Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Panto_Villan]

For anyone not spending quite so much time on Twitter as us nerds, the significance of Kupiansk becomes quite obvious when you look at where the river next to Izyum runs. And then this map of the railway network in that part of the country is also helpful - bearing in mind the Ukranians control Kharkiv already, cutting off Kupiansk means that Izyum is cut off and a lot of important cities like Lyman would only be able to be supplied through a roundabout route via the south.

@bickster yup, saw that. Hopefully it means the reports of them already being significantly further down that road are true too!

[bickster]

@Panto_Villan

The tweet doesn't contain sensitive content unless your surname is Putin

[Panto_Villan]

6 minutes ago, bickster said:

@Panto_Villan

The tweet doesn't contain sensitive content unless your surname is Putin

Bloody hell, the Russians really are collapsing!

[BleedClaretAndBlue]

 

[bickster]

 

[Demitri_C]

Im actually suprised putin sent condolences to the uk about the queen 

[Genie]

9 minutes ago, Demitri_C said:

Im actually suprised putin sent condolences to the uk about the queen 

I bet he wouldn’t if it was Boris that had died.

[Amsterdam_Neil_D]

The actual war aside,  we have the economic sanctions.

Putin appeared on TV and said the following "Russia has lost nothing and will only gain from the special needs operation in Ukraine"

Once the Oil & gas is turned off to the EU and surrounding countries they are in serious trouble from that day onwards for exports.  They have allready managed to lose 70% of their export market for anything they make or produce.  For the oil and gas,  this is a problem as they can't sell enough of it after that,  to who ? at what discount and how do they get it there ? They can't,  it's impossible from what I can see.  How do you get oil to India in uninsured non existent ships ? (70 day round trip with unloading bottlenecks).

Imports,  they dissolved 60--70 % of their import partners overnight.  No spare parts or anything of any really value to them (Processors chips from China are no good for what they need).  

The planes are all Western,  no spare parts.  Most of the oil fields can only be reached by plane to deliver spare parts they don't have in planes that are falling apart.

(Why cant Boeing / Airbus over the air kill the planes on the ground via software ?)
 

[The Fun Factory]

I was hearing that the sanctions haven't yet really taken a toll yet in Russia? The bbc correspondent says in Moscow most food stuffs are still in stock apart some western products, though there is a more of a weariness within the population. Any optimistic talk of Putin being removed seems laughably remote and he is digging in for a long, hard, cold winter and hoping that the west blinks first.

Ultimately this war has accelerated the process of moving away from fossil fuels for energy which is a good move. But could have done without the war and misery though.

Wars often act as actions of change. WW2 accelerated nuclear power for example.

[sidcow]

17 minutes ago, Amsterdam_Neil_D said:

The actual war aside,  we have the economic sanctions.

Putin appeared on TV and said the following "Russia has lost nothing and will only gain from the special needs operation in Ukraine"

Once the Oil & gas is turned off to the EU and surrounding countries they are in serious trouble from that day onwards for exports.  They have allready managed to lose 70% of their export market for anything they make or produce.  For the oil and gas,  this is a problem as they can't sell enough of it after that,  to who ? at what discount and how do they get it there ? They can't,  it's impossible from what I can see.  How do you get oil to India in uninsured non existent ships ? (70 day round trip with unloading bottlenecks).

Imports,  they dissolved 60--70 % of their import partners overnight.  No spare parts or anything of any really value to them (Processors chips from China are no good for what they need).  

The planes are all Western,  no spare parts.  Most of the oil fields can only be reached by plane to deliver spare parts they don't have in planes that are falling apart.

(Why cant Boeing / Airbus over the air kill the planes on the ground via software ?)
 

Yeah, that's absolute bullshit bluster.

[sidcow]

5 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said:

I was hearing that the sanctions haven't yet really taken a toll yet in Russia? The bbc correspondent says in Moscow most food stuffs are still in stock apart some western products, though there is a more of a weariness within the population. Any optimistic talk of Putin being removed seems laughably remote and he is digging in for a long, hard, cold winter and hoping that the west blinks first.

Ultimately this war has accelerated the process of moving away from fossil fuels for energy which is a good move. But could have done without the war and misery though.

Wars often act as actions of change. WW2 accelerated nuclear power for example.

Agree.  This is where his massive miscalculation has backfired spectacularly.

I suspect somewhere in the background the whole thing started because he knows their entire wealth is based on oil and gas. That is going to end in most peoples lifetimes now.  He knows the writing is on the wall for Oil and Gas so needs to move Russia into another area.   Maybe he wanted control over the huge swathes of Grain and Sunflower Oil fields.  People will always need to eat, that's not going to change.  This could be Russia's new oil.

But if that is his aim, he's just shortened his timescales massively, he needs to replace Oil and Gas NOW because no one is going to pay him premium for it and so he's got to sell it off cheaply elsewhere to countries that don't have any infrastructure to bring it in cheaply either.  Building new pipelines to new markets is going to take years and cost huge sums of money, and all the while the world is weaning itself off Oil and Gas more and more.

What else is there for Russia?  They're not particularly good at making stuff so they're not likely to usurp Germany in Europe or Japan in the Far East as a manufacturing super power.   They're never going to be a financial super power.

