Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[osmark86]

11 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Not strictly Russia but related

what an absolute waste of oxygen

[Talldarkandransome]

1 minute ago, Lichfield Dean said:

 

 

Does Rep. Stand for Representative for Wellingbrough

[NurembergVillan]

1 hour ago, Tayls said:

How are military equipment and other supplies getting to those in Kyiv though if it’s surrounded… 

Mayor Klitschko has announced that the "surrounded" statement attributed to him was disinformation created by the Russians.

[foreveryoung]

Be interesting to know what the next move would be by Nato or other countries if Russia use a Nuclear weapon. I mean I think we know it will not be the 'big' one, but they could us smaller nuclear missiles against unkraine. They already have Nuclear weapon ready tanks over there.

[Panto_Villan]

So I was reading an article the Economist posted today on the most recent round of sanctions that include the Russian banks being cut off from SWIFT and it said, actually, while the SWIFT stuff was getting all the headlines there was something far larger in the sanctions package flying under the radar.

That thing is the sanctions targeting the Russian central bank. That big war chest of $630bn that the Russians have built up? There's a good chance the majority of it is tied up in Western institutions that will obey the sanctions and freeze those accounts (I suspect it's particularly relevant here here that Switzerland has said it will comply with US / EU sanctions). With a much more limited war chest the Russian central bank will find it much harder to prop up the ruble against devaluation.

It'll be interesting tomorrow to see what damage is wrought on the Russian economy, because sanctioning a nation's central bank is the financial equivalent of dropping a H-bomb on them. 

[tonyh29]

1 minute ago, foreveryoung said:

Be interesting to know what the next move would be by Nato or other countries if Russia use a Nuclear weapon. I mean I think we know it will not be the 'big' one, but they could us smaller nuclear missiles against unkraine. They already have Nuclear weapon ready tanks over there.

I suspect we’d pretend we didn’t notice  and suddenly take an interest in the Saudis bombing the shit out of Yemen as way of a distraction 

but let’s hope it doesn’t come to that

 

[Davkaus]

3 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

I know there's a war on, but if I were in a position of authority in the Ukrainian government I might be telling whoever run the official Twitter account for the National Guard that they aren't doing any favours vis-a-vis the 'Nazi' allegation by posting content in which they put lard on bullets to fire at Chechens:

(It's also not really the main problem here, but guys, Muslim soldiers don't become 'extra dead' or something because you coated the bullet in a pork product, there are more productive uses of your time).

I posted this without comment on a couple of popular news sections on Reddit, and got banned for "distributing Russian propaganda". By posting content from the Ukranian national guard. No wonder social media always seems like an echo chamber.

Viva la VillaTalk.

[Panto_Villan]

Oh, and on top of all the of the weapon systems being given Ukraine, apparently Bulgaria / Slovakia / Poland are going to be providing them combat aircraft.

I sorta feel like we're getting into full-blown proxy war status here though.

[Panto_Villan]

2 minutes ago, Davkaus said:

I posted this without comment on a couple of popular news sections on Reddit, and got banned for "distributing Russian propaganda". By posting content from the Ukranian national guard. No wonder social media always seems like an echo chamber.

Viva la VillaTalk.

Those Azov guys are the actual Ukrainian neo-nazis, right? I wouldn't be overly fussed if they fought the Chechens to the death and nobody won.

[tonyh29]

1 minute ago, Panto_Villan said:

So I was reading an article the Economist posted today on the most recent round of sanctions that include the Russian banks being cut off from SWIFT and it said, actually, while the SWIFT stuff was getting all the headlines there was something far larger in the sanctions package flying under the radar.

That thing is the sanctions targeting the Russian central bank. That big war chest of $630bn that the Russians have built up? There's a good chance the majority of it is tied up in Western institutions that will obey the sanctions and freeze those accounts (I suspect it's particularly relevant here here that Switzerland has said it will comply with US / EU sanctions). With a much more limited war chest the Russian central bank will find it much harder to prop up the ruble against devaluation.

It'll be interesting tomorrow to see what damage is wrought on the Russian economy, because sanctioning a nation's central bank is the financial equivalent of dropping a H-bomb on them. 

There was a chart of their reserves on the web somewhere  , most of it is in oil , gold and RMB , with a small measure of £, € , $ and other currencies … they offloaded most of their Yankee $’s some time ago.

 Although not as widespread as Swift , Russia has its own domestic system (SPFS) and I guess could still have access  to the Chinese CIPs system .I’m not sure western banks could freeze all of it ,  but I’m no expert on such things 

[Davkaus]

Just now, Panto_Villan said:

Those Azov guys are the actual Ukrainian neo-nazis, right? I wouldn't be overly fussed if they fought the Chechens to the death and nobody won.

