The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[HanoiVillan]

22 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

We are screwing ourselves over. 

I know it seems like it, but I don't think this is right really. The voters for these parties in these London constituencies are just not particularly interchangeable. 

[StefanAVFC]

1 minute ago, HanoiVillan said:

I know it seems like it, but I don't think this is right really. The voters for these parties in these London constituencies are just not particularly interchangeable. 

29+27+2 > 39

It's the same in the City and London constituency. 

If people truly didn't want Boris and the Tories, they'd hold their nose and sort it out.

[Wainy316]

45 minutes ago, Genie said:

The one that doesn't cost me my job and home.

Dean?

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, StefanAVFC said:

29+27+2 > 39

It's the same in the City and London constituency. 

If people truly didn't want Boris and the Tories, they'd hold their nose and sort it out.

That's the problem though. Kensington is a constituency divided between very wealthy parts and very poor parts. There are lots and lots of tower block residents who are a Labour bloc vote; they are not going to vote Lib Dem under any circumstances. There are also lots of wealthy people in town houses, many of whom doubtless see themselves as social liberals or don't want to leave the EU, but would never vote for a Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn or committed to left-wing economic policies. You can't treat these groups of voters as if they're the same thing. 

[StefanAVFC]

Just now, HanoiVillan said:

That's the problem though. Kensington is a constituency divided between very wealthy parts and very poor parts. There are lots and lots of tower block residents who are a Labour bloc vote; they are not going to vote Lib Dem under any circumstances. There are also lots of wealthy people in town houses, many of whom doubtless see themselves as social liberals or don't want to leave the EU, but would never vote for a Labour party led by Jeremy Corbyn or committed to left-wing economic policies. You can't treat these groups of voters as if they're the same thing. 

They are all essentially voting for Tories and Johnson then. Because of their sheer stubbornness. 

That's our system.

Edited December 10, 2019 by StefanAVFC

[tonyh29]

23 minutes ago, Awol said:

The Ashworth tape is astonishing. 

If Labour win the “No.10 machine (civil servants) will have to move quickly to safeguard national security”.

That from a Labour front-bencher. 

its ok it was just banter   ....

its getting more coverage everywhere now  ,I expect it will get a mention in the BBC thread soon as yet more proof of the media picking on poor Jeremy 

 

 

[StefanAVFC]

I can't wait for Corbyn to go so people can stop using him as their excuse for voting for the most vile Government in a long time.

[HanoiVillan]

2 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

They are all essentially voting for Tories and Johnson then. Because of their sheer stubbornness. 

That's our system.

I think that's a bad way to look at voting in a three-way marginal. If we were talking about Crewe & Nantwich here, where it's a hyper-marginal and only two parties have a chance of winning, then you can make a strong argument that it's more sensible to vote for the least-worst option, even if you don't love them. However, that doesn't hold in a three-way marginal. Supporters of all three parties have evidence that they are competitive in the seat, and good reasons to prefer their choice than the others. It isn't even obvious who you would organise people to vote for (actually it is - you would encourage people to vote Labour. But the Observer are busy telling people to vote Lib Dem in the constituency, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Very Bad Postcode Sites were doing the same thing, so the messaging is not there and people don't want to do it anyway). 

[Awol]

4 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

its ok it was just banter   ....

its getting more coverage everywhere now  ,I expect it will get a mention in the BBC thread soon as yet more proof of the media picking on poor Jeremy 

 

 

Sounded like an honest, unguarded appraisal of Corbyn to me. Shameful that he holds that opinion but tries to get Corbyn elected anyway - while wanging on about honesty in politics. 

[StefanAVFC]

3 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I think that's a bad way to look at voting in a three-way marginal. If we were talking about Crewe & Nantwich here, where it's a hyper-marginal and only two parties have a chance of winning, then you can make a strong argument that it's more sensible to vote for the least-worst option, even if you don't love them. However, that doesn't hold in a three-way marginal. Supporters of all three parties have evidence that they are competitive in the seat, and good reasons to prefer their choice than the others. It isn't even obvious who you would organise people to vote for (actually it is - you would encourage people to vote Labour. But the Observer are busy telling people to vote Lib Dem in the constituency, and it wouldn't surprise me if the Very Bad Postcode Sites were doing the same thing, so the messaging is not there and people don't want to do it anyway). 

Lack of organisation and willingness to work together.

If you have multiple marginals, 1 party stands down in 1 and the other in another.

it's basic and it makes people consider what their priorities are. If 'stopping Brexit' and Johnson is THE priority, then regardless of their political differences, they need to start to work together. It's too late now but it's a huge failing. And it will result in a sizable majority on Friday morning for our Glorious Leader.

Edited December 10, 2019 by StefanAVFC

[snowychap]

38 minutes ago, ml1dch said:

 

 

Always play to your strengths.

[HanoiVillan]

1 minute ago, StefanAVFC said:

Lack of organisation and willingness to work together.

