, he said that by next year Britain will have the capacity to make 140 million vaccine doses a year at a new site in Oxford, a further 140 million in Braintree, Essex, and 200 million a year in Livingston in Scotland. Mr Zahawi said: 'It was a deliberate decision of the Prime Minister to build production capacity. It means we're on course to become one of the world's global powerhouses for vaccines, both to help everyone in the UK and to work with other countries.' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 57 minutes ago, Kingman said: Read it again!.. arse! you, know what, it took more than just the one extra read... more coffee required Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 5000 people attended a rock concert in Barcelona last night. Had to wear a face mask but no social distancing with people packed in like a concert in normal times. Everyone had to take an antigen test on the day of the concert which was included in price of tickets which were €23-€28. 5000 attend rock concert 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted March 28, 2021 Share Posted March 28, 2021 53 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: arse! you, know what, it took more than just the one extra read... more coffee required I must admit losing that extra hour caught me out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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