Generic Virus Thread

[Genie]

7 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Our big falls in new cases is levelling right off.  Be interesting to see if the deaths and hospital admissions start to level off in a couple of weeks as well as supposedly a lot of the new cases are with children (you know, the ones who don't catch it at school). 

This is true, we’d expect the relationship between infections and deaths to change in the UK as the majority of those at risk of death are vaccinated.

Is there a ratio somewhere of infections to deaths? 

[sidcow]

Meanwhile in Europe cases continue to spiral.  Germany now closing the border with France. 

It's interesting that a lot of the problems are being blamed on the fact that the Kent variant is now the main strain.  It's obviously been through the UK like a dose of salts.  It's more deadly and more contagious than the original strain.  I await to see if those nations who are supposed to be much better than us at dealing with Coronavirus do in fact deal with it better or if they've just been lucky not to have it on their shores up till now. 

Certainly Merkel seems to be in a bit of a flap at the moment. 

[bannedfromHandV]

49 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Yes, people are worried about a disease that's killed 150,000 mothers and fathers, sons and daughters, sisters and brothers. 

And that's when we've been mainly locked down.  If we'd have not locked down it would probably be a couple of million dead just in the UK. 

Yep, but again, you do not cut off the head to cure a headache. What needed to be done has been done, this shit cannot just continue indefinitely! 
 

And looking at it from a statistical perspective is just as valid as doing so from an emotional one.

[LondonLax]

2 hours ago, sidcow said:

Yes, people are worried about a disease that's killed 150,000 mothers and fathers, sons and daughters, sisters and brothers. 

And that's when we've been mainly locked down.  If we'd have not locked down it would probably be a couple of million dead just in the UK. 

Some grist for the mill

[HanoiVillan]

It seems extremely unlikely to me that we would be seeing a pandemic 10x larger in the absence of lockdowns. Our lockdowns have generally been particularly drastic by international standards, yet countries with less stringent lockdowns (not only Sweden but also the US, most of which has essentially never shut indoor dining for instance) have similar-or-even-somewhat-lower death rates.

I'm not on board with 'lockdowns don't do anything', but the claim 'lockdowns have saved 9/10 potential deaths' is if anything even more unlikely.

Edited March 26, 2021 by HanoiVillan

[sidcow]

6 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

It seems extremely unlikely to me that we would be seeing a pandemic 10x larger in the absence of lockdowns. Our lockdowns have generally been particularly drastic by international standards, yet countries with less stringent lockdowns (not only Sweden but also the US, most of which has essentially never shut indoor dining for instance) have similar-or-even-somewhat-lower death rates.

I'm not on board with 'lockdowns don't do anything', but the claim 'lockdowns have saved 9/10 potential deaths' is if anything even more unlikely.

A couple of million was literally off the top of my head but looking at it WHO say the average mortality rate globally is 3.4%.

Uk population is about 66m so allowed to roam unchecked that would be 2.24m.  OK, maybe herd immunity might start to kick in around 1.5m.

I am absolutely amazed that with 150k dead despite the lockdown (and vaccine rollout) you don't see it could easily have been 10 times worse without lockdown.  It also would have burned through the population miles before the vaccine rollout.

Also hundreds of thousands would have got zero medical help so we would probably have a mortality rate well ahead of the global average. People would be dying in their homes like some kind of apocalypse movie. 

[HanoiVillan]

4 minutes ago, sidcow said:

A couple of million was literally off the top of my head but looking at it WHO say the average mortality rate globally is 3.4%.

Uk population is about 66m so allowed to roam unchecked that would be 2.24m.  OK, maybe herd immunity might start to kick in around 1.5m.

I am absolutely amazed that with 150k dead despite the lockdown (and vaccine rollout) you don't see it could easily have been 10 times worse without lockdown.  It also would have burned through the population miles before the vaccine rollout.

Also hundreds of thousands would have got zero medical help so we would probably have a mortality rate well ahead of the global average. People would be dying in their homes like some kind of apocalypse movie. 

You can be amazed if you want, but at some point you need to grapple with the point that - despite a wide variety of differing strengths of lockdown around the world - no country at all has had a pandemic with ten times the death rate of ours. In fact, we have one of the worst death rates in the world.

[sidcow]

16 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

It seems extremely unlikely to me that we would be seeing a pandemic 10x larger in the absence of lockdowns. Our lockdowns have generally been particularly drastic by international standards, yet countries with less stringent lockdowns (not only Sweden but also the US, most of which has essentially never shut indoor dining for instance) have similar-or-even-somewhat-lower death rates.

I'm not on board with 'lockdowns don't do anything', but the claim 'lockdowns have saved 9/10 potential deaths' is if anything even more unlikely.