If you have multiple marginals, 1 party stands down in 1 and the other in another.

it's basic and it makes people consider what their priorities are. If 'stopping Brexit' and Johnson is THE priority, then regardless of their political differences, they need to start to work together. It's too late now but it's a huge failing. And it will result in a sizable majority on Friday morning for our Glorious Leader.

I think this is extremely naive. Voters may be balancing multiple priorities, voters are more often than not not interchangeable between parties, and national political parties who actually aim to govern cannot stand down for the benefit of their rivals. 

You're also placing too much emphasis on a very small number of constituencies. If Johnson has a 'sizable majority on Friday morning', it will be because of Tories taking a lot of Labour-held two-way marginals. There just aren't enough three-way marginals to give Johnson a 'sizable majority'. 

[StefanAVFC]

2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I think this is extremely naive. Voters may be balancing multiple priorities, voters are more often than not not interchangeable between parties, and national political parties who actually aim to govern cannot stand down for the benefit of their rivals. 

You're also placing too much emphasis on a very small number of constituencies. If Johnson has a 'sizable majority on Friday morning', it will be because of Tories taking a lot of Labour-held two-way marginals. There just aren't enough three-way marginals to give Johnson a 'sizable majority'. 

Every seat is hugely important here. Perhaps I was posting for effect when talking about a sizable majority in this argument. Although, I think that will be the outcome unfortunately.

Regardless of what we want, this election is being turned into a Brexit one. And a lack of united opposition is handing the keys to Johnson once again. 

Edited December 10, 2019 by StefanAVFC

[Davkaus]

24 minutes ago, Awol said:

Sounded like an honest, unguarded appraisal of Corbyn to me. 

Agreed, there's nothing humourous in his comments at all, it's a remarkable weak attempt at backtracking.

Of course, the fundamental mistake he made was trusting a tory.  

[HanoiVillan]

24 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Every seat is hugely important here. Perhaps I was posting for effect when talking about a sizable majority in this argument. Although, I think that will be the outcome unfortunately.

Regardless of what we want, this election is being turned into a Brexit one. And a lack of united opposition is handing the keys to Johnson once again. 

I'll make this my last post on this, but thank you for the friendly-but-frank discussion

There isn't any such thing as a 'united opposition' in a seat like Kensington. If you tried going into one of the tower blocks by Grenfell and asking someone struggling to get by, who has problems with Universal Credit, to vote for a guy who was a candidate in the Tory leadership contest less than six months ago and voted for every part of the Tory austerity program, you probably wouldn't get a friendly reception. If you went to a townhouse of a middle-class couple, who believe that Jeremy Corbyn is a personal anti-semite and a danger to their Jewish friends, and told them that they should vote for Labour, you probably also wouldn't get a friendly reception. These people aren't 'united' by anything; not by class interests, ideology, media consumption, perspective on the world, nothing. They're different voters who want to vote for different parties because they see the world differently and believe in different ideologies. It isn't just a coordination problem (and even if it was, it would be insurmountable in a three-way marginal). 

[Wainy316]

47 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

I can't wait for Corbyn to go so people can stop using him as their excuse for voting for the most vile Government in a long time.

You think that’s going to make any difference?  Once the right wing rags get the claws all over the new leader it will be as you were.

[StefanAVFC]

2 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

I'll make this my last post on this, but thank you for the friendly-but-frank discussion

There isn't any such thing as a 'united opposition' in a seat like Kensington. If you tried going into one of the tower blocks by Grenfell and asking someone struggling to get by, who has problems with Universal Credit, to vote for a guy who was a candidate in the Tory leadership contest less than six months ago and voted for every part of the Tory austerity program, you probably wouldn't get a friendly reception. If you went to a townhouse of a middle-class couple, who believe that Jeremy Corbyn is a personal anti-semite and a danger to their Jewish friends, and told them that they should vote for Labour, you probably also wouldn't get a friendly reception. These people aren't 'united' by anything; not by class interests, ideology, media consumption, perspective on the world, nothing. They're different voters who want to vote for different parties because they see the world differently and believe in different ideologies. It isn't just a coordination problem (and even if it was, it would be insurmountable in a three-way marginal). 

I think the difference in our perspectives is national v local. Depends on each voter's self-interests

Same to you 

[StefanAVFC]

My (incredibly safe) local MP

 

It's actually worse than that. He has retweeted multiple conspiracy theories too. Urgh.

Edited December 10, 2019 by StefanAVFC

[lapal_fan]

We should want the truth, whether it suits your preferred party or not. 

If the kid was put down on the floor, snapped, picked up and put on a bed again, then **** that person.

I work in a hospital, and I'm pretty sure a kid lying on the floor with pneumonia wouldn't happen. 

If it has, and there may be circumstances where i could happen, then it's really awful, but you need to be sure before we all get outraged.. 

[StefanAVFC]

3 minutes ago, lapal_fan said:

If it has, and there may be circumstances where i could happen, then it's really awful, but you need to be sure before we all get outraged.. 

The hospital chief has admitted that it happened and apologised.