Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[LondonLax]

13 hours ago, bickster said:

Which large parts of the country are these? This just isn't true. Russia is in control of far less of Ukraine than it was two months ago, even just in the Eastern Axis. Before this even started they were already in control of Crimea and large parts of Luhansk and Donbas, those aren't gains from this war

They used to control a big chunk on the Northern Border up to and beyond Sumy, they are currently being pushed back across the border from Kharkiv and then to the west towards Donbas too

They haven't advanced on any of the other fronts for the best part of a month.

Any gains Russia makes are usually very small and temporary, the direction of travel has been backwards for quite some time

Even the BBC says otherwise.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

Quote

Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February, but Ukrainian forces retook large areas around Kyiv in early April after Russia abandoned its push towards the capital.

Following the withdrawal from the north of Ukraine, Russia has refocused its efforts on taking control of the east and south of the country

 

[Brumerican]

Just now, LondonLax said:

Even the BBC says otherwise.

When the people behind "Jim'll Fix IT" say something you know it's legit.

[avfc1982am]

5 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Even the BBC says otherwise.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

 

What that report doesn't tell you is that Russians are going to encounter similar issues around Severdonetsk as around Kyiv as the Ukrainians are serious dug in and still hold the region west of the City and the City. They can continually resupply unless Russian forces can cut them off. Even then they're open to counter attack from the rear.

It's also worth noting that giving ground in certain areas allows the Ukrainians to clean out the north around Kharkiv before pushing east and cutting off the Russian supply line from Belgorod. Once they've achieved this Russia will be in deep shit. That allows the majority of forces to be freed up for heavier support and a push down into the Donbas, potentially tightening a noose around Russian forces. 

It looks like Russia hold a lot of ground on the map but most of it is open countryside and also quite precarious as they're open to artillery whichever way they advance. 

 

[LondonLax]

23 minutes ago, Brumerican said:

When the people behind "Jim'll Fix IT" say something you know it's legit.

Yeah, I don’t use the BBC for war updates but even they are reporting the Russian advances. It sounds like things are not going very well for Ukraine around Severodonetsk and Popansa and Zelensky has been in the news saying as much. The US lend lease money can’t come quick enough.

Edited May 20, 2022 by LondonLax

[LondonLax]

11 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

What that report doesn't tell you is that Russians are going to encounter similar issues around Severdonetsk as around Kyiv as the Ukrainians are serious dug in and still hold the region west of the City and the City. They can continually resupply unless Russian forces can cut them off. Even then they're open to counter attack from the rear.

It's also worth noting that giving ground in certain areas allows the Ukrainians to clean out the north around Kharkiv before pushing east and cutting off the Russian supply line from Belgorod. Once they've achieved this Russia will be in deep shit. That allows the majority of forces to be freed up for heavier support and a push down into the Donbas, potentially tightening a noose around Russian forces. 

It looks like Russia hold a lot of ground on the map but most of it is open countryside and also quite precarious as they're open to artillery whichever way they advance. 

 

I read this today that suggested the Russian tactics had changed recently and they were becoming more effective, giving up on the idea of ‘liberating villages’ and just returning to their doctrine of besieging them instead. It also sounds like there has been a Russian counterattack from Belgorod, retaking lands around Kharkiv.

Quote

The Russian military doctrine emphasises bypassing urban areas while on advance: if defended, these are to be isolated by foremost units (‘first echelon’) and then invested by troops of the ‘second echelon’. With other words: outflanked and besieged, if necessary, but not assaulted by advancing units.

So far in this war, we’ve seen next to nothing of this. On the contrary, the Russians are all the time rushing to capture every village and town, regardless how minor, and regardless of losses. Nominally, at least, this was ‘logical’, considering Putin’s illusions about Ukrainians not being keen to fight, and the RFA receiving the order to bring as much of Ukraine under control within the shortest possible period of time, while all the time operating at the end of critically thin supply links. With other words: it needed roads to keep its troops supplied. And, well, roads are usually connecting urban areas: nobody is constructing them from nowhere to nowhere…

Unsurprisingly, the Ukrainian tactics was to convert every place into a ‘fortress’: entrench where buildings are providing additional protection — and defend. With the RFA violating its own doctrine so often, it’s even less surprising this caused it shameful failures and catastrophic losses as we’ve seen, for example, in the area north-west of Kyiv, in Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Izium, not to talk about Severodonetsk, Popasna, and especially in Rubizhne (this time I’m talking about Rubizhne north of Severodonetsk).

Well, after all of this, somebody there in Moscow came to his senses, and the RFA is now back to its original tactics — apparently with quite some success.

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-19-20-may-2022-58432b03f40

Edited May 20, 2022 by LondonLax

[Brumerican]

Just now, LondonLax said:

Yeah, I don’t use the BBC for war updates 

You just did   I'm just messing FWIW .

I'm not that fussed about this localised quarrel in the quantum field to be honest .   It all ends the same way as every other cycle .

As much fun as it is to laugh at Russia's ineptitude I think the real gnarly stuff is still to come . 

