Wesley Moraes

[Roitorb]

20 hours ago, DCJonah said:

This is meant to be a hype video for him. Its a struggle to actually find decent clips of him in a villa shirt. 

 

 

I actually think his passing is good and his hold up play looks good in the video. I’m just taking the positives out the negatives as I think if he was actually like that with Courintho  and Bendiua around him he’d actually be pretty affective. Obviously that’s before the injury.

[Roitorb]

Just now, Roitorb said:

I actually think his passing is good and his hold up play looks good in the video. I’m just taking the positives out the negatives as I think if he was actually like that with Courintho  and Bendiua around him he’d actually be pretty affective. Obviously that’s before the injury.

It’s obviously a highlights video so I know he’s not always like that.

[DCJonah]

11 minutes ago, sparrow1988 said:

I'm not trying to make stats prove any point. We've got one poster - you - whose eyes tell them that Watkins is the better finisher and another - @Tom13 whose eyes tell them that that Wes is. I just went and looked and the stats to see what they say.

The stat that I mentioned is widely accepted as one of the main ones for assessing a striker's finishing ability, and it shows that Wesley in his short space of time and limited number of games in the PL before the now likely career ending injury finished chances better than Watkins. Other metrics state that Watkins gets more chances, and also scores more goals than Wesley.

What would most likely happen is a club's data department would produce a list of potential strikers to be signed. Let's assume that it is narrowed down to these two players. The scout would then go watch both players and probably come to the conclusion that Watkins is the better fit because although he misses more than Wes, he gets in to goalscoring positions more often, scores more goals, and provides more to the team as a whole. Being better at scoring goals doesn't mean automatically that he is a better finisher.

I agree with large chunks of this. 

Which of Wesley's 5 goals could Watkins not score? I could name multiple goals Watkins scored that Wes couldn't do in his dreams. 

The stats you've used don't take into account the small sample size of Wes in a villa shirt or take into account the actual goals. 

I genuinely can't believe that anyone believes Wes is a better finisher than Watkins. And I'm not even a big Watkins fan. 

[sparrow1988]

47 minutes ago, DCJonah said:

I agree with large chunks of this. 

Which of Wesley's 5 goals could Watkins not score? I could name multiple goals Watkins scored that Wes couldn't do in his dreams. 

The stats you've used don't take into account the small sample size of Wes in a villa shirt or take into account the actual goals. 

I genuinely can't believe that anyone believes Wes is a better finisher than Watkins. And I'm not even a big Watkins fan. 

Of the 5, the ones that I have my doubts on are:

the one against Arsenal - I don't see Ollie having the technique to make that finish where he nips in front of Luiz and directs it in

the one against Norwich where the ball drops and the defender and keeper converge on him. There I see Watkins panicking under pressure and ends up taking too many touches, getting half fouled but not enough in it for a penalty in typical Watkins fashion.

the one against Everton, I think Ollie would take a touch and the chance would be gone. If he didn't take a touch he would go for more power and end up not getting it in to the corner enough and Pickford would get a touch on it.

 

However, as you say there are also a lot of Ollie's goals that Wes wouldn't score. For example the one that he scored against Brighton at home this season. But then again comparing who'd miss what chances is a bit pointless because a manager should set up the team accordingly to suit the strengths of the relevant striker and these two are very different players.

 

The sample size is enough minutes (1782 minutes) for fbref to produce a scout report for that 19-20 season so it's good enough for me. Compared to the other forwards in the PL that season and according to that npxG - xG metric Wes is in the 76th percentile (top 24%) for finishing. Ollie is in the 51st percentile so scrapes into the top half for 20-21, and is in the 45th percentile (bottom half) for the season just gone. I actually think that Ollie is the better all-round striker and he will most likely get you more goals but I had my doubts if he is a better finisher even without looking at the stats. That's why I went looking.

Edited June 8, 2022 by sparrow1988

[The Fun Factory]

6 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

Samatta was absolute pony. Thwre is no comparison for me between him and wes. We dont know if wes could have got any better after that big injury.

Samatta was just pants. Period

Still the only Villa player to have scored in open play in  a proper cup final this century.

[Tom13]

1 hour ago, Roitorb said:

I actually think his passing is good and his hold up play looks good in the video. I’m just taking the positives out the negatives as I think if he was actually like that with Courintho  and Bendiua around him he’d actually be pretty affective. Obviously that’s before the injury.

I think it's good as well. He sees the picture, and knows where to play the ball.

[Tom13]

55 minutes ago, sparrow1988 said:

Of the 5, the ones that I have my doubts on are:

the one against Arsenal - I don't see Ollie having the technique to make that finish where he nips in front of Luiz and directs it in

the one against Norwich where the ball drops and the defender and keeper converge on him. There I see Watkins panicking under pressure and ends up taking too many touches, getting half fouled but not enough in it for a penalty in typical Watkins fashion.

the one against Everton, I think Ollie would take a touch and the chance would be gone. If he didn't take a touch he would go for more power and end up not getting it in to the corner enough and Pickford would get a touch on it.

