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The Hung Like a Donkey General Election December 2019 Thread


Jareth

Which Cunch of Bunts are you voting for?  

141 members have voted

  1. 1. Which Cunch of Bunts Gets Your Hard Fought Cross

    • The Evil Abusers Of The Working Man Dark Blue Team
      27
    • The Hopelessly Divided Unicorn Chasing Red Team
      67
    • The Couldn't Trust Them Even You Wanted To Yellow Team
      25
    • The Demagogue Worshiping Light Blue Corportation
      2
    • The Hippy Drippy Green Team
      12
    • One of the Parties In The Occupied Territories That Hates England
      0
    • I Live In Northern Ireland And My Choice Is Dictated By The Leader Of A Cult
      0
    • I'm Out There And Found Someone Else To Vote For
      8

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  • Poll closed on 12/12/19 at 23:00

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3 minutes ago, mjmooney said:

And why wouldn't she be. 

I did think that. I mean, if she was on the fence before...

I mean, the important thing about making your child comfortable on hospital floors is that we get Brexit done, so maybe she should consider that.

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6 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

does anyone else always type YouGove and then have to remove the 'e', or is that just me?

I believe I may have done this a number of times, not always but enough for it to register with me as an occasional irritant

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1 minute ago, tonyh29 said:

I was commenting on  someone directly talking about why its national news and how the NHS has been a key battle ground in this election  , not making any comment on the plight of the family  , nor will you notice have the vast majority of posters commenting on the issue  ...

care to apologise for the dig  ?

 

You described a child who waited 13 hours for a bed in a hospital as a gift from god for the party you oppose. 

Apologies for it coming across as a dig but this doesn't really sit right with me.

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9 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

YouGov (does anyone else always type YouGove and then have to remove the 'e', or is that just me?) is always one of the pollsters showing the biggest Tory leads, so it's best not to get depressed whatever it shows.

British opinion polls really have a rank recent track record anyway (though of course they might get closer this time, you never know). 

I often find myself mistyping it as YouPobLookalikeWordRemoved.

The keys are right next to each other.

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11 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Which trust do you work for? The overwhelming opinion from the people I know at NUH is they're on their knees and **** shitting themselves about the next couple of months. Winter pressures have always been there and always will, but the under funding is pushing it closer and closer to breaking point. 

In some ways it's similar to the photo of Alan Kurdi. The wider problem should be the talking point, but one photo seems to capture more outrage than facts and figures. 

 

I work for WAHT, looking after Worcs, Kiddy and Alex (redditch). 

Half of me loves what PFI has done for the Trust, half of me hates it. 

I'm privy to a decent amount of financial information and it's not good news.  That said, NHS Trusts across the country (PFI especially) have been advised to go after private finance they use as a way to "earn" money, because Government funding has been so poor.  I've only worked here 18 months, but I know enough.  

If you go to Worcs, it's a nice hospital (the PFI part of it anyway), compared to Redditch it's lovely.  Kidderminster is half and half - you go through one door and you're in the 1980s, another and you're in the 2010s. 

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Pollsters go on about "Shy Tories". I've just looked at the polls from 2017 (they are on wiki) and with the exception of Survation they all vastly under-reported the Labour vote, It was actually Shy Labour supporters two years ago

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6 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

I was commenting on  someone directly talking about why its national news and how the NHS has been a key battle ground in this election  , not making any comment on the plight of the family  , nor will you notice have the vast majority of posters commenting on the issue  ...

care to apologise for the dig  ?

 

Talk of gifts and open goals is hardly going to help that poor kid either.

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For all the top level bantz on here with the baby eaters, it’s still the case that potentially the deciding factor on Thursday could be the weather.

A light frost and the pensioners will be scared for their hips. Extreme flooding and the students will be out in droves getting selfies of themselves voting in kayaks.

 

 

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4 minutes ago, lapal_fan said:

I work for WAHT, looking after Worcs, Kiddy and Alex (redditch). 

Half of me loves what PFI has done for the Trust, half of me hates it. 

I'm privy to a decent amount of financial information and it's not good news.  That said, NHS Trusts across the country (PFI especially) have been advised to go after private finance they use as a way to "earn" money, because Government funding has been so poor.  I've only worked here 18 months, but I know enough.  

If you go to Worcs, it's a nice hospital (the PFI part of it anyway), compared to Redditch it's lovely.  Kidderminster is half and half - you go through one door and you're in the 1980s, another and you're in the 2010s. 

There’s a little more to it than that, in my opinion.

In the dim and distant past, a new health service building would be built with care and supervision. The PFI buildings, not so much. They’ve been designed and specified to a budget. 

The debt will be there far far longer than the cladding panels and trendy grey framed double glazing.

 

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4 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

You described a child who waited 13 hours for a bed in a hospital as a gift from god for the party you oppose. 

Apologies for it coming across as a dig but this doesn't really sit right with me.

