Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Awol]

I know we steer away from combat footage normally, but this is pretty intense - no blood, visible death etc. interesting accents too..

 

[bickster]

10 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

You're shifting your argument

He's not, he's been quite consistent in what he's saying from my reading. And Ukraine has lost a very small amount of land, not a large amount or "a fair bit of ground", a small meaningless pile of rubble is what they've tactically withdrawn from and it is a tactical withdrawal

[bickster]

14 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

The Ukrainians have had to stop all counter-offensives to focus on defending the Donbas

The counter offensives were all in the Kharkiv region or to a lesser extent Kherson. The Counter offensive in Kharkhv is over because there's little left to counter but as AWOL pointed out, they are still tying up reserve troops from the Belgogrod region of Russia. I haven't looked at Kherson recently but nothing seems to have changed much there

[avfc1982am]

I think it's widely known that the main Ukrainians counter offensive wont be ready until early July with the main push back anticipated in August. 

[blandy]

link

Quote

officials in Ukraine earlier admitted that Russia has the “upper hand” in fighting in the country’s east, as Ukrainian forces fell back from some of their positions in the Donbas region.

Amid reports that Lyman, the site of an important railway junction, had largely been taken by Russian forces, Ukraine’s general staff reported that Russian forces were also advancing on Sievierodonetsk, Bakhmut and Avdiivka.

The governor of Luhansk region, Serhiy Haidai, said just 5% of the region remained in Ukrainian hands – down from about 10% little more than a week ago – and that Ukrainian forces were retreating in some areas.

“It is clear that our boys are slowly retreating to more fortified positions – we need to hold back this horde,” Haidai said. Hinting at further withdrawals, he said it was possible that troops would leave “one settlement, maybe two. We need to win the war, not the battle.”

Separately, a senior Ukrainian military official conceded at a briefing on Thursday that Russia had the upper hand in fighting in Luhansk. “Russia has the advantage, but we are doing everything we can,” Gen Oleksiy Gromov said.

If confirmed, Russia’s continuing advances in Lyman, which has been contested for a month, would make it easier for Russian forces to isolate the key city of Sievierodonetsk, which has been under relentless shelling for days.

 

[avfc1982am]

Until then counter starts I would expect Ukrainian forces to be holding onto whatever they can with their finger tips. Most definitely having to give up areas of the Donbas where 90% of Russian troops are. It's going to look a lot worse over the coming weeks before it starts to look better. This happens in every war and I don't see it being any different here. 

[Panto_Villan]

8 minutes ago, bickster said:

He's not, he's been quite consistent in what he's saying from my reading. And Ukraine has lost a very small amount of land, not a large amount or "a fair bit of ground", a small meaningless pile of rubble is what they've tactically withdrawn from and it is a tactical withdrawal

I don't see how the Russians can still be taking territory if their attacks have apparently culminated? Either they still have sufficient combat power to force Ukraine to retreat or they don't. Clearly they do.

[avfc1982am]

11 minutes ago, Awol said:

I know we steer away from combat footage normally, but this is pretty intense - no blood, visible death etc. interesting accents too..

 

Intense. Looks like they needed to bug out quick and get back to low ground....Not sure they could hit the vehicle quick enough

[avfc1982am]

I like this guy. Very honest about Russian offences and Ukrainian loses even though he's Ukrainian. 

 

[avfc1982am]

 

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

 

Didn't watch it but that's an ex-General. He was Wagner Group, he resigned from the military when he took a fighter for a joy ride and crashed it. He was about to be sentenced to 5 years in Prison but he joined the Wagner Group as a way to avoid prison. IIRC he was also over 60 years old

[avfc1982am]

5 minutes ago, bickster said:

Didn't watch it but that's an ex-General. He was Wagner Group, he resigned from the military when he took a fighter for a joy ride and crashed it. He was about to be sentenced to 5 years in Prison but he joined the Wagner Group as a way to avoid prison. IIRC he was also over 60 years old

Correct. Resigned to the airforce and now destroyed like his aircraft over Luhansk by stinger. Ouch!

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, Panto_Villan said:

I don't see how the Russians can still be taking territory if their attacks have apparently culminated? Either they still have sufficient combat power to force Ukraine to retreat or they don't. Clearly they do.

You can call it 'taking territory', but in reality it's more like a slow tactical retreat by the Ukrainians. There is absolutely no need for Ukraine to be losing a big part of their professional army over a town full of rubble. The picture is fairly clear that they're holding for as long as it is feasible, then retreating to well prepped secondary lines at night as Russia has very little night fighting capability. It's NATO tactics that works wonders against an army that likes to expend their equipment and men like toy soldiers. 