A much better bet would have been to put all those hackers to good use and try to become a tech super power.  Things move quickly in the tech world so maybe they could have done that, become the new South Korea.  But no, he seems to have gone down the start a war and try to seize territory route which will end in disaster for Russia, no question.

[HKP90]

8 minutes ago, sidcow said:

Agree.  This is where his massive miscalculation has backfired spectacularly.

I suspect somewhere in the background the whole thing started because he knows their entire wealth is based on oil and gas. That is going to end in most peoples lifetimes now.  He knows the writing is on the wall for Oil and Gas so needs to move Russia into another area.   Maybe he wanted control over the huge swathes of Grain and Sunflower Oil fields.  People will always need to eat, that's not going to change.  This could be Russia's new oil.

But if that is his aim, he's just shortened his timescales massively, he needs to replace Oil and Gas NOW because no one is going to pay him premium for it and so he's got to sell it off cheaply elsewhere to countries that don't have any infrastructure to bring it in cheaply either.  Building new pipelines to new markets is going to take years and cost huge sums of money, and all the while the world is weaning itself off Oil and Gas more and more.

What else is there for Russia?  They're not particularly good at making stuff so they're not likely to usurp Germany in Europe or Japan in the Far East as a manufacturing super power.   They're never going to be a financial super power.

A much better bet would have been to put all those hackers to good use and try to become a tech super power.  Things move quickly in the tech world so maybe they could have done that, become the new South Korea.  But no, he seems to have gone down the start a war and try to seize territory route which will end in disaster for Russia, no question.

I don't know why they didn't realise that this would give most of the world a kick up the pants to move away from one of their principal exports forever. It's like committing seppuku. 

[Mr_Dogg]

3 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

Im actually suprised putin sent condolences to the uk about the queen 

He sent condolences to Charles, subtle difference.

[Panto_Villan]

The picture on the sanctions is really complex and ultimately I'm not sure anyone really knows. Quite a few serious financial types who have looked at the situation and come up with very different answers about how screwed Russia is in the short term. I don't think there's any question that they'll stunt Russia's growth in the long term though - but you only need to look at Iran to see that that effective sanctions doesn't necessarily lead to regime change or absolute poverty.

One thing people need to be aware of though is that Russia earns FAR more money from oil exports than they do from gas exports (I think it's literally 10x more, or something to that effect). This is why Russia can happily cut off the gas to Europe and not really worry too much financially. Sure, they're burning money because it's not like they can really send that gas anywhere else, but they're making a fortune from the high oil prices too. So they're in quite a strong financial position in the short term.

But as others have said, what are they hoping for in the long term? People won't want oil and gas forever. And it's not like the average Russian has a particularly good standard of life right now.

@bicksterUnfortunately it seems like the capture story might be a bit too good to be true. The little "mole" on the face of the captured guy looks more like dirt in the high-res shot, and people have dug up other images of the guy wearing the hat and it seems like he's completely bald on top of his head. Plus it'd be a little weird for him to be wearing the uniform of a soldier two ranks below him. So while I do hope it's true, I'm a bit skeptical at this point.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Russia’s other major exports are cheap but high performing tanks, air superiority fighters, attack helicopters and air defences.  

ooooops…….

 

 

[magnkarl]

The orcs are coming home to roost.

 

[Genie]

2 minutes ago, magnkarl said:

The orcs are coming home to roost.

 

Crazy! Why won’t the West just let them take whatever they want unchallenged? People are dying because of the West’s obsession with challenging Russia’s illegal invasions.

[magnkarl]

It appears that UA SOF captured the commander of the West group yesterday. It's crazy that commanders are at the front line like this. Imagine Patton getting caught charging into the front line on D-day or Montgomery trying to slip away because he followed the tip of the spear into the Market Garden operation..

Edited September 9, 2022 by magnkarl

[Panto_Villan]

Just now, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Russia’s other major exports are cheap but high performing tanks, air superiority fighters, attack helicopters and air defences.  

ooooops…….

I'm not sure you'll see *that* much of a reduction in Russian arms sales, tbh. Sure, it's now very obvious that Western weapons are massively superior to Russian kit so you might see nations like India or the Gulf states switching away from Russia - but a lot of the customers for Russian gear are developing nations (e.g. African states) who aren't going to be fighting Western powers and couldn't afford Western gear anyway. Russian tanks are cheap and relatively easy to maintain, and perfectly good for killing your own people / fighting border wars with other badly-equipped nations. Much like an AK-47, really.

Also, note that the problem isn't neccessarily the kit itself either, because the Ukrainians have made good use of Soviet equipment like T-72s and air defence systems during the war. A big part of the problem is just the incompetence and corruption in the Russian army.

It's worth looking at Russian exports for a moment too, which I've pasted below. Unfortunately the truth of the matter is that Russia is a very resource rich country. Obviously oil and gas make up 40%+ of their exports and that'll fall with time as the green revolution happens, but they've still got a huge amount of metal deposits and export other raw materials like food and timber etc, and there's always a demand for that sort of thing. This is why sanctions won't cause Russia to completely collapse - lots of their economy is just based on digging stuff out of the ground and selling it. But it's also not how you become a wealthy nation in the long term.

[Mandy Lifeboats]

I was being facetious regarding the arms exports. But there will definitely be a knock on effect.  Russia needs Western technology to build those export weapons.  They also need the same technology to maintain their own weapons.  So where do they use their limited supply obtained at a premium price via China?