 I appreciate your reply  , and I agree fwiw , It shouldn't sit right with anyone 

tbh I thought it was clear I was talking about the situation and not the specific child ( as were most other posters in the discussion)  but to be clear I wasn't making light of the child's plight

 

 

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7 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

You described a child who waited 13 hours for a bed in a hospital as a gift from god for the party you oppose. 

Apologies for it coming across as a dig but this doesn't really sit right with me.

5 minutes ago, meregreen said:

Talk of gifts and open goals is hardly going to help that poor kid either.

I think this is being a bit sensitive, to be honest. I can't imagine for a moment @tonyh29 either thinks it's a good thing the kid was on the floor, or that Labour are glad it happened.

Politicians do exploit these events. Hell, I don't think Boris is glad about people being killed on the streets, but getting to go on TV to answer some easy questions and appear prime ministerial after the attacks in London a week ago certainly appeared a bit of a "gift" to the tory campaign.

I don't think it's displaying any kind of malice or lack of empathy to the victims to acknowledge that politicians turn tragedy to their advantage.

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5 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

For all the top level bantz on here with the baby eaters, it’s still the case that potentially the deciding factor on Thursday could be the weather.

A light frost and the pensioners will be scared for their hips. Extreme flooding and the students will be out in droves getting selfies of themselves voting in kayaks.

 

 

Big grey vote in my constituency. If it's cold, I'll be patrolling down the pavements with a **** watering can. 

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6 minutes ago, meregreen said:

Talk of gifts and open goals is hardly going to help that poor kid either.

true enough ,  though I've already addressed the general point you've raised in a different post, so I'll divert you to that one if I may    ...

 

 

 

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28 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

YouGov (does anyone else always type YouGove and then have to remove the 'e', or is that just me?) is always one of the pollsters showing the biggest Tory leads, so it's best not to get depressed whatever it shows.

British opinion polls really have a rank recent track record anyway (though of course they might get closer this time, you never know). 

I'm not sure that's correct, I believe YouGov get used mainly by The Times so tend to under-estimate the Tory leads, whereas stuff like Opinium gets used by The Observer and had a 15 point lead at the weekend probably to stop their particular readerships from getting complacent about voting.

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11 minutes ago, bickster said:

Pollsters go on about "Shy Tories". I've just looked at the polls from 2017 (they are on wiki) and with the exception of Survation they all vastly under-reported the Labour vote, It was actually Shy Labour supporters two years ago

The polls were absolutely useless in 2017, and of course they were bad in the other direction in 2015 as well. They were actually a little better for the referendum, but still not great. Nate Silver always trashes British pollsters, and usually makes some variant of the argument that they're always 'fighting the last war', which clearly has some truth to it. In 2015, young people barely turned out at all, and that was a large part of the polling error, so in 2017 pollsters weighted heavily against age in their turnout filter. Then in 2017 lots of lots of young people turned out, so they missed again going the other way (of course there were other causes too, but this was probably the main one). In 2019, most pollsters have attempted to solve this by just not weighting respondents for age (though I think Kantar still do).

Whether this will help or not, who knows. It seems to me the two most likely sources of error this time are weighting to the referendum result (all pollsters do this I think) and whatever impact the record-breaking number of new registrations brings. There is an outside possibility (to be optimistic for a minute) that all of those new voters registering is a sign of an enthusiasm differential that the data hasn't picked up. Time will tell. 

14 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

For all the top level bantz on here with the baby eaters, it’s still the case that potentially the deciding factor on Thursday could be the weather.

A light frost and the pensioners will be scared for their hips. Extreme flooding and the students will be out in droves getting selfies of themselves voting in kayaks.

I was reading something the other day that claimed weather is almost never a significant factor, even if it's bad. I can't remember where I read it or exactly what it said, but the figure of 0.2% difference has stuck in my mind. I wouldn't pin too much hope on it, but of course in tight races every little counts. 

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3 minutes ago, sharkyvilla said:

I'm not sure that's correct, I believe YouGov get used mainly by The Times so tend to under-estimate the Tory leads, whereas stuff like Opinium gets used by The Observer and had a 15 point lead at the weekend probably to stop their particular readerships from getting complacent about voting.

I don't believe they massage the numbers like that. They have a bad track record, and shouldn't be taken too seriously, but I don't think they're fraudulent to any meaningful extent. Anyway, both main parties have an incentive to show a close race right now (the Tories to avoid complacency about winning, and Labour to avoid people giving up hope of a lost cause). 

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3 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Speaking of giving up on a lost cause, how much do people think Labour can lose by with Corbyn still claiming he won? 

The boring, serious answer to that question is that I would expect Labour to immediately claim there was no mandate for Boris's Brexit deal if the Conservatives don't get a majority, and certainly if Labour + SNP + Green is greater than Tory. that would be a sensible way to start the jockeying to form a government in the case of a hung Parliament. 

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32 minutes ago, bickster said:

Pollsters go on about "Shy Tories". I've just looked at the polls from 2017 (they are on wiki) and with the exception of Survation they all vastly under-reported the Labour vote, It was actually Shy Labour supporters two years ago

and all of them from VT :)

 

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