NLAW's, Javelins and other Western anti-tank weapons are largely effective against Russian advances, which is why retreating and allowing Russia to extent their attacking lines is the only valid play for Ukraine. 

[avfc1982am]

2 hours ago, Awol said:

I know we steer away from combat footage normally, but this is pretty intense - no blood, visible death etc. interesting accents too..

 

Here is the finale of that attack via drone. They took it out in the end....

 

[Awol]

1 hour ago, magnkarl said:

NLAW's, Javelins and other Western anti-tank weapons are largely effective against Russian advances, which is why retreating and allowing Russia to extent their attacking lines is the only valid play for Ukraine. 

True to an extent but it’s much more about artillery, where Russia has huge overmatch in raw numbers of tubes and volumes of ammunition. 

For several years prior to the second invasion in Feb, Ukraines ammunition storage facilities were randomly blowing up. They contained most of their stocks of 152mm ammunition which is the calibre used by their legacy Russian artillery systems.

It now seems likely in hindsight that they weren’t the result of negligence, poor storage etc. but long term preparations being carried out by the Russian state. That’s why getting them as many NATO calibre 155mm systems and the ammo to use with them is so important now.

Hopefully the US will soon stop dithering and commit to sending HIMARS in volume which would help Ukraine significantly. 

[avfc1982am]

5 hours ago, avfc1982am said:

Here is the finale of that attack via drone. They took it out in the end....

 

Just to add to this.....Son of UK MP and ex Marine is the British guy in the clip...

Son of British MP fighting in Ukraine destroys Russian armoured vehicle alongside team of volunteer soldiers (msn.com)

Quote

 

A former Royal Marine and son of an MP has been filmed leading a team of British and US veterans in a mission to destroy a Russian armoured vehicle during a fierce battle in Ukraine.

Ben Grant, 30, the son of Helen Grant, Conservative MP for Maidstone and The Weald, is among a platoon of foreign fighters supporting Ukraine’s efforts in the war against Russia.

i has verified footage that shows the squad of Western volunteers, made up of former special forces, preparing to mount their attack on a BTR – Russian armoured vehicle – from a forest in the Kharkhiv region in north eastern Ukraine. It was filmed during a 15-hour operation on Thursday in which i understands that around eight Russian soldiers were killed, with a further 30 Russian troops killed in a firefight when the team of 13 US and British fighters later linked up with Ukrainian fighters to storm a Russian trench. ...

 

 

 

 

[Panto_Villan]

2 hours ago, magnkarl said:

You can call it 'taking territory', but in reality it's more like a slow tactical retreat by the Ukrainians. There is absolutely no need for Ukraine to be losing a big part of their professional army over a town full of rubble. The picture is fairly clear that they're holding for as long as it is feasible, then retreating to well prepped secondary lines at night as Russia has very little night fighting capability. It's NATO tactics that works wonders against an army that likes to expend their equipment and men like toy soldiers. 

NLAW's, Javelins and other Western anti-tank weapons are largely effective against Russian advances, which is why retreating and allowing Russia to extent their attacking lines is the only valid play for Ukraine. 

What you've described is just "taking territory" though, no? The Russians made a tactical retreat around Kiev but it still resulted in Ukraine retaking all that territory, which was a victory for Ukraine. The fact of the matter is Ukraine would ideally prefer not to have vacated that territory in the Donbass but has chosen to because they feel like trying to hold it in the face of a Russian advance would cause them unacceptable casualties. That's a victory for Russia.

Sure, it's perfectly valid to suggest that maybe the territory being taken is not particularly large or consequential and that the Russians are paying far more in blood for every mile taken than the Ukrainians are. Personally I'm not as convinced about that as I was a week ago (particularly regarding the Russians taking more casualties than the Ukrainians right now). The counter-narrative is that the Ukrainians are holding towns and villages while they are pounded into rubble by overwhelming Russian artillery, and are pretty much shattered when the Russians move in and are thus forced to retreat to new defensive lines. Then process repeats and the losses continue.

Given that Zelensky is complaining about high casulaties and the Ukrainians are going backwards, the alternate scenario (or some combination of the two) seems equally plausible. It suggests a few cracks have appeared in the Ukrainian war effort and I'm not yet sure how significant they are. It could be a portent of a new phase of the war, or it could signal absolutely nothing and we'll see the Russian attacks burn out and another major Russian disaster unfold. But I'm watching with a bit of concern at the moment and I'm surprised anyone can look at current events and think things are unfolding completely to plan.

