The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread

[cyrusr]

35 minutes ago, snowychap said:

 

She/He’s absolutely right. Legal aid has been absolutely crippled by the Tories it’s at breaking point, in particular criminal legal aid. No increases during the Tory Governments and actually reduced so in real terms it has gone down significantly. Utter disgrace given that this is meant to be those that are in the most need and facing serious allegations/consequences. Tally that with the mass closure of courts there is a real detriment for people’s access to justice. 

Whether we spend more or less than other countries doesn’t matter, this country needs to spend more on legal aid to get it back to actually helping people or it will get a lot worse. 

[cyrusr]

3 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

It certainly is the most favourable so far, though note the new one from ComRes:

 

National Prediction: Conservative short 4 of majority

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	43.5%	318	42.8%	7	3	+4	322
LAB	41.0%	262	35.8%	2	12	-10	252
LIB	7.6%	12	11.9%	2	1	+1	13
Brexit	0.0%	0	3.0%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.7%	1	2.0%	0	0	+0	1
SNP	3.1%	35	3.7%	6	0	+6	41
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.5%	0	1	-1	3
UKIP	1.9%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.7%	0	0.2%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

Given that even the DUP don’t want to work with the Tories, only a total screw over by the Lib Dem’s would mean this isn’t a hung parliament. That might mean a referendum on Tory deal vs Remain but otherwise a non-functioning government, again. 

Edited December 10, 2019 by cyrusr

[peterms]

11 minutes ago, cyrusr said:

National Prediction: Conservative short 4 of majority

Party	2017 Votes	2017 Seats	Pred Votes	Gains	Losses	Net Change	Pred Seats
CON	43.5%	318	42.8%	7	3	+4	322
LAB	41.0%	262	35.8%	2	12	-10	252
LIB	7.6%	12	11.9%	2	1	+1	13
Brexit	0.0%	0	3.0%	0	0	+0	0
Green	1.7%	1	2.0%	0	0	+0	1
SNP	3.1%	35	3.7%	6	0	+6	41
PlaidC	0.5%	4	0.5%	0	1	-1	3
UKIP	1.9%	0	0.0%	0	0	+0	0
Other	0.7%	0	0.2%	0	0	+0	0
N.Ire		18		0	0	+0	18

Given that even the DUP don’t want to work with the Tories, only a total screw over by the Lib Dem’s would mean this isn’t a hung parliament. That might mean a referendum on Tory deal vs Remain but otherwise a non-functioning government, again. 

The DUP will support the tories, I think.

But the polls are very difficult to read.  I wouldn't want to be a pollster right now.

[cyrusr]

14 minutes ago, peterms said:

The DUP will support the tories, I think.

But the polls are very difficult to read.  I wouldn't want to be a pollster right now.

Nah DUP have come out and actively said they won’t support Johnson’s Brexit deal as it differentiates NI and the rest of the UK. In fact there’s been developments today on that Boris Johnson seems to have lost the trust of the DUP over Brexit Deal's threat to UK: 

Quote

...

Asked on BBC Radio 4's Today programme about the sense of some in the unionist community that Mr Johnson's deal was a "betrayal", she said: "I think it is right for the leadership of unionism in Northern Ireland to try to work with the prime minister of the day to get the best deal for Northern Ireland.

"We will always do that. We will continue to do that. I think it says more about the person who broke their word than me and the leadership of the... Democratic Unionist Party."

She said the DUP had been told by HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) officials before the PM announced his deal that there would be checks between the mainland and Northern Ireland.

Mrs Foster said a lack of free-flowing trade would cause "economic instability in Northern Ireland, which will lead to higher costs for retailers which will lead to less choice for our consumers in Northern Ireland".

"And all of that leads me to say that we need to - after this election is over, and I'm not prejudging the election in any one way, every vote will count - but what is important is that we have a strong team of DUP MPs back in Westminster to speak up for Northern Ireland."

Add to that, the Ulster Unionist Party say remain over Boris deal and every other NI party is anti-brexit, whilst the DUP remain Johnson’s best hope in a hung parliament, even they will not agree to his plan as is.

However, as you say, the polls are now getting very tight. Not going to be easy.

Edited December 10, 2019 by cyrusr

[TheAuthority]

Although we are very lucky and have a very good health plan through our union in New York (yes there are still a few unions left in the US,) after our son was born our bill when all said and done was north of $7,500. I just wanted to share that as I read through the last few pages, so you have another example of what you will be living with if private healthcare is the only option in the UK. $7,500 per every child you and your spouse decide you would like to be born. I estimate it will take us 4 to 5 years to pay that off.

