Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

15 hours ago, bickster said:

This Russian attack on Pavlivka in Donetsk sounds horrendous

It was childlike in its execution.  The town North which Ukraine hold 100% and have Artillery cover and are dug in.

Russia enters on the East side of the town 1st,  the East part have predominately roads that go North to South. 

This is in direct fire from Pavlivka as Ukraine can see right down the roads,  big tactical error (What way do the roads go).  When this went wrong they went West and at the same time tried to Attack Pavlivka across the fields (This is mental is Ukraine has guided Artillery,  they are literally in the open waiting for it).  This obviously failed with almost 100% loss across the fields.  

Pavlivka itself,  they will retreat as (Or die) they have no cover (Sparsely populated houses).   This has been over the last 5 or 6 days I think.

This was their big plan.  Absolute amateurs.  All Russia need to do is a concentrated attack with multiple groups in co-ordination with Air cover to give a 30% chance of success at a guess.  They can't even do that.  They genuinely look like they don't know what to do anymore.

The New Mobilized aren't totally stupid people,  they will turn on their Commanders any time now.

Oil news,  it represented 21 % of their GDP prior to the war at Sales of 3.5 million barrels a day.  It is now down to 2.9 and the majority they are selling to India,  China and Turkey at 35% discount.  Once the EU ban and price cap come into play then they are screwed.

 

Edited November 8, 2022 by Amsterdam_Neil_D

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

3 minutes ago, HKP90 said:

So do we think the Ukrainians repeating their earlier tactic of absorbing attacks from defensive positions while degrading the enemy ahead of a counter assault? 

I was thinking they might do another "Thunder Run" (Think like Mad Max) but depends on the ground. This is what they did last time,  it worked too well if anything and they went too far.

[The Fun Factory]

On 04/11/2022 at 17:32, Genie said:

When will the penny drop with Putin that he can’t win. The West are only in 2nd gear.

Perhaps he is waiting for his mate The Donald to get back in.

[magnkarl]

26 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

Perhaps he is waiting for his mate The Donald to get back in.

Even if you remove the U.S after all of Biden's current defense packages are delivered, Europe would be able to supply more than enough to defeat the by then ragged idiocy that is the Russian conventional army.

There's also wide bipartisan support for supplying Ukraine, and tbh I don't see a scenario where the nutty right fringe of the Republicans will be able to sway the hawkish centre\left. No chance. Biden has two more years in office, by then Russia will have lost 300.000 men, or around a million if you count mia and injured. It's not sustainable for a country with an ever decreasing pool of men of combat age.

[Xann]

Going to watch how Major General Kirill Kulakov and the Russian command deals with numerous mutinous conscripts?

So will the World's press, since the clip of the revolt is all over the internet.

[sidcow]

56 minutes ago, Xann said:

Going to watch how Major General Kirill Kulakov and the Russian command deals with numerous mutinous conscripts?

So will the World's press, since the clip of the revolt is all over the internet.

What's this then?

[HolteExile]

Apologies if covered elsewhere:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/nov/06/us-says-zelenskiy-risks-allies-ukraine-fatigue-if-he-rejects-russia-talks-report

Quote

 

US officials have reportedly warned the Ukrainian government in private that it needs to signal an openness to negotiating with Russia.

Officials in Washington have warned that “Ukraine fatigue” among allies could worsen if Kyiv continues to be closed to negotiations, the Washington Post reported. US officials told the paper that Ukraine’s position on negotiations with Russia is wearing thin among allies who are worried about the economic effects of a protracted war.

Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has said Ukraine is only prepared to enter negotiations with Russia if its troops leave all parts of Ukraine, including Crimea and the eastern areas of the Donbas, de facto controlled by Russia since 2014, and if those Russians who have committed crimes in Ukraine face trial.

Zelenskiy also made clear that he would not hold negotiations with the current Russian leadership. Last month, he signed a decree specifying that Ukraine would only negotiate with a Russian president who has succeeded Vladimir Putin.

The US has so far given Ukraine $18.9bn (£16.6bn) worth of aid and is ready to give more, saying it will support Ukraine for as long as it takes. However, allies in parts of Europe, Africa and Latin America, US officials told the Post, are concerned by the strain that the war is putting on energy and food prices as well as supply chains.

