Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Panto_Villan]

1 hour ago, avfc1982am said:

No he can't. Have you no been watching any of the propaganda? 

Putin cannot now just pull out of Ukraine and claim some sort of victory. NATO are still arming Ukraine who are now incidentally far more powerful militarily than they were, the Nazi's still govern in Kyiv, and he hasn't even taken the Donbas. Putin pulling out of Ukraine may well pacify Mr & Mrs Dumbov but it's not fooling the elite. Those that have funded and supported his little financially ruinous venture and paid with their futures

He ain't walking out of Ukraine claiming a hollow victory because even he knows, as soon as Russia pull out and the cost of war to Russia is calculated, the knifes will be out for him. All those Russians being told family are MIA when their actually dead are going to come looking for answers. 

No, they’re not. If that was going to happen it would have already happened.

The elites are well aware of the costs of the war and the hollow justification for them, and always have been. Putin blew up their comfortable lives and their access to the West the moment they want to war. He doesn’t need to offer them propaganda because they know they’ll have an unfortunate window-related accident if they cross him. The elites (certainly the oligarchs) would have stopped the war already if they could, but they can’t. They’re already pacified.

The common people might be annoyed if the war ends without a decisive Russian victory, but ultimately they don’t have any power (and quite a few of them would believe the lies Putin told them if he pulled out), so it doesn’t matter.

Unpopular rulers can hold on a long time if they control the army and security services. Who exactly is going to overthrow Putin were he to pull out of Ukraine (say, for sanctions relief) in your scenario?

[HKP90]

13 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Yeah there was definitely a bit of fear about this early on, from a lot of folks, but it appears time has told and Putin's fear factor has receded. I take comfort from the slow motion escalation, tanks have come in and have we even seen threats of retaliation? If so not many. Even the Russians have realised their threats are impotent. Not discounting that they don't have something else major yet to say in this conflict, but you'd imagine they would have played their hand by now, before Ukraine strengthened. Looks like the Ruskis plan to park the bus, a bloody large one that is.

China was and remains the wild card in all this. If China supply Russia militarily, Putin will become emboldened.

[Jareth]

18 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

China was and remains the wild card in all this. If China supply Russia militarily, Putin will become emboldened.

Not saying that won't happen, I just don't see how the principle of China supplying weapons to kill Europeans in a country that is being invaded - in any way benefits China. When surely China can use that principle to its advantage, i.e. by applying it to Taiwan and telling the US to stay away in exchange for them staying away from Ukraine - it's of far more advantage to them than giving mad Vlad some artillery. And the US would have to concede that of the two democracies, Ukraine or Taiwan, their choice is going to have to be Ukraine.

[pas5898]

1 hour ago, HKP90 said:

China was and remains the wild card in all this. If China supply Russia militarily, Putin will become emboldened.

China will posture and make noise about this just to destabilise the whole thing. In reality they won't dare supply Russia. Militarily and economically it's a sinking ship. The reality is, China's economy is initially built on us, the west buying their stuff. If they supply Russia then any sanctions will completely decapitate their already extremely delicate economy (and have a deep effect on the worlds economy). Of course Putin will be desperately trying to get them to back him.

China's domination of its people, and growing middle class is built on the premise of them making their lives better. If there's sanctions that will no longer be the case.

[magnkarl]

1 hour ago, HKP90 said:

China was and remains the wild card in all this. If China supply Russia militarily, Putin will become emboldened.

Here's the reason why China won't supply Russia with weapons. If they do, or invade Taiwan for that matter, you can wipe something like 67% of their exports off that table below within a few months. Their economy is much more crashable than Russia, and China has very little reserves. It's a production economy rather than a raw goods economy. It's extremely reliant on democratic cash.

Edited March 14, 2023 by magnkarl

[Genie]

Can the RoW cope without China though? I expect worldwide inflation would go off the scale if we cut ourselves off Chinese imports. 

[avfc1982am]

5 hours ago, Panto_Villan said:

No, they’re not. If that was going to happen it would have already happened.