They are. I don't think anyone is surprised that nazis gonna nazi, it's a bit more problematic that the mainstream Ukranian armed forced are promoting and celebrating their actions.

It does highlight that if you try and discuss the conflict in any way other than an absolutionist "Russia is evil, and Ukraine are fighting for all of our freedom", some people are too stupid to accept it. I mean, obviously Russia are in the wrong in this conflict, but on major platforms you seem to need to pretend that Ukraine is whiter than white. Which has nothing to do with their nazi problem  

[Panto_Villan]

Just now, Davkaus said:

They are. I don't think anyone is surprised that nazis gonna nazi, it's a bit more problematic that the mainstream Ukranian armed forced are promoting and celebrating their actions.

It does highlight that if you try and discuss the conflict in any way other than an absolutionist "Russia is evil, and Ukraine are fighting for all of our freedom", some people are too stupid to accept it. I mean, obviously Russia are in the wrong in this conflict, but on major platforms you seem to need to pretend that Ukraine is whiter than white. Which has nothing to do with their nazi problem  

Agreed on both counts. I was just wondering if maybe the Twitter account was being run by representatives of the Azov regiment or something; they're a proper Ukrainian national guard unit these days because I think all the various militias that sprung up in 2014 got folded into the armed forces afterwards.

[Nicho]

I think I’m struggling with the comprehension of this war:

Is it just the first European war in my lifetime? (I’m 33 so don’t remember anything about Bosnia) 

is it just because so many European countries are sanctioning?

is it because it’s a bit closer to home than usual? 

Ive seen suggestions that the countries involved are white so this is getting more weight?

And my own opinion which is typical, this has genuine chance to be a milestone for a proper war?

[chrisp65]

Have you stayed at a Best Western before?

I lock the front door at 10:30pm and breakfast is between 7:30 and 7:45am.

No smoking in the room.

[tonyh29]

These 2 Russian (Generals ? ) looked impressed when Putin announced his nuclear threat level raise 

[Tayls]

46 minutes ago, NurembergVillan said:

Mayor Klitschko has announced that the "surrounded" statement attributed to him was disinformation created by the Russians.

Yea saw this on the bbc feed not long after posting. Good news for now. Unfortunately it is what will happen at some point though. Dread to think what happens at that point. 

[chrisp65]

1 hour ago, Tayls said:

England won’t play ‘Not Russia FC’… a simple name change isn’t going to do it. There isn’t a single nation that will line up on a pitch to play against anyone associated with Russia.   

 

Let’s see a few of these statements hitting the social media

Quote

The FAW has decided that Cymru will not play any international fixtures against Russia for the foreseeable future, at any level of the game.

Quote

Сильніші разом. Together, we are stronger. Gyda'n gilydd, yn gryfach.

Edited February 27, 2022 by chrisp65

[Panto_Villan]

37 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

There was a chart of their reserves on the web somewhere  , most of it is in oil , gold and RMB , with a small measure of £, € , $ and other currencies … they offloaded most of their Yankee $’s some time ago.

 Although not as widespread as Swift , Russia has its own domestic system (SPFS) and I guess could still have access  to the Chinese CIPs system .I’m not sure western banks could freeze all of it ,  but I’m no expert on such things 

Apparently it is 16% dollars, 32% Euros, 22% in gold and 13% Chinese Yuan. But counterintuitively what currency or commodity it is held in doesn't really matter that much.

Basically the sanctions (US, EU, UK) say that if you trade with a sanctioned party then you'll be heavily fined or cut off from the financial systems of the US, UK and EU. Understandably no multinational firm will choose to trade with the Russian central bank under those circumstances.

The issue that the Russians are facing is that most of their reserves are held either fully abroad, or in the Russian branches of multinational banks. For example - if they've decided that they want to hold $50bn in gold in a secure Swiss bank vault rather than having to physically store several thousand gold bars somewhere in Russia, that Swiss bank now has to confiscate that gold or they themselves will be cut off from the financial system. It doesn't matter that the Russians don't want to trade in dollars or hold dollars in that bank, what matters is whether the Swiss bank ever wants to be able to use dollars again.

Edited February 27, 2022 by Panto_Villan

[Tayls]

3 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

 

Let’s see a few of these statements hitting the social media

 

It’s a shame really. Football is football. It should be uniting people. 

[ciggiesnbeer]

The Russian economy is being devastated and Putin is now an international pariah.. Its good to see. Now we wait to see how long Putin can hold onto power as the weak leader he self evidently is. Dictators who are not feared or respected dont tend to last very long.

Ignore Putin's nuclear threats. His word has proven utterly worthless. 

Edited February 27, 2022 by ciggiesnbeer