bickster Posted February 14 Moderator Share Posted February 14 22 minutes ago, villan95 said: Lead down to 11-12 points in the last 2 polls. Nope, in the latest round of polling, only two companies showing that kind of lead, Sevanta and More In Common. The ectual two latest polls, Redfield and Wilton and Deltapoll both have Labour with 1 to 2% rises and leads of 18 and 25% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan95 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, bickster said: Nope, in the latest round of polling, only two companies showing that kind of lead, Sevanta and More In Common. (Which is pretty normal for them) The ectual two latest polls, Redfield and Wilton and Deltapoll both have Labour with 1 to 2% rises and leads of 18 and 25% Ah I was just going off the last 2 that had been tweeted by Britain Elects. The Savanta one saw the lead cut from 19pts to 12. Does seem odd that there is such a discrepancy between pollsters though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan95 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, markavfc40 said: What polls are these. This appears to be the latest poll. Ooh hadn't seen this. Hopefully this is correct, would love to see a thrashing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted February 14 Moderator Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, villan95 said: Ah I was just going off the last 2 that had been tweeted by Britain Elects. The Savanta one saw the lead cut from 19pts to 12. Does seem odd that there is such a discrepancy between pollsters though. Personally I think all the polling is off to some extent. Right now people are reacting to a question they can’t possibly know the answer to until an election is called. I fully expect there to be a much higher tactical voting element to this election. I think the LibDems final figure is being under represented in the polling, I wouldn’t be shocked if they ended up around 15%. Conversely I think Reform are being over represented in some polls. One of those polls you’re referring to has Labour down 5 and Tory up 2, that just isn’t a credible swing given the events of the last week but they do have reform at a more reasonable 8 and LibDems up 1. Tbh, right now, I don’t think any of the polling is bang on the money. I do think the Tories are headed for their worst ever election defeat since the current electoral system was constituted, worse that 1997 by some distance and I also think it will be many election cycles before they recover because initially they will swing themselves further to right and they'll increase their marginalisation more rapidly than is already naturally happening. These minor changes at this stage of the cycle mean absolutely nothing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xann Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Second Green on that. Somewhere around Shepton, maybe? Which is where the Glastonbury site actually is. Thought it might be Moggville for a minute, but I think he's a little further North? Yandex-Mogg losing to a Green would be too good to be true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted February 14 Moderator Share Posted February 14 How far in advance of it is an election normally announced? Do the Tories risk not giving the attack dogs at the papers enough time to savage Mr Starmer if they leave the announcement until as late as possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted February 14 Moderator Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: How far in advance of it is an election normally announced? Do the Tories risk not giving the attack dogs at the papers enough time to savage Mr Starmer if they leave the announcement until as late as possible? Usually 6 to 7 weeks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan95 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 18 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said: How far in advance of it is an election normally announced? Do the Tories risk not giving the attack dogs at the papers enough time to savage Mr Starmer if they leave the announcement until as late as possible? I actually reckon it gets to a point where some right wing media don't even campaign for the Tories because they won't want to back a loser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 34 minutes ago, Xann said: Second Green on that. Somewhere around Shepton, maybe? Which is where the Glastonbury site actually is. Thought it might be Moggville for a minute, but I think he's a little further North? Yandex-Mogg losing to a Green would be too good to be true. Bristol West is the seat they're confident of taking, Carla Denyer taking it from Labour's Thangam Debbonaire. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan95 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) 45