The elites are well aware of the costs of the war and the hollow justification for them, and always have been. Putin blew up their comfortable lives and their access to the West the moment they want to war. He doesn’t need to offer them propaganda because they know they’ll have an unfortunate window-related accident if they cross him. The elites (certainly the oligarchs) would have stopped the war already if they could, but they can’t. They’re already pacified.

The common people might be annoyed if the war ends without a decisive Russian victory, but ultimately they don’t have any power (and quite a few of them would believe the lies Putin told them if he pulled out), so it doesn’t matter.

Unpopular rulers can hold on a long time if they control the army and security services. Who exactly is going to overthrow Putin were he to pull out of Ukraine (say, for sanctions relief) in your scenario?

Why would he have been overthrown already have when he hasn't yet been weakened enough? 

Putin currently has control in Russia but if this whole situation goes South, which it can for him once this war comes to a conclusion, then all those that have lost out to his mess will all come crawling out the woodwork in opposition at some point. When one person becomes weak, another steps up. It might be 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, who knows, either way as soon as a bully starts sinking, rats will leave the ship and look for dry land. 

200k deaths and walking away claiming a victory whilst Ukraine is still being armed and strengthened would leave a lot more question than answers, especially when his own propaganda machine have been baying for the annihilation of Ukraine. 

I have no idea who could possibly overthrow Putin and why would I? I just don't think that Russia couldn't pull out now claiming any sort of victory, especially as the Ukrainian military is stronger, Russians don't control the regions they've annexed and they are far from a military win from any perspective. 

The problem is there is no way to actually prove or disprove at whether either of us will be correct because Russia aren't walking away and don't appear to be anytime soon.  

Edited March 14, 2023 by avfc1982am

[sidcow]

However you look at it it seems like a no win game for Putin now. 

[bickster]

Take it with a pinch of salt as possible propaganda but these numbers are horrific

 

[Panto_Villan]

34 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

Why would he have been overthrown already have when he hasn't yet been weakened enough? 

Putin currently has control in Russia but if this whole situation goes South, which it can for him once this war comes to a conclusion, then all those that have lost out to his mess will all come crawling out the woodwork in opposition at some point. When one person becomes weak, another steps up. It might be 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, who knows, either way as soon as a bully starts sinking, rats will leave the ship and look for dry land. 

200k deaths and walking away claiming a victory whilst Ukraine is still being armed and strengthened would leave a lot more question than answers, especially when his own propaganda machine have been baying for the annihilation of Ukraine. 

I have no idea who could possibly overthrow Putin and why would I? I just don't think that Russia couldn't pull out now claiming any sort of victory, especially as the Ukrainian military is stronger, Russians don't control the regions they've annexed and they are far from a military win from any perspective. 

The problem is there is no way to actually prove or disprove at whether either of us will be correct because Russia aren't walking away and don't appear to be anytime soon.  

The thing is that people have been saying the same thing you have at every stage of the war - Putin couldn’t survive when it became obvious that it wouldn’t be a three day war and Russia was going to take heavy losses, then he couldn’t survive when it became obvious Kyiv wouldn’t actually fall, and the sinking of their flagship, and a forced general mobilisation, and the retreats at Snake Island and then Kharkiv and then Kherson etc.

Russia has already been deeply humiliated in this war and taken huge casualties. It seems to me that predicting that a specific thing in the war would definitely cause Putin to lose power is a mug’s game.

You can disagree with that if you want. As you say, it’s not like we can test the hypothesis either way.

[Panto_Villan]

16 minutes ago, bickster said:

Take it with a pinch of salt as possible propaganda but these numbers are horrific

 

My favourite bit is how the 16 lucky survivors of wave 1 clearly just got put back in with the reinforcements for wave 2.

What a life.

[bickster]

9 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said:

What a life.