I know we all supposedly live in media bubbles that are manipulated to divide us, and perhaps I am a victim of this. But looking at the 2 candidates and their policies how anyone can consider not voting for Corbyn is beyond me. Is he a great leader? probably not - but he has at least lived by his political principles throughout his career. He also seems to genuinely care about people less fortunate than himself.

Johnson is a lying, vacuous product of the English private school system who is only fueled by his ambition and assumed right to be important. When that snake suddenly promises lots of money for the NHS after years of the tories gutting it, I want to puke.

 

Edited December 10, 2019 by TheAuthority

[Genie]

I have this feeling that all the polls will under-predict the Tory total (like Brexit). I suspect people will keep the fact they are voting that way to themselves but mark the X next to conservative when it comes to polling day (for fear of being labelled racist).

[Dr_Pangloss]

10 hours ago, NurembergVillan said:

Captain Numbnuts reporting for duty!

[Rodders]

38 minutes ago, Genie said:

I have this feeling that all the polls will under-predict the Tory total (like Brexit). I suspect people will keep the fact they are voting that way to themselves but mark the X next to conservative when it comes to polling day (for fear of being labelled racist).

 

Maybe, but you'd think that very fact of feeling as though they'd have to keep quiet about it would be pause for thought. 

[Lichfield Dean]

Why do I have to break an embargo in order to expose press lies about Labour?

We’ve taken on the Mail on Sunday and won. But the newspaper regulator won’t correct the story till after the election

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/10/break-embargo-expose-press-lies-labour

[StefanAVFC]

1 hour ago, Genie said:

for fear of being labelled racist

Heartless. classist, racist

There are many more 'ist's' they should be worried of appearing.

[HanoiVillan]

38 minutes ago, Lichfield Dean said:

Why do I have to break an embargo in order to expose press lies about Labour?

We’ve taken on the Mail on Sunday and won. But the newspaper regulator won’t correct the story till after the election

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/dec/10/break-embargo-expose-press-lies-labour

Thank you for posting this. 

For anyone who hasn't clicked the link, please do, because it's very instructive, but to give it a brief overview:

1) Some academics, journalists and experts produce a report for Labour on land use;

2) Said report considers, but explicitly rejects, the idea of removing the capital gains tax exemption on main homes;

3) The Mail on Sunday, and other right wing papers, straightforwardly lie about this and claim the report endorses that idea (replete with quotes from Johnson, of course);

4) One author of the report takes the case to the laughably toothless press regulator, IPSO;

5) IPSO takes five months to rule;

6) IPSO rules against the Mail on Sunday, but says they don't have to publish a correction until after the election for some reason;

7) Monbiot breaks this embargo in this article.

The conclusion you should take from this is that newspapers will happily lie - brazenly state the opposite of the truth - when it is convenient for their political masters, and that a non-trivial part of the reason the media hate Corbyn so is his stated plan to conduct Leveson 2. We need a press regulator that can impose actual consequences on media outlets for lying. They clearly cannot be trusted to self-regulate. 

[Wainy316]

Hung parliament and Villa get relegated 

or

Tory majority and Villa stay up?

[colhint]

1 hour ago, StefanAVFC said:

Heartless. classist, racist

There are many more 'ist's' they should be worried of appearing.

I think this emphasises his point.

[Genie]

11 minutes ago, Wainy316 said:

Hung parliament and Villa get relegated 

or

Tory majority and Villa stay up?

The one that doesn't cost me my job and home.

[Mic09]

9 minutes ago, Genie said:

The one that doesn't cost me my job and home.

Do you play for Villa?

[colhint]

Where is Kier Starmer, I know you could also ask where is JRM. It seems all the press is about Boris and Jeremy. But if, as it seems to be all about Brexit, and Starmer is his Brexit man, where is he. He seems a reasonable person. I think Corbyn is marmite, Surely he should be talking about Brexit a lot more to counter Boris

[StefanAVFC]

It's a GE. Not a Brexit referendum.

JRM was a senior member of the Government. Starmer was a shadow minister for a specific department.

Why the false equivalence here? 

[StefanAVFC]

We are screwing ourselves over. 

[Awol]

The Ashworth tape is astonishing. 

If Labour win the “No.10 machine (civil servants) will have to move quickly to safeguard national security”.

That from a Labour front-bencher. 

[ml1dch]