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Israel, Palestine and Iran


Swerbs

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44 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

It's not just the BBC, here's Sky doing the same thing:

 

And here is the Guardian’s reporting:

Quote

At least 1,799 Palestinians have been killed in Gaza from Israeli strikes, including 583 children and 351 women, according to Gaza’s health ministry on Friday. Eleven Palestinians were shot and killed in the West Bank by Israeli forces on Friday, the Palestinian health ministry said.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/oct/13/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-news-gaza-palestine-evacuations-military

As always, pick the news outlet which best suits your world view.

 

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52 minutes ago, Xann said:

Cheers, but I'm not on there and it doesn't let me look at the thread.

Don't want to think about it too much.

If Israel gets another surprise bloody nose?

Hamas isn’t a highly sophisticated group, they’ve had a lot of help to put this together (taken a year or so) with training of terrorists by Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, while operational planning was orchestrated by Iran.

There is no chance of Israel getting a bloody nose again -at least in this conflict. Hamas caught them with their pants down and slaughtered 1300 people, for which Netanyahu will rightly be held responsible. The entire state is now mobilised and backstopped by US carrier aviation and cruise missile capability. 

The paradigm has shifted and Israel is now aiming to take apart the network of militias Iran constructed as proxies to hold Israel proper at risk - Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and further afield, other groups in Syria and Iraq. 

Ground ops in Gaza against Hamas will start imminently, and that will likely be the trigger for Hezbollah to attack Israel from Lebanon.

That’s as brief as I can make it. 

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6 minutes ago, Awol said:

Hamas isn’t a highly sophisticated group, they’ve had a lot of help to put this together (taken a year or so) with training of terrorists by Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria, while operational planning was orchestrated by Iran.

There is no chance of Israel getting a bloody nose again -at least in this conflict. Hamas caught them with their pants down and slaughtered 1300 people, for which Netanyahu will rightly be held responsible. The entire state is now mobilised and backstopped by US carrier aviation and cruise missile capability. 

The paradigm has shifted and Israel is now aiming to take apart the network of militias Iran constructed as proxies to hold Israel proper at risk - Hamas, Hezbollah, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and further afield, other groups in Syria and Iraq. 

Ground ops in Gaza against Hamas will start imminently, and that will likely be the trigger for Hezbollah to attack Israel from Lebanon.

That’s as brief as I can make it. 

Agreed on all points. The over the top show of atrocity on 7/10 as well as the prepared propaganda videos Hamas released afterwards and are currently releasing is meant to incite the worst scenario - IDF's imminent Gaza invasion.

The only question remains is at what level Hezbollah and the Iran proxies are willing to commit once this red line of Gaza invasion is crossed. All of these are in concert. The 7/10 attack, the Gaza invasion, US moving their carriers into close support. The tipping point.

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Israeli PM is to hold a news conference shortly.  I expect he is to announce that the ground operations in Gaza have started, expect things to escalate quickly, state that they are doing all it can to avoid civilian casualties but Hamas will be destroyed (or something along those lines). 

 

EDIT: Okay, not quite.  

Edited by trekka
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3 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

“On the straight” being in the eye of the beholder of course.

On the straight meaning requiring evidence of 40 babies being beheaded rather than just relaying what one unverified report said. Or insisting all deliberate civilian deaths are murder regardless of flags and back stories.

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10 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

On the straight meaning requiring evidence of 40 babies being beheaded rather than just relaying what one unverified report said. Or insisting all deliberate civilian deaths are murder regardless of flags and back stories.

There was discussion about the distinction between actively being ‘killed’ and passively ‘dying’. I can understand the reasoning why some media outlets would choose the word ‘killed’ for deliberately targeting a person and the word ‘dying’ for someone who was a collateral death but not the actual target. The acceptable use of language here will depend on your world view. 

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13 minutes ago, DJBOB said:

Agreed on all points. The over the top show of atrocity on 7/10 as well as the prepared propaganda videos Hamas released afterwards and are currently releasing is meant to incite the worst scenario - IDF's imminent Gaza invasion.

The only question remains is at what level Hezbollah and the Iran proxies are willing to commit once this red line of Gaza invasion is crossed. All of these are in concert. The 7/10 attack, the Gaza invasion, US moving their carriers into close support. The tipping point.

Yep, the only unmentioned element is Russia, which moved a geostationary satellite over Israel on the 24h of September, following a two day meeting in Tehran from 22-24th September. Iran lacks the satellite radio-electronic reconnaissance and satellite signal interception capability that Russia can (and imo did) provide. 