“Ukraine fatigue is a real thing for some of our partners,” one US official said.

US officials have requested that Kyiv signal its openness to negotiate not to push Ukraine towards the negotiating table immediately, but to maintain the support of concerned allies, according to the Post.

For Ukrainian officials, the US’s request would mean reneging on several months of rhetoric about the need for a decisive military defeat against Russia in order to secure Ukraine’s security in the long term – a message that strongly resonates with the Ukrainian population who fear Russia will only try again to capture the country in the future.

The atrocities, deaths and destruction caused by Russia’s invasion have made negotiations unpalatable to many Ukrainians, particularly as the mood in Ukraine is buoyant after a string of successes on the battlefield in the north-east Kharkiv and southern Kherson regions.

 

 

[HolteExile]

Strikes totally the wrong tone for me.

Ukranian civiliians have suffered the most.  It's for them to decide if there can be talks and a negotiated settlement at some point in the future. 

[LondonLax]

3 minutes ago, HolteExile said:

Strikes totally the wrong tone for me.

Ukranian civiliians have suffered the most.  It's for them to decide if there can be talks and a negotiated settlement at some point in the future. 

If they were fighting using their own equipment they would be free to go as long as they like but if they need allies to supply their war effort they will need to take the feelings of their allies into account. 

 

[sidcow]

8 minutes ago, HolteExile said:

Strikes totally the wrong tone for me.

Ukranian civiliians have suffered the most.  It's for them to decide if there can be talks and a negotiated settlement at some point in the future. 

I agree 100%, but they are only in the position to make that decision because of billions of pounds of assistance from the rest of the world.  The pit is not bottomless.  

How willing would they be to negotiate if The West hadn't raised a finger to help?  Pretty damn desperate to settle for whatever they could get I would think.

So yes, it is definitely up to the people of Ukraine but they have to take into consideration that they are being supported by countries elsewhere.  I would also say you negotiate from a position of strength.  If they wait till eg Trump is back in and Europe has waivered in their resolve then they might end up trying to negotiate with a much weaker hand.

Edited November 8, 2022 by sidcow

[Xann]

24 minutes ago, sidcow said:

What's this then?

The Sun has it too.

[sidcow]

41 minutes ago, Xann said:

The Sun has it too.

Wow. Hopefully that's going all over Telegram and other Russian units start to get the same idea. 

[magnkarl]

1 minute ago, sidcow said:

Wow. Hopefully that's going all over Telegram and other Russian units start to get the same idea. 

Many Russian regime changes have happened just like this. Let's hope it spreads like wildfire.

[bannedfromHandV]

Well at some point there has to be talks otherwise they’ll just be at a de-facto state of war indefinitely, a la Korea.

Of course the ideal situation would be that those talks take place only if and when Russia has been fully booted back over the border but how likely is that to happen soon?

The sticking point of course is that (rightly) Ukraine want all of their territory back including Crimea and Russia will not just let that go, so it’ll be at an impasse until one side backs down and makes concessions.

[sidcow]

17 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Well at some point there has to be talks otherwise they’ll just be at a de-facto state of war indefinitely, a la Korea.

Of course the ideal situation would be that those talks take place only if and when Russia has been fully booted back over the border but how likely is that to happen soon?

The sticking point of course is that (rightly) Ukraine want all of their territory back including Crimea and Russia will not just let that go, so it’ll be at an impasse until one side backs down and makes concessions.

I think if I was Ukraine I would let them have Crimea if they left back to their pre March borders.  The proviso would have to be that the agreement is nullified if Russia invades again.

It gives Putin an off ramp as he can claim he's now "legally" got Crimea.  He would probably claim back home that was his intention over the whole thing.

By now Crimea will be totally Russian anyway, they will have cleansed the Ukraine out of it over the last 8 years.

Then The West needs to help re-build Ukraine and continue to keep it's military up to date to make it much more difficult for Russia to ever try again whilst continuing to hammer Russia with sanctions and refusing to buy their oil and gas.  That will hopefully ensure Russia is unable to ever re-build or modernise it's own Military.

Will all those young people ever go back to Russia, or in big numbers?   They've lost huge numbers of youth to the war directly and saddled themselves with a huge brain drain as people have left.