Incidentally, in the Donbas it seems like a lot of the assaults are happening at night and the Russians locally actually have better night fighting capabilities than the Ukranians do. It's another example of how the situation is perhaps more complex than initially imagined, whether it be because the Russians are adapting their tactics or because the Ukrainian special forces are busy around Kharkiv and their Donbas troops are less well equipped. 

[Delphinho123]

1 hour ago, avfc1982am said:

Just to add to this.....Son of UK MP and ex Marine is the British guy in the clip...

Son of British MP fighting in Ukraine destroys Russian armoured vehicle alongside team of volunteer soldiers (msn.com)

A former Royal Marine and son of an MP has been filmed leading a team of British and US veterans in a mission to destroy a Russian armoured vehicle during a fierce battle in Ukraine.

 

Ben Grant, 30, the son of Helen Grant, Conservative MP for Maidstone and The Weald, is among a platoon of foreign fighters supporting Ukraine’s efforts in the war against Russia.

i has verified footage that shows the squad of Western volunteers, made up of former special forces, preparing to mount their attack on a BTR – Russian armoured vehicle – from a forest in the Kharkhiv region in north eastern Ukraine. It was filmed during a 15-hour operation on Thursday in which i understands that around eight Russian soldiers were killed, with a further 30 Russian troops killed in a firefight when the team of 13 US and British fighters later linked up with Ukrainian fighters to storm a Russian trench. During the daring mission, a fighter emerges from the woodland and aims the shoulder-held Matador missile at the vehicle, which is seen in a clearing about 100 metres away. Mr Grant, who spent more than five years as a commando in the Royal Marines, is heard shouting “shoot it now” and “mind the back blast”, before the missile is launched. Another fighter is heard shouting “it’s facing towards us” and to “pull back” as a fierce gun battle erupts.  Drone footage shows the Russian tank being blown up during the operation, which saw the British and US team supported by 14 Ukrainian fighters. In a separate operation a couple of weeks earlier Mr Grant’s team dragged a fellow British fighter to safety after he suffered a serious leg injury when a mine was detonated from a Russian trench the men were attacking. i understands that the British man is now recovering in a hospital in Kyiv after being injured in the assault in woodland as they tried to attack Russian forces in a village. Dozens of British volunteers have travelled to Ukraine to fight against Vladimir Putin’s men. In March, Mr Grant was pictured at Lviv train station with other ex-British servicemen who had volunteered to fight invading Russian forces, but revealed he had not informed his mother, who is Boris Johnson’s special envoy on girls’ education. He said he chose to travel to Ukraine after seeing footage of Russian bombing of a house where a child could be heard screaming, At the time, Mr Grant said: “I thought, I am a father of three, and if that was my kids I know what I would do, I would go and fight. “Then I thought I would want another load of people who might be skilled enough to help me come and help me, come and help me, save my family,” he told the Guardian “I just wanna make that clear, completely off my own back, I decided to do this. I didn’t even tell my mum, but it is what it is.” Armed forces minister James Heappey has previously said British nationals should not go to Ukraine to fight.

 

 

There are some brave, brave people in this world. 

[blandy]

2 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

It suggests a few cracks have appeared in the Ukrainian war effort and I'm not yet sure how significant they are. It could be a portent of a new phase of the war, or it could signal absolutely nothing and we'll see the Russian attacks burn out and another major Russian disaster unfold. But I'm watching with a bit of concern at the moment and I'm surprised anyone can look at current events and think things are unfolding completely to plan.

I agree. Reading reports from journo's on the ground, and their interviews with troops, the theme seems to be common - that they are under-armed compared to what they need to defeat the Russians, that they are getting severely battered and taking significant casualties in quite a few places. They are having some victories, but overall it's a case of desperately, bravely, trying to hang on, rather than anything else.

[avfc1982am]

46 minutes ago, blandy said:

I agree. Reading reports from journo's on the ground, and their interviews with troops, the theme seems to be common - that they are under-armed compared to what they need to defeat the Russians, that they are getting severely battered and taking significant casualties in quite a few places. They are having some victories, but overall it's a case of desperately, bravely, trying to hang on, rather than anything else.

I think it's a matter of time before the Russians completely occupy the Donbas. But he lies the issue. Can they hold this region indefinitely. I really don't see it unless Ukraine concede the territory and then if they don't, continually keeping these regions armed defensively is a big ask. 

Edited May 27, 2022 by avfc1982am