Yes the film "Everything , Everywhere , All At Once" may be lingering in the psyche.

[Awol]

13 hours ago, LondonLax said:

It sounds like things are not going very well for Ukraine around Severodonetsk and Popansa and Zelensky has been in the news saying as much. The US lend lease money can’t come quick enough.

The Ukrainians are struggling around Popasna. In the coming days Russia may create a pocket of them centred on the twin cities of Sievierodontesk and Lysychansk, but as @avfc1982am says taking that will be a hugely costly operation, soaking up the remaining offensive combat power of the Russian army in Ukraine. Even if those cities did fall eventually Russia would still not have captured the whole Donbas region.

The key thing is that Ukrainian forces in the east (the pre-war regular army called the Joint Force Operation - ‘JFO’) are fighting a holding action, trading ground for maximum Russian loses.

In the west of Ukraine 650,000 men with previous combat experience in the Donbas since 2016 are being trained and formed into new Brigades for the strategic counter-offensive.

The regulars are buying time for that process and have suffered heavy loses doing so, but at the macro level the Russian army is goosed unless Putin orders a full mobilization - and then he’s goosed. 

[magnkarl]

16 hours ago, LondonLax said:

I read this today that suggested the Russian tactics had changed recently and they were becoming more effective, giving up on the idea of ‘liberating villages’ and just returning to their doctrine of besieging them instead. It also sounds like there has been a Russian counterattack from Belgorod, retaking lands around Kharkiv.

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/ukraine-war-19-20-may-2022-58432b03f40

The aim for Ukraine is not to beat Russia back here though, they’re trading Russian troops and gear for fields with nothing in them. Meanwhile Ukraine has mobilised more brigades than Russia has active soldiers, trained with NATO weapons and in NATO/Israeli tactics. These haven’t been deployed yet. 

Ukraine’s prewar professional army is essentially holding Russia in the East alone. What do you think happens when the actual reinforcements start pushing at Russia’s flanks?

Edit: what @Awol said.

Edited May 21, 2022 by magnkarl

[LondonLax]

50 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

The aim for Ukraine is not to beat Russia back here though, they’re trading Russian troops and gear for fields with nothing in them. Meanwhile Ukraine has mobilised more brigades than Russia has active soldiers, trained with NATO weapons and in NATO/Israeli tactics. These haven’t been deployed yet. 

Ukraine’s prewar professional army is essentially holding Russia in the East alone. What do you think happens when the actual reinforcements start pushing at Russia’s flanks?

Edit: what @Awol said.

I don’t disagree, Ukraine are using every advantage they have and Russia supposedly will not have the volume of troops required to conquer and hold territory long term.

I was initially responding to a comment about how useless the Russian army is and from reading on here and in many places on the net you’d be forgiven thinking the Russians are blundering around eastern Ukraine with Benny Hill music playing in the background.

However it’s not the case, they are still very dangerous.

They have been killing and capturing Ukrainian soldiers, destroying Ukrainian equipment and forcing Ukrainian’s back in places. It sounds like quite a bloody battle with two evenly matched armies for the large part.

I saw a video recently showing a bunch of Poland’s recently donated T-72 tanks that the Russians have taken out. However in the west we are privy to a lot more of the Ukrainian propaganda showing Ukrainian successes. The Russian successes are typically shown on Telegram and in Russian. None of it gets posted on here, so from our viewpoint it’s easy so get a false impression. We may even start wondering why Ukraine hasn’t kicked the Russians out and retaken Crimea by now.

 

[avfc1982am]

44 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

I don’t disagree, Ukraine are using every advantage they have and Russia supposedly will not have the volume of troops required to conquer and hold territory long term.

I was initially responding to a comment about how useless the Russian army is and from reading on here and in many places on the net you’d be forgiven thinking the Russians are blundering around eastern Ukraine with Benny Hill music playing in the background.

However it’s not the case, they are still very dangerous.

They have been killing and capturing Ukrainian soldiers, destroying Ukrainian equipment and forcing Ukrainian’s back in places. It sounds like quite a bloody battle with two evenly matched armies for the large part.

I saw a video recently showing a bunch of Poland’s recently donated T-72 tanks that the Russians have taken out. However in the west we are privy to a lot more of the Ukrainian propaganda showing Ukrainian successes. The Russian successes are typically shown on Telegram and in Russian. None of it gets posted on here, so from our viewpoint it’s easy so get a false impression. We may even start wondering why Ukraine hasn’t kicked the Russians out and retaken Crimea by now.

 

I think you actually raise some good points especially regarding most of western media reporting and bias that comes with it. It's worth remembering though that as others have said, Ukraine are holding Russia with basically the forces they started the defence with 3 months ago, albeit with citizens in the mix. Russia meanwhile are trying to take from one area and reinforce others, every soldier is already in the mix, and a such they're becoming more and more entrenched without respite. Ukraine still have the majority of, not only advanced weapon systems , but newly trained personnel to throw into this war.

