Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[Eidolon]

The problem isn’t men being in charge (although the disparity in leadership positions by gender definitely does need squaring up) it’s the mega wealthy and the people serving purely their interests that we need to get shot of

[Mozzavfc]

3 minutes ago, Jareth said:

Random thought - maybe Putin is looking for a way out, by being completely uncalculatingly despicable. The guy wants to retire. 

I hear eastern Siberia is lovely this time of year. Maybe he'll retire out there

[Jareth]

2 minutes ago, Eidolon said:

The problem isn’t men being in charge (although the disparity in leadership positions by gender definitely does need squaring up) it’s the mega wealthy and the people serving purely their interests that we need to get shot of

Agreed - every single Tory female MP proves this point. 

[nick76]

6 hours ago, TheAuthority said:

He is so far off point here .

He is absolutely wrong.

In your opinion 

[nick76]

9 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Certainly a good window into the mindset of someone who believes in pre-emptive escalation, and the bizarre logic that underpins that.

Yep let’s wait until Putin has taken over the Ukraine completely instead

Also pre-emptive? Guess you’ve been asleep for the last 10 days

[foreveryoung]

I said I was the new trees geeking it up on flight radar. Interesting now I see a private jet from the Oman airforce landed in Farnborough?

Was a drone circling the Belarus border of Poland,  now quite a bit of usaf military there including reconacence aircraft, using Lublin Airport. 

Edited March 5, 2022 by foreveryoung

[Awol]

Not war porn (something this thread has benefited from the absence of, imo) but a practical example of why the Russians are doing little in the air during the day - and why it’s so important the west keeps sending Stinger-type missiles (that work please, Germany).

 

[Awol]

1 minute ago, foreveryoung said:

I said I was the new trees geeking it up on flight radar. Interesting now I see a private jet from the Oman airforce landed in Farnborough?

Also quite a bit of usaf military on the border of Poland, using Lublin Airport. 

RAF and RAFO are extremely close, as is the military relationship overall. Nothing unusual about senior Omani officers flying over here on business.

[El Zen]

28 minutes ago, Eidolon said:

The problem isn’t men being in charge (although the disparity in leadership positions by gender definitely does need squaring up) it’s the mega wealthy and the people serving purely their interests that we need to get shot of

Nail on the head.

[villa4europe]

9 minutes ago, Awol said:

Not war porn (something this thread has benefited from the absence of, imo) but a practical example of why the Russians are doing little in the air during the day - and why it’s so important the west keeps sending Stinger-type missiles (that work please, Germany).

 

That's crazy, cos cool is the wrong word but it's so watchable and I have a wry smile because it's Ukranian guys winning vs the Russians but at the end of the day it's still young men being sent to do the bidding of someone else shown dying 

I do actually have a degree of empathy with Russian soldiers that I didn't have with say the taliban when you saw similar videos in that war

Maybe it's because they're not fighting vs us or maybe because I do feel this is Putins war not theirs 

[foreveryoung]

14 minutes ago, villa4europe said:

That's crazy, cos cool is the wrong word but it's so watchable and I have a wry smile because it's Ukranian guys winning vs the Russians but at the end of the day it's still young men being sent to do the bidding of someone else shown dying 

I do actually have a degree of empathy with Russian soldiers that I didn't have with say the taliban when you saw similar videos in that war

Maybe it's because they're not fighting vs us or maybe because I do feel this is Putins war not theirs 

Most of the Russians still value life, the taliban didn't as they think they are going to a better place after killing kids via suicide bombs.

[Awol]

46 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Yep let’s wait until Putin has taken over the Ukraine completely instead

Also pre-emptive? Guess you’ve been asleep for the last 10 days

Nick, NATO is a defensive alliance and Ukraine is not a member, so a Russian attack on Ukraine doesn’t automatically trigger a NATO response.

That means any NFZ over Ukraine must be enforced by a coalition of countries willing to engage in direct combat with Russia. That is, to go to war with Russia over (but not limited to) Ukraine. 

A few points on that, then:

1) Only the USAF has the resources necessary to fight that battle, so without the Americans it is a non-starter. We European states have run down our capabilities to such an extent we no longer have sufficient fighter aircraft, enablers, and war stocks of munitions to prosecute a war with Russia. These are empirical realities.

2) capability aside, such a hypothetical action would split the NATO alliance, Putin’s primary strategic objective for Russia and much more important to him than taking over Ukraine. A broken NATO is like letting the wolf into the hen house. The Baltics, Romania, Poland, all become vulnerable. It would be a calamity.