Also Sweden has 25.4 inhabitants per sq mile. 

USA has 93 inhabitants per sq mile. 

UK has 275 inhabitants per sq mile

What happens in sparsely populated countries is irrelevant compared to what happens in densely populated placed.  New York had a mortality rate of 9.2% in their first wave. They were burying people in mass graves on an island. It's not a virus you want running rampant. 

[sidcow]

2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

You can be amazed if you want, but at some point you need to grapple with the point that - despite a wide variety of differing strengths of lockdown around the world - no country at all has had a pandemic with ten times the death rate of ours. In fact, we have one of the worst death rates in the world.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6946a2.htm

COVID-19 Outbreak — New York City, February 29–June 1, 2020

Quote

Approximately 203,000 cases of laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 were reported in NYC during the first 3 months of the pandemic. The crude fatality rate among confirmed cases was 9.2% overall and 32.1% among hospitalized patients. Incidence, hospitalization rates, and mortality were highest among Black/African American and Hispanic/Latino persons, as well as those who were living in neighborhoods with high poverty, aged ≥75 years, and with underlying medical conditions.

 

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

Also Sweden has 25.4 inhabitants per sq mile. 

USA has 93 inhabitants per sq mile. 

UK has 275 inhabitants per sq mile

What happens in sparsely populated countries is irrelevant compared to what happens in densely populated placed.  New York had a mortality rate of 9.2% in their first wave. They were burying people in mass graves on an island. It's not a virus you want running rampant. 

No, it's not about population density: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-population-density

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6946a2.htm

COVID-19 Outbreak — New York City, February 29–June 1, 2020

 

The obvious problem with that data is that it is not measuring what we are talking about. The UK has seen about 0.2% of it's population die with covid; in New York city it is about 0.26%, not 2%.

[sidcow]

If anyone believes the reported cases / deaths in many countries then they are mugs. 

If you believe the figures, Africa has been almost completely unaffected. There are many reports that the deaths in Brazil have been massively under reported.  

We may have one of the worst death rates in the world on official figures but I would bet my house there are many many worse countries where it's just not been reported properly. 

[sidcow]

Just now, HanoiVillan said:

No, it's not about population density: https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/covid-19-death-rate-vs-population-density

The obvious problem with that data is that it is not measuring what we are talking about. The UK has seen about 0.2% of it's population die with covid; in New York city it is about 0.26%, not 2%.

OK I agree.  Let covid run free and it's basically going to be all OK. 

Don't know why all these countries are literally destroying their economies the daft pricks. 

[HanoiVillan]

6 minutes ago, sidcow said:

If anyone believes the reported cases / deaths in many countries then they are mugs. 

If you believe the figures, Africa has been almost completely unaffected. There are many reports that the deaths in Brazil have been massively under reported.  

We may have one of the worst death rates in the world on official figures but I would bet my house there are many many worse countries where it's just not been reported properly.

Let me guess, if I changed all the data points on that graph to your chinny reckons, I'd get p=1

4 minutes ago, sidcow said:

OK I agree.  Let covid run free and it's basically going to be all OK. 

Don't know why all these countries are literally destroying their economies the daft pricks. 

EDIT: Actually, this comment isn't even worth engaging with.

Edited March 26, 2021 by HanoiVillan

[sidcow]

Just now, HanoiVillan said:

Let me guess, if I changed all the data points on that graph to your chinny reckons, I'd get p=1

While it's definitely more fun to just make up a dumb argument and pretend that somebody else is making it, it's normally considered pretty poor form in a discussion.

 

[HanoiVillan]

@sidcow Fair enough, I'm bored too, and I'm sure everybody else is as well. Have yourself a lovely evening.

[El Zen]

In the news today, Norway’s Public Health Institute say «May could be the worst month yet». Lovely. Just great. Keep up the good work

[Jareth]

4 minutes ago, El Zen said:

In the news today, Norway’s Public Health Institute say «May could be the worst month yet». Lovely. Just great. Keep up the good work

Meanwhile in Barry Island today -

[chrisp65]

43 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Meanwhile in Barry Island today -

Can confirm.

Throw in some Mountain Warehouse fleeces and that’s pretty much bang on the scenes an hour ago.

 

 

[StefanAVFC]

11 hours ago, sidcow said:

If anyone believes the reported cases / deaths in many countries then they are mugs. 

I agree. Hundreds of thousands, probably millions likely had the virus without having a positive test meaning this 3.4% mortality rate is just bunkum. 

[sidcow]

39 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

I agree. Hundreds of thousands, probably millions likely had the virus without having a positive test meaning this 3.4% mortality rate is just bunkum. 

The mortality rates are only worked out on confirmed cases so that's irrelevant.