Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Panto_Villan]

2 minutes ago, Awol said:

Bicks is right, unless the west wants to give Erdogan his laundry list of demands. I think we should tell the Russians to attack NATO assets on a humanitarian mission if they dare, and transit a task force into Odesa to get the grain out - avoiding a potential famine for 300 million people. That is probably beyond the risk appetite of self-deterring western leaders, for now at least.

Actually reading on wikipedia what the convention actually says, there's some very strict limits on warships being sent through for any purpose at a time of war (which Turkey have declared is happening). So NATO flat-out can't get a task force through even if it wanted to. I had no idea it was that restricted to be honest.

I guess we could send some unarmed merchant ships through and declare them under NATO protection but anything resembling a warship won't be getting anywhere near Ukraine.

[sidcow]

2 minutes ago, Awol said:

Bicks is right, unless the west wants to give Erdogan his laundry list of demands. I think we should tell the Russians to attack NATO assets on a humanitarian mission if they dare, and transit a task force into Odesa to get the grain out - avoiding a potential famine for 300 million people. That is probably beyond the risk appetite of self-deterring western leaders, for now at least.

There was talk about Egypt maybe making the transits. Africa are going to be the hardest hit by lack of Ukrainian grain. I don't know enough about African politics but maybe some of the more stable African Nations could form a coalition to transport and secure passage. 

[LondonLax]

7 hours ago, ender4 said:

Haven't seen as many videos of Russian stuff being blown up lately. 

I guess that either means that people are bored of the war, or it's going badly for the Ukranians now?

It doesn’t sound like it’s going so well for Ukraine at the moment. They are retreating and giving more and more ground over to the Russians.

 

[bickster]

16 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

Actually reading on wikipedia what the convention actually says, there's some very strict limits on warships being sent through for any purpose at a time of war (which Turkey have declared is happening). So NATO flat-out can't get a task force through even if it wanted to. I had no idea it was that restricted to be honest.

I guess we could send some unarmed merchant ships through and declare them under NATO protection but anything resembling a warship won't be getting anywhere near Ukraine.

It’s also fairly restricting in times of peace. 15 days notice. No more that 3 ships of any country. Specific tonnage limits. Submarines are even more restricted, aircraft carriers pretty much banned etc

[Panto_Villan]

1 minute ago, bickster said:

It’s also fairly restricting in times of peace. 15 days notice. No more that 3 ships of any country. Specific tonnage limits. Submarines are even more restricted, aircraft carriers pretty much banned etc

Indeed, I really hadn't appreciated quite what a strategic advantage it was for Turkey before I read the wiki article. You learn something new every day.

[Awol]

1 hour ago, Panto_Villan said:

Indeed, I really hadn't appreciated quite what a strategic advantage it was for Turkey before I read the wiki article. You learn something new every day.

Which is why I said about meeting Erdogan’s laundry list of demands. He’d let the ships through, for the right price. The alternative is a cascade of disorder across parts of the middle east and Africa as food becomes unavailable or unaffordable.

No easy answers unfortunately. 

[magnkarl]

19 hours ago, LondonLax said:

From the sounds of it the Russians have had a pretty successful week this week and look like they are about to take another major town in Severodonetsk.

Not sure where you are getting this from, but the Pentagon, ISW et all. disagree with you.

The noises coming out of everywhere is that Russia’s attack has culminated.

[desensitized43]

10 hours ago, Awol said:

Bicks is right, unless the west wants to give Erdogan his laundry list of demands. I think we should tell the Russians to attack NATO assets on a humanitarian mission if they dare, and transit a task force into Odesa to get the grain out - avoiding a potential famine for 300 million people. That is probably beyond the risk appetite of self-deterring western leaders, for now at least.

That would seem to be against the strategy that’s been used so far. The west has consistently refused to set any red lines for intervention - bar a nuclear attack, but even then they’re only saying “there would be a response”.

I think we’re all expecting a “Poland moment” where we tell them “if you do x it’s war”…our politicians have shown no appetite at all for that. Whether that’s everyone being very risk averse, the fact that we in the west clearly have a lot to lose in terms of living standards and money in that scenario (anyone have a desire to go back to the days of conscription and rationing?), the political consequences or just pure cowardice. I don’t know.

Personally I do feel we need to be clear where the line is if only to be true to our own principles of what is acceptable.

[LondonLax]

30 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Not sure where you are getting this from, but the Pentagon, ISW et all. disagree with you.

The noises coming out of everywhere is that Russia’s attack has culminated.

It’s pretty widely reported and doesn’t seem that controversial to say? Zelensky has called it a ‘genocide’.

Quote

Moscow’s forces have advanced in a fierce ground and artillery assault, and they now appear close to encircling the last two holdout cities in Luhansk province. Luhansk and neighboring Donetsk form the Donbas region, which has become the key focus of the Kremlin’s war.