The future really doesn't look very rosy for them.

Meanwhile The West needs to put A LOT of research and development into anti nuclear missile technology.  It is surely possible to develop systems that can take out ICBM's.  we need to get to the stage where a rogue state with nuclear options can't hold the world to ransom. 

I think The West thought this issue had gone away but this will be a massive wake up call to what one nation with the technology can do.

Edited November 8, 2022 by sidcow

[bickster]

Just now, sidcow said:

I think if I was Ukraine I would let them have Crimea if they left back to their pre March borders

Not a chance of Ukraine agreeing to that. They need RUssia's footprint in the Black Sea to be as small as possible. Getting Sevastopol back is crucial to that

[magnkarl]

21 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Well at some point there has to be talks otherwise they’ll just be at a de-facto state of war indefinitely, a la Korea.

Of course the ideal situation would be that those talks take place only if and when Russia has been fully booted back over the border but how likely is that to happen soon?

The sticking point of course is that (rightly) Ukraine want all of their territory back including Crimea and Russia will not just let that go, so it’ll be at an impasse until one side backs down and makes concessions.

At this rate Russia will have regions much closer to home in open revolt to worry about. There's currently fairly open\armed revolts in Dagestan, Kuban, Irkutsk and so on. Holding on to Crimea will be secondary if the Russian regions close to Crimea all declare independence. A fairly common theory for a while is that Russia would break apart by 2024, at this rate I expect that it might do so sooner. The chances are that China will want their old regions back and then there'll be a race as to who gets to influence the new nations arising for the chaos. 

You can cut a line at the Volga, and straight over to Belgorod and you essentially have 'Russia'. The rest are areas that aren't really Russia. For example Kazan which was primarily Tatar territory until several purges, wars and deportations. 

 

Edited November 8, 2022 by magnkarl

[Chindie]

20 minutes ago, bannedfromHandV said:

Well at some point there has to be talks otherwise they’ll just be at a de-facto state of war indefinitely, a la Korea.

We have a winner!

That's a decent bet on what will happen. A war that doesn't end so much as stop because nobody fancied it enough to carry on, but couldn't back down either.

[villakram]

13 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I think if I was Ukraine I would let them have Crimea if they left back to their pre March borders.  The proviso would have to be that the agreement is nullified if Russia invades again.

It gives Putin an off ramp as he can claim he's now "legally" got Crimea.  He would probably claim back home that was his intention over the whole thing.

By now Crimea will be totally Russian anyway, they will have cleansed the Ukraine out of it over the last 8 years.

Then The West needs to help re-build Ukraine and continue to keep it's military up to date to make it much more difficult for Russia to ever try again whilst continuing to hammer Russia with sanctions and refusing to buy their oil and gas.  That will hopefully ensure Russia is unable to ever re-build or modernise it's own Military.

Will all those young people ever go back to Russia, or in big numbers?   They've lost huge numbers of youth to the war directly and saddled themselves with a huge brain drain as people have left.

The future really doesn't look very rosy for them.

Meanwhile The West needs to put A LOT of research and development into anti nuclear missile technology.  It is surely possible to develop systems that can take out ICBM's.  we need to get to the stage where a rogue state with nuclear options can't hold the world to ransom. 

I think The West thought this issue had gone away but this will be a massive wake up call to what one nation with the technology can do.

These proposals present a fundamental absence of understanding of the Russian position.

Also, modern delivery systems have at least 3 ways that render all the first strike fantasists quiver. (i) Orbital deployment (ii) Multi-warhead systems (iii) High mach delivery systems. This ignores more basic things such as submarine based coastal launches or terrain hugging delivery. Anti-missile systems only have a hope when the protection area is small and a direct impact is required by the attacking missile. Nuclear weapons are most effective when detonated in the air and their large impact radius means they can be aimed into a large area. The physics of this problem is well known. Magic bullets don't exist.

 

Edited November 8, 2022 by villakram

[Genie]

23 minutes ago, sidcow said:

I think if I was Ukraine I would let them have Crimea if they left back to their pre March borders.  The proviso would have to be that the agreement is nullified if Russia invades again.

If Crimea is given/returned to Russia then it’s there’s for good. Ukraine can’t then reclaim it (legally) if Russia invade again. It’s gone for good.