Short life

[sne]

Quote

A Russian fighter jet forced down a US Air Force drone over the Black Sea on Tuesday after damaging the propeller of the American MQ-9 Reaper drone, according to a US official familiar with the incident.

The Reaper drone and two SU-27 Flanker jets were operating over international waters over the Black Sea when one of the Russian jets intentionally flew in front of and dumped fuel in front of the unmanned drone, according to the official. One of the jets then damaged the propeller of the Reaper, which is mounted on the rear of the drone, the official said. The damage to the propeller forced the US to bring down the Reaper in international waters in the

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/14/politics/russian-jet-us-drone-black-sea/index.html

[avfc1982am]

1 minute ago, Panto_Villan said:

The thing is that people have been saying the same thing you have at every stage of the war - Putin couldn’t survive when it became obvious that it wouldn’t be a three day war and Russia was going to take heavy losses, then he couldn’t survive when it became obvious Kyiv wouldn’t actually fall, and the sinking of their flagship, and a forced general mobilisation, and the retreats at Snake Island and then Kharkiv and then Kherson etc.

Russia has already been deeply humiliated in this war and taken huge casualties. It seems to me that predicting that a specific thing in the war would definitely cause Putin to lose power is a mug’s game.

You can disagree with that if you want. As you say, it’s not like we can test the hypothesis either way.

I do disagree. I think your talking silly and making out I'm in some sort of delusional group just because I don't think Putin can walk away and claim victory as things stand, which is where we started this discussion. I'm not saying Putin will lose anytime soon because I'm not the one suggesting he could walk away and claim a victory. You've suggested that and I'm suggesting I don't think he can, that's all. I've never suggested Putin's removal was imminent in anyway either.

 

 

[Panto_Villan]

14 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I do disagree. I think your talking silly and making out I'm in some sort of delusional group just because I don't think Putin can walk away and claim victory as things stand, which is where we started this discussion. I'm not saying Putin will lose anytime soon because I'm not the one suggesting he could walk away and claim a victory. You've suggested that and I'm suggesting I don't think he can, that's all. I've never suggested Putin's removal was imminent in anyway either.

Nah, I'm not trying to imply you're delusional / stupid / whatever. I'm just pointing out why I disagree with what you're saying.

The arguments you're putting forward for him not being able to just walk away from the war rest on the same assumptions as all the other examples I gave in my previous post - that the Russian people are ready to rise up over Ukraine once it finally dawns on them how awful the war has been for Russia. But I think the evidence points to the fact that most Russians have already realised the war has been a disaster and just don't care enough about it to risk being arrested and tortured, so I don't see why a withdrawal would change things.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

7 hours ago, Mic09 said:

I'm not falling for anything. But it's escalation that I do worry about.

USA decides to send planes, Russia reacts by bombing an important military/civilian target, NATO increases support by opening a new tank stream, Belarus gets more involved, front gets pushed, some missiles fall in Poland, NATO reacts, and all of a sudden the war gets a big bigger than Ukraine. 

No one is nuking anyone now. But if any party makes the wrong moves,we could very considerably get there in the not too distant future. 

 

Sorry but that's not how I see it. 

Russia cannot afford to draw NATO into the conflict.  Its armed forces wouldn't last 7 days.  

The only way this war will involve nukes is if a large amount of NATO boots cross a significant distance across the Russian border.  I see no reason why that would happen.  

 

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

[blandy]

7 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

There's a reply underneath in German which says (translated): The drone fell out of the sky all by itself, got lost in a tall building and then fell out of the window.

[AshVilla]

17 hours ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said:

According to DW news the US has footage of what happened including the fuel dump happening in front of the drone but they can't release it yet as it's "classified".

I also didn't realise that Russia has banned DW news from reporting from inside Russia now and they are doing it from Riga instead 

 

Edited March 15, 2023 by AshVilla

[foreveryoung]

These drones have been flying around the black sea since the war started, not sure why the Russians are getting involved now. What I heard anyway, was the US don't want to make much of it, as they wouldn't want to start getting directly involved with the Ruskies.