3) Finally and by far most importantly, nuclear weapons. Putin has made it clear that their use is on the table if western forces intervene directly in Ukraine. People thought he was bluffing about the invasion but he wasn’t. When someone threatens you it’s wise to take the threat seriously, especially when the consequences are so awful.

That’s what deterrence is, an unspoken agreement between opponents to be deterred by the other’s potential destructive capability. The point is not to call the other party’s bluff and collapse the entire edifice of deterrence, because if deterrence doesn’t work then nuclear use is in the table. WW3 is on the table. We can’t un-invent nukes, deterrence is how we live with their existence without Armageddon occurring.

Our moral obligation to aid Ukraine must be weighed against a moral obligation to avoid causing a civilisation ending, ecologically catastrophic disaster, with the words ‘oh yeah? Bet you don’t.’

Edited March 5, 2022 by Awol

[choffer]

Heartened and terrified in equal measure at the talks of a temporary ceasefire to let people out of the country. So pleased if they get a chance to flee but the implication (as far as Putin will be concerned) is that you had your chance to go so if you’re still there you’re fair game. There’s going to be so many dead in the coming weeks. Horrifying. 

[villa4europe]

6 minutes ago, foreveryoung said:

Most of the Russians still value life, the taliban didn't as they think they are going to a better place after killing kids via suicide bombs.

Yeah exactly 

There is a very different feel to this for a lot of reasons, that being one of them for me 

[Adman]

58 minutes ago, Eidolon said:

The problem isn’t men being in charge (although the disparity in leadership positions by gender definitely does need squaring up) it’s the mega wealthy and the people serving purely their interests that we need to get shot of

The people at the top will always be rich and powerful. I just can't imagine a woman being in charge of a massacre, as mother's they tend to have a much more innate appreciation of the value of human life IMO.  

[foreveryoung]

6 minutes ago, Adman said:

The people at the top will always be rich and powerful. I just can't imagine a woman being in charge of a massacre, as mother's they tend to have a much more innate appreciation of the value of human life IMO.  

You being a little idealistic.

[nick76]

3 minutes ago, Awol said:

Nick, NATO is a defensive alliance and Ukraine is not a member, so a Russian attack on Ukraine doesn’t automatically trigger a NATO response.

That means any NFZ over Ukraine must be enforced by a coalition of countries willing to engage in direct combat with Russia. That is, to go to war with Russia over (but not limited to) Ukraine. 

A few points on that, then:

1) Only the USAF has the resources necessary l to fight that battle, so without the Americans it is a non-starter. We European states have run down our capabilities to such an extent we no longer have sufficient fighter aircraft, enablers, and war stocks of munitions to prosecute a war with Russia. These are empirical realities.

2) capability aside, such a hypothetical action would split the NATO alliance, Putin’s primary strategic objective for Russia and much more important than taking over Ukraine. A broken NATO is like letting the wolf into the hen house. The Baltics, Romania, Poland, all become vulnerable. It would be a calamity.

3) Finally and by far most importantly, nuclear weapons. Putin has made it clear that their use is on the table if western forces intervene directly in Ukraine. People thought he was bluffing about the invasion but he wasn’t. When someone threatens you it’s wise to take the threat seriously, especially when the consequences are so serious.

That’s what deterrence is, an unspoken agreement between opponents to be deterred by the other’s potential destructive capability. The point is not to call the other party’s bluff and collapse the entire edifice of deterrence, because if deterrence doesn’t work then nuclear use is in the table. WW3 is on the table. We can’t un-invent nukes, deterrence is how we live with their existence without Armageddon occurring.

Out moral obligation to aid Ukraine must be weighed against a moral obligation to avoid a civilisation ending, ecologically catastrophic disaster, with the words ‘oh yeah? Bet you don’t.’

I understand and knew some of your points although not all of it is correct.  At the end of the day, the current way means Russia gets Ukraine.

I guess that is the known but not talked about acceptance of this invasion by Russia.

[blandy]

10 minutes ago, Awol said:

People thought he was bluffing about the invasion but he wasn’t

Um…he was bluffing. He said he wasn’t going to invade. Sorry, rest of the post spot on, just minor pedantry on my part.

[foreveryoung]

1 minute ago, nick76 said:

I understand and knew some of your points although not all of it is correct.  At the end of the day, the current way means Russia gets Ukraine.

I guess that is the known but not talked about acceptance of this invasion by Russia.

Behind the scenes nato will be thinking, "let the Russians take Ukraine, it won't be the end of the world". So to speak.

[bickster]

11 minutes ago, Adman said:

The people at the top will always be rich and powerful. I just can't imagine a woman being in charge of a massacre, as mother's they tend to have a much more innate appreciation of the value of human life IMO.  

Thats why Thatcher didn't sink the Belgrano