It may take several months or longer, but I do not see how Russia can hold what they currently occupy.  think Ukrainians understand this most of all. The trade for land now will enable for a more concerted push further down the line when Russian systems are being eliminated and troops are waning. They've literally obliterated the land they expect to hold, unsettled and turned most of the population they expected to support them, thus isolating themselves and making it near impossible to ever be able to rebuild and repopulate these areas in peace. "It's okay everyone, we've killed your families but you can come back now and thank us". It's just not happening. 

Take Kherson as an example, most definitely a huge Russian population completely and utterly disgusted with Russian aggression. There is zero chance the population wont turn on the Russians once Ukrainian forces start to advance on the City, and they will eventually. Just like every other war ever fought, the civilians that the aggressors decided to bomb, murder and displace will never forgive. It may take a long time yet but the reprisals will come and every Russian Soldier, politician and anti Ukrainian will feel the retribution and vengeance from those they've inflicted with their evil.  

[LondonLax]

35 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I think you actually raise some good points especially regarding most of western media reporting and bias that comes with it. It's worth remembering though that as others have said, Ukraine are holding Russia with basically the forces they started the defence with 3 months ago, albeit with citizens in the mix. Russia meanwhile are trying to take from one area and reinforce others, every soldier is already in the mix, and a such they're becoming more and more entrenched without respite. Ukraine still have the majority of, not only advanced weapon systems , but newly trained personnel to throw into this war.

It may take several months or longer, but I do not see how Russia can hold what they currently occupy.  think Ukrainians understand this most of all. The trade for land now will enable for a more concerted push further down the line when Russian systems are being eliminated and troops are waning. They've literally obliterated the land they expect to hold, unsettled and turned most of the population they expected to support them, thus isolating themselves and making it near impossible to ever be able to rebuild and repopulate these areas in peace. "It's okay everyone, we've killed your families but you can come back now and thank us". It's just not happening. 

Take Kherson as an example, most definitely a huge Russian population completely and utterly disgusted with Russian aggression. There is zero chance the population wont turn on the Russians once Ukrainian forces start to advance on the City, and they will eventually. Just like every other war ever fought, the civilians that the aggressors decided to bomb, murder and displace will never forgive. It may take a long time yet but the reprisals will come and every Russian Soldier, politician and anti Ukrainian will feel the retribution and vengeance from those they've inflicted with their evil.  

Yeah definitely. The Russians are going to have a tough time winning ‘hearts and minds’ as George W would say. 

[magnkarl]

5 hours ago, LondonLax said:

I don’t disagree, Ukraine are using every advantage they have and Russia supposedly will not have the volume of troops required to conquer and hold territory long term.

I was initially responding to a comment about how useless the Russian army is and from reading on here and in many places on the net you’d be forgiven thinking the Russians are blundering around eastern Ukraine with Benny Hill music playing in the background.

However it’s not the case, they are still very dangerous.

They have been killing and capturing Ukrainian soldiers, destroying Ukrainian equipment and forcing Ukrainian’s back in places. It sounds like quite a bloody battle with two evenly matched armies for the large part.

I saw a video recently showing a bunch of Poland’s recently donated T-72 tanks that the Russians have taken out. However in the west we are privy to a lot more of the Ukrainian propaganda showing Ukrainian successes. The Russian successes are typically shown on Telegram and in Russian. None of it gets posted on here, so from our viewpoint it’s easy so get a false impression. We may even start wondering why Ukraine hasn’t kicked the Russians out and retaken Crimea by now.

 

I don’t disagree, though I wouldn’t call a video of a Ukrainian tb2 taking out a t90 propaganda. It’s just a video that shows a drone taking out a tank. Propaganda is what Russian media is doing which is largely not actual combat footage.

[LondonLax]

25 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

I don’t disagree, though I wouldn’t call a video of a Ukrainian tb2 taking out a t90 propaganda. It’s just a video that shows a drone taking out a tank. Propaganda is what Russian media is doing which is largely not actual combat footage.

Have a watch of this from 3m37 and he explains pretty well why that is not necessary true.

 

Edited May 21, 2022 by LondonLax

[magnkarl]

46 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

Have a watch of this from 3m37 and he explains pretty well why that is not necessary true.

 

Which is why great sources like UAWeaponstracker and Oryx is a must. Still, saying that combat footage is anything but combat footage (propaganda), is taking it a bit far.

[avfc1982am]

 

[magnkarl]

One more for the Russian Benny Hill highlight reel.

Here's a Russian war 'journalist' reporting on an amazing new mortar system that Russia has developed.

One day later, this is the result:

It's like Russians are too ignorant to realise that the new M3x7 artillery can't reach their mortar positions..

Edited May 23, 2022 by magnkarl

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[Davkaus]

Brave man, I hope he's got someone watching his back

[Mr_Dogg]

28 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

Brave man, I hope he's got someone watching his back

Unfortunately he does. 

[avfc1982am]

4 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

 

Damning statement. Love how he's thrown stroke face under the bus as an example of the lies. Excellent.