Normalisation of relations between Saudi and Israel was very close, and a strategic disaster for Iran and Russia. Getting Israel to invade Gaza is the closest you can get to a guaranteed mechanism to sink that process.

The Palestinians are a tool to be used for Iran and they’re now getting maximum ROI. 

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51 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

And here is the Guardian’s reporting:


https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2023/oct/13/israel-hamas-war-live-updates-news-gaza-palestine-evacuations-military

As always, pick the news outlet which best suits your world view.

 

Isn’t this a bit like if Chindie had said The Sun had lied about something, pointing out that the Independent didn’t so he’s only picking the news outlet that suits his view?

 

A news outlet doing something wrong isn’t balanced out by another new outlet doing something right

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8 minutes ago, Awol said:

Yep, the only unmentioned element is Russia, which moved a geostationary satellite over Israel on the 24h of September, following a two day meeting in Tehran from 22-24th September. Iran lacks the satellite radio-electronic reconnaissance and satellite signal interception capability that Russia can (and imo did) provide. 

Normalisation of relations between Saudi and Israel was very close, and a strategic disaster for Iran and Russia. Getting Israel to invade Gaza is the closest you can get to a guaranteed mechanism to sink that process.

The Palestinians are a tool to be used for Iran and they’re now getting maximum ROI. 

There’s noise coming from SA and the Gulf that they’re partly seeing through the Iranian scheme tho. Here’s to Hezbollah trying and getting totally dismantled, and Iran getting put back in its totalitarian place together with Vlad.

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2 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Isn’t this a bit like if Chindie had said The Sun had lied about something, pointing out that the Independent didn’t so he’s only picking the news outlet that suits his view?

 

A news outlet doing something wrong isn’t balanced out by another new outlet doing something right

‘Right’ and ‘wrong’ is subjective here. 

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3 minutes ago, Stevo985 said:

Isn’t this a bit like if Chindie had said The Sun had lied about something, pointing out that the Independent didn’t so he’s only picking the news outlet that suits his view?

 

A news outlet doing something wrong isn’t balanced out by another new outlet doing something right

I think he's saying it's not wrong depending on your worldview. Which I guess is technically correct, but seems like semantics.

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58 minutes ago, Chindie said:

Others speak like well to do middle class dads ruffling the kids hair and pointing out how stupid they are

Says the man who suggested I can’t be “that dense”.

It’s an emotive and horrifying topic and it’s ok to get fired up about injustice and worse and to be passionate about whichever aspect of it that most repels or stirs anger or sympathy, but enough about my idiocy…

it’d be nice if Tarquin and Amethyst were put to bed and read a story before any more insults are passed around.

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2 minutes ago, blandy said:

Says the man who suggested I can’t be “that dense”.

It’s an emotive and horrifying topic and it’s ok to get fired up about injustice and worse and to be passionate about whichever aspect of it that most repels or stirs anger or sympathy, but enough about my idiocy…

it’d be nice if Tarquin and Amethyst were put to bed and read a story before any more insults are passed around.

Well you did completely misunderstand my position and deride it as 'crap' before mocking a comment about apparent cancellation of commentators by suggesting it was a huge BBC conspiracy, which you pulled out of your arse, so apologies if I bit back a little when I saw the response as demeaning and belittling.

I don't deny this gets me animated. I've spent a long time learning about it. It boils down to a fundamental thing that I care about - fairness. I'm not really enamored by either side on any level, but I don't like things that have such an unfairness and such moral wrongs, which just get waived away.

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2 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

i do wonder what will happen to North Gaza at the end of this - if the Israelis clear out the civilians, install ground troops and effectively occupy it, with a de facto border at the river between it and the rest of Gaza - I can't see them giving it back - at best I can see a divided Gaza that's easier to control and at worst I think they'll just continue to occupy it and make it a part of Israel.

 

I think I’d kinda presumed it would be that from the get-go. It’s just settlement on a larger scale than is normally the case. 

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1 hour ago, Xela said:

Whats the end game for Israel do you think? Complete flattening of Gaza to get to Hamas? Will they go after Hezbollah afterwards, and ultimately Iran?

The same end game it’s been since they landed in the region, expansion and consolidation of land whilst eradicating those already living there.

The attack over the weekend has served to merely speed up Israel’s desired outcome all along. I’m not saying it’s convenient for them, but it’s convenient for them.

 

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