hippo Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, regular_john said: Not sure I'm convinced. There is essentially zero chance that the residents of occupied territories would tolerate Russian oppressors. There would either be constant rebellion, uprising, guerilla warfare etc or the Russians will have to completely subjugate the population through tyrrany, which will likely require mass executions, concentration camps etc. and at that point - Nato or not - the west may step in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 11 minutes ago, regular_john said: Not sure I'm convinced. There is essentially zero chance that the residents of occupied territories would tolerate Russian oppressors. There would either be constant rebellion, uprising, guerilla warfare etc or the Russians will have to completely subjugate the population through tyrrany, which will likely require mass executions, concentration camps etc. Well in regions with large or majority pro russian support he can at least have enough of the population content enough or happy enough with picking their own pro Russian leaders. The fighting will be left to those people with russian support. It's different from occupyng Wester Ukraine where 80/90%+ of population would fight you and you would need Russian army to control. So it's all about the mathematics of the pro russian people living / from that area who are willing to rule it and set up a government with security etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CVByrne Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 (edited) Make no mistake, Russia will win this war, they will take Kyiv and the lands east of the Dnieper river and southern Ukraine along the Black sea coast incorporating Transnistria. With Kyiv encircled they will capture/kill the Ukrainian government so they can have a false trial and be executed by the puppet governments set up in its place. Best case scenario is there is a new Western Ukraine, which will be land locked and centred with a new capital at Lviv I do wonder what will happen with the territory south of Moldova as it has a large population of ethnic Romanians and some Bulgarians. So it might not be annexed, leaving Ukraine with some Black sea caost Edited March 2, 2022 by CVByrne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 32 minutes ago, BleedClaretAndBlue said: If true, it's incredible how Ukrainian pilots are using obsolete aircraft to teach Russians a lesson. It's also underlined the suspicion that many have had about the 'new' generations of Russian jets, they aren't all that. Give them all the MiG's in Europe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 25 minutes ago, CVByrne said: Make no mistake, Russia will win this war, they will take Kyiv and the lands east of the Dnieper river and southern Ukraine along the Black sea coast incorporating Transnistria. With Kyiv encircled they will capture/kill the Ukrainian government so they can have a false trial and be executed by the puppet governments set up in its place. Best case scenario is there is a new Western Ukraine, which will be land locked and centred with a new capital at Lviv I do wonder what will happen with the territory south of Moldova as it has a large population of ethnic Romanians and some Bulgarians. So it might not be annexed, leaving Ukraine with some Black sea caost Doubtful to say the least. Either Russia slaughters everyone in Kiev and levels it, or the war goes on until Russians and Belarussians take over at home. If Putin keeps committing troops, then who is going to look after his crumbling empire? Russia will never be able to recover from this, Norway\USA\Mexico\Quatar will happily ramp up gas production and oil deliveries to Europe, it'll just be a bit more expensive. This'll push Europe into a golden age of renewables (mainly solar and small nuclear facilities), which will in turn make Russia even more alone in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 If true, Ukraine has now taken out 10% of Russias reported armored capability. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 862 personnel carriers taken out? Are they using Bedford vans or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turvontour Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 Similarly to how we did for the NHS workers during Covid, our government is stood clapping the bravery of the Ukrainians. Not saying they shouldn't it's just an interesting parallel, standing and applauding from a distance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 3 minutes ago, turvontour said: Similarly to how we did for the NHS workers during Covid, our government is stood clapping the bravery of the Ukrainians. Not saying they shouldn't it's just an interesting parallel, standing and applauding from a distance. And supplying a shit load of guns, missiles, planes and other cutting edge technology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa89 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 7 minutes ago, magnkarl said: If true, Ukraine has now taken out 10% of Russias reported armored capability. I wouldn't put much stock in those figures. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post ml1dch Posted March 2, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted March 2, 2022 Ukranian road sign, with all locations renamed as "The Hague" 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 BBC Quote Russian drivers have been banned from competing in the UK by the national motorsport authority. Motorsport UK will refuse to recognise licences of competitors from the Russian federation until further notice. It means Nikita Mazepin cannot race in the British Grand Prix even if he continues to be part of the Haas team. Mazepin's father Dmitry provides financial backing to Haas and is close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 12 minutes ago, villa89 said: I wouldn't put much stock in those figures. You can probably shave off 40-50%, but that is still a lot of ruined armored vehicles. People who study the battleground via sattelite seem to agree that there's a lot of burnt out husks of tanks and personnel carriers standing around north of Kiev and Kharkiv, so it's not totally out of the blue either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 2 hours ago, hippo said: In a word - Poland. I bloody hope not 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 2, 2022 Moderator Share Posted March 2, 2022 37 minutes ago, Genie said: And supplying a shit load of guns, missiles, planes and other cutting edge technology. I wondered why my local hospital had a Challenger Tank and an air defence missile battery in the atrium. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 1 hour ago, CVByrne said: They will then be dependent on foreign oil and gas for a long long time They also have no port capable of taking liquefied natural gas and are reliant on piped gas. One thing they could do would be to build the port required to enable them to get gas from outside of Europe. I think the plan was to speed up a transition to renewables though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lichfield Dean Posted March 2, 2022 VT Supporter Share Posted March 2, 2022 If only politicians hadn't been taking bribes for the last forty years to keep us dependant upon fossil fuels. We could have had decades of clean energy and massively reduced dependencies on the likes of Russia and Saudi. And now look what's happening... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 There are some brave Ukranians now venturing to the battlegrounds to record what is going on. One 'reporter' north of Kharkiv has focused on the tip of the spear during the first few days, the 200 motorised infantry brigade, which seems to have lost all their men, tanks and supplies to the Ukranian army. It's not going too well when Putin is also losing his best tanks to the enemy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 TB2's have also been busy down South in Ukraine, they're effectively wrecking Russia's best air defense systems (BUK's) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post HanoiVillan Posted March 2, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted March 2, 2022 Since it came up On Here a while ago, a thread on the effect of sanctions on Russian commercial air travel. TL/DR - it don't look good. There's more in the thread, including how Russia's lack of open skies agreements and inability to make international payments will also play havoc. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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