 

However, as you say there are also a lot of Ollie's goals that Wes wouldn't score. For example the one that he scored against Brighton at home this season. But then again comparing who'd miss what chances is a bit pointless because a manager should set up the team accordingly to suit the strengths of the relevant striker and these two are very different players.

 

The sample size is enough minutes (1782 minutes) for fbref to produce a scout report for that 19-20 season so it's good enough for me. Compared to the other forwards in the PL that season and according to that npxG - xG metric Wes is in the 76th percentile (top 24%) for finishing. Ollie is in the 51st percentile so scrapes into the top half for 20-21, and is in the 45th percentile (bottom half) for the season just gone. I actually think that Ollie is the better all-round striker and he will most likely get you more goals but I had my doubts if he is a better finisher even without looking at the stats. That's why I went looking.

Fascinating stats mate, cheers for researching.

Even though Wes had many faults, he did have an air of composure about him in 1-on-1s.

[Villatillidie95]

46 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Still the only Villa player to have scored in open play in  a proper cup final this century.

brilliant diving header it was too!

[DaveAV1]

2 hours ago, sparrow1988 said:

Being better at scoring goals doesn't mean automatically that he is a better finisher.

I thought finishing and scoring goals was pretty much the same thing. 

[sparrow1988]

1 minute ago, DaveAV1 said:

I thought finishing and scoring goals was pretty much the same thing. 

It's a big part, but if you're a fantastic finisher and at the same time terrible at getting into positions to finish you won't score many goals.

[Tom13]

38 minutes ago, DaveAV1 said:

I thought finishing and scoring goals was pretty much the same thing. 

Come on...really?

[Demitri_C]

2 hours ago, The Fun Factory said:

Still the only Villa player to have scored in open play in  a proper cup final this century.

Sama one goal!

[The Fun Factory]

7 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Sama one goal!

That's unfair- he got 2 goals. What's- the-samatta with you?

[HanoiVillan]

9 hours ago, sparrow1988 said:

Statistically he WAS a better finisher. For Wes' one half season in the PL, his actual non-penalty goals scored minus non-penalty xG is better than Watkins over his time in the PL. Now you could argue Watkins gets in to scoring positions more often, partly due to playing style and partly due to playing in a better team, but statistically speaking Wes WAS a better finisher than Watkins.

"actual non-penalty goals scored minus non-penalty xG"

He was absolute pony, and a dreadful finisher. Watkins, who has his limitations, is 10x the player, including being much better at actually scoring goals, whatever this bizarre statistic says.

[Tom13]

10 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

"actual non-penalty goals scored minus non-penalty xG"

He was absolute pony, and a dreadful finisher. Watkins, who has his limitations, is 10x the player, including being much better at actually scoring goals, whatever this bizarre statistic says.

He wasn't a dreadful finisher. You're making yourself look silly by dismissing others in that way.

[DCJonah]

8 minutes ago, Tom13 said:

He wasn't a dreadful finisher. You're making yourself look silly by dismissing others in that way.

If he's genuinely a better finisher than Watkins then he'd play at a decent level. He won't. 

People will just blame the injury rather than the fact he's utter garbage  

[messi11]

If we can get 1 million for him it would be excellent business 

[sparrow1988]

34 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

"actual non-penalty goals scored minus non-penalty xG"

He was absolute pony, and a dreadful finisher. Watkins, who has his limitations, is 10x the player, including being much better at actually scoring goals, whatever this bizarre statistic says.

I was going to type an answer here explaining that it’s the main stat for assessing a strikers finishing ability and is used by most clubs with a decent data setup to assess players. But then I realised that you have about as much interest in that as a dog.  So I just thought what’s the point in putting in that effort for something that just wants to sniff your b****cks and hump your leg?

[HanoiVillan]

1 hour ago, Tom13 said:

He wasn't a dreadful finisher. You're making yourself look silly by dismissing others in that way.

The only thing that's making anybody look sily is the claim that Wesley is even vaguely in the same league as Watkins. He isn't, which is why one is in the midst of what I think is clearly going to be a long career of top-flight football in England, while Wesley isn't. Obviously the injury played a part in that, but if anybody really wants to try to argue that Steven Gerrard would have watched that half-season of Wesley's and thought to himself, yeah, here's a guy I can build a top-flight strikeforce around, then it ain't me that's gonna look silly.

[DaveAV1]

3 hours ago, sparrow1988 said:

It's a big part, but if you're a fantastic finisher and at the same time terrible at getting into positions to finish you won't score many goals.

Ok but you’ll never be a good finisher if you don’t get into the right positions and do you won’t score many goals. The two go hand in hand surely. Most players considered good finishers are strikers that find the positions in the first place. 
 

I can’t think of a good finisher that doesn’t score lots of goals or a player that scores lots of goals but isn’t a good finisher.