As Ukrainian officials voice concern that their troops are now outmanned and outgunned, the Russian push could prove decisive in the conflict.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/russia-gains-donbas-encircling-luhansk-severodonetsk-lysyschansk-rcna30615
 

Quote

Officials in Ukraine have admitted that Russia has the “upper hand” in fighting in the country’s east, as Ukrainian forces fell back from some of their positions in the Donbas region. 

Amid reports that Lyman, the site of an important railway junction, had largely been taken by Russian forces, Ukraine’s general staff reported that Russian forces were also advancing on Sievierodonetsk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka. 

The governor of Luhansk region, Serhiy Haidai, said just 5% of the region now remained in Ukrainian hands – down from about 10% little more than a week ago – and that Ukrainian forces were retreating in some areas.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/26/ukraine-burying-civilians-mass-graves-russia-advances

[Panto_Villan]

46 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Not sure where you are getting this from, but the Pentagon, ISW et all. disagree with you.

The noises coming out of everywhere is that Russia’s attack has culminated.

I mean the recent update seems to disagree. Russians making progress in the Donbas, albeit slow progress, Ukraine making no further progress around Kharkiv.

That’s been the situation for the last 3-4 days. Whether it’s a blip or a sign of something greater is up for discussion but the Russians are certainly the ones taking ground right now.

Source: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-26

High level summary “Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past several days, though Ukrainian defenses remain effective overall”

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

Russians making progress in the Donbas, albeit slow progress, Ukraine making no further progress around Kharkiv.

So the Russians are making slow progress in a region that they held about 70% of before the war started

And tbh there isn't a lot of progress to be made around Kharkiv. The Russians are in small pockets near the border, the job is almost done there but progressing eastwards will require more troops as what they have will be needed to secure the border

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

The Oil and Gas will be the most important things long term,  even more than gains on the ground eventually.

If the EU can get a grip and turn it off then Russia are finished.  They will not be able to carry on as they have been.

They might have new customers for the Oil and think they can survive,  they can't.  The one thing they cannot do for decades to come is actually deliver the oil to new partners.

It is impossible to get it there.  Totally impossible and not viable from a physical point of view (How) & the most important thing,  the method of travel for the oil.   It can't move into International waters without insurance.  This combined with the 100 or so ships required a day.  Not going to happen.  Also,  they have to sell it.  Can't be stored and it can not be turned off at the pump.  Apart from those little bumps,  Russia have zero problems.  (Its a 30-40 day boat ride each way as far as I know also,  with a few ships here and there.  Their skills at shipping and underwater activities are well known,  It will all go wrong and the environment will suffer.)  If someone could turn the oil / gas pipes off in the EU then we are almost done with it all.

[Panto_Villan]

15 minutes ago, bickster said:

So the Russians are making slow progress in a region that they held about 70% of before the war started

And tbh there isn't a lot of progress to be made around Kharkiv. The Russians are in small pockets near the border, the job is almost done there but progressing eastwards will require more troops as what they have will be needed to secure the border

That doesn’t really change the facts though. The prior assumptions were that the Kharkiv front for the Russians was collapsing, and they had culminated in the Donbas.

Instead Russia reinforced north of Kharkiv and the Ukrainians couldn’t push them back over the border, let alone threaten the Russian supply lines in the east, and new attacks in the Donbas continue to take towns and villages from Ukraine.

Sure, you can argue about the overall  strategic significance of that but you can’t deny the Russians are the ones taking ground at the moment, which some people seem to be doing.

I think we’ll need to wait another week or two to see trends emerge fully, but if the present situation continues it won’t bode well for Ukraine.

[Awol]

18 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

That doesn’t really change the facts though. The prior assumptions were that the Kharkiv front for the Russians was collapsing, and they had culminated in the Donbas.

Instead Russia reinforced north of Kharkiv and the Ukrainians couldn’t push them back over the border, let alone threaten the Russian supply lines in the east, and new attacks in the Donbas continue to take towns and villages from Ukraine.

Sure, you can argue about the overall  strategic significance of that but you can’t deny the Russians are the ones taking ground at the moment, which some people seem to be doing.

I think we’ll need to wait another week or two to see trends emerge fully, but if the present situation continues it won’t bode well for Ukraine.

The Russians have prevented themselves being pushed right out of the country north of Kharkiv by committing some of the strategic reserve held around Belgorod, so that’s now unavailable for the Donbas fight. 

The important thing to remember is that land doesn’t fight, armies do. By conducting a holding action in Donbas the UAF is achieving the heavy attrition of the bulk of Russia’s combat forces, while giving the reserve forces time to be trained and constituted into new Brigades in the west. 

Ukraine will get one big chance at a strategic counter offensive and they have to get it right, so every extra day of preparation counts. The army in the east is buying that time with blood, and Russia’s possession or otherwise of an extra pile of rubble isn’t strategically important overall. 

The maps in the tweet below show how reduced Russian offensive ambitions have become Vs their objectives only a month ago. Russia is throwing everything into this one tiny area of Ukraine and they will probably take it eventually at heavy cost. Then the initiative will then shift to Ukraine, which is why equipping for them for that moment is so vital now.

 

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, Panto_Villan said:

I mean the recent update seems to disagree. Russians making progress in the Donbas, albeit slow progress, Ukraine making no further progress around Kharkiv.

That’s been the situation for the last 3-4 days. Whether it’s a blip or a sign of something greater is up for discussion but the Russians are certainly the ones taking ground right now.

Source: https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-26

High level summary “Russian forces have made steady, incremental gains in heavy fighting in eastern Ukraine in the past several days, though Ukrainian defenses remain effective overall”

Again, Russia is making 'slow' progress against an enemy which is strategically withdrawing when what they're holding is no longer of value to hold. There's no 'gains' in areas where Ukraine is actually deciding to hold, it's just that there's absolutely no reason to bleed themselves dry over a village - i.e. Popasna - which is a pile of rubble.

Meanwhile Russia is recruiting heavily from the poor rural areas of Eastern Russia, committing T-64's and having to defend Belgorod before Ukraine commits their new brigades (600k soldiers) currently training in the West.

Edited May 27, 2022 by magnkarl

[LondonLax]

It sounds like moral is not good amongst the Ukrainian troops there at the moment.

Quote

Ukrainian leaders have projected and nurtured a public image of military invulnerability — of their volunteer and professional forces triumphantly standing up to the Russian onslaught. Videos of assaults on Russian tanks or positions are posted daily on social media. 

But the experience of Lapko and his group of volunteers offers a rare and more realistic portrait of the conflict and Ukraine’s struggle to halt the Russian advance in parts of Donbas. Ukraine, like Russia, has provided scant information about deaths, injuries or losses of military equipment. But after three months of war, this company of 120 men is down to 54 because of deaths, injuries and desertions.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/ukraine-frontline-russia-military-severodonetsk/

[Awol]

2 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

It sounds like moral is not good amongst the Ukrainian troops there at the moment.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/05/26/ukraine-frontline-russia-military-severodonetsk/

Getting shelled to s*** every day will do that to you.

[bickster]

A company of 120 down to 54 isn't that much of a surprise. They've been facing and wiping out multiple BTG's of 800 - 1000 men. And a rather large amount of those BTG have been made combat ineffective and then reconstituted into new ones and the then made ineffective again. It's a war of attrition and the attrition is still heavily on the Russian side

[The Fun Factory]

Ukraine is going to end up losing land to Russia. The west may moan about it but I doubt they will do much more than what they are doing now.  Whether that will be worth it for Russia in gaining mostly destroyed land, expanding NATO, and ruining their economy- you would have to say no it wouldn't.

[Panto_Villan]

35 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

Again, Russia is making 'slow' progress against an enemy which is strategically withdrawing when what they're holding is no longer of value to hold. There's no 'gains' in areas where Ukraine is actually deciding to hold, it's just that there's absolutely no reason to bleed themselves dry over a village - i.e. Popasna - which is a pile of rubble.

Meanwhile Russia is recruiting heavily from the poor rural areas of Eastern Russia, committing T-64's and having to defend Belgorod before Ukraine commits their new brigades (600k soldiers) currently training in the West.

You're shifting your argument. Someone pointed out that Russia had taken a fair bit of ground this week, and you claimed they were wrong and actually they had culminated. They clearly have not. They're steadily pushing the Ukrainians back in the areas they've heavily committed troops. The Ukrainians would happily hold those piles of rubble if they thought they could safely do so, but they don't and so they're ceding territory. Therefore you're incorrect to tell LondonLax above that the Russians hadn't had a good week and their attacks had already culminated.

Sure, there's still plenty of readings that the war favours the Ukrainians overall. But you could also point out that despite the massive losses already inflicted on the Russians and all the Western hardware we've sent over, they're continuing to take territory from the Ukrainians. The Ukrainians have had to stop all counter-offensives to focus on defending the Donbas and yet they're still losing territory. They haven't been able to push the Russians out of the area above Kharkiv, there's been absolutely no progress towards reclaiming Kherson, Mauripol has fallen and the Donbas is slowly falling to the Russians. Zelensky et al are sounding a lot less optimistic than they were a couple of weeks ago.

Perhaps the tsunami of NATO weapons and fresh troops is going to decisively turn the war in the favour of the Ukrainians and allow them to reclaim their territory in the coming weeks - although we've been hearing that for a while. Alternatively, perhaps the Ukrainians are going to find that large-scale counter-attacks against an enemy with greater air power is going to be extremely difficult and perhaps impossible, especially now they've had time to dig in. And then the Russians will end up keeping a chunk of Ukraine when the war is over.

Personally I think the war does still favour Ukraine in the longer term but I think the events of this week are still a handy dose of realism. The Russians certainly aren't beaten yet, and this war isn't going to be one-way traffic.

Edited May 27, 2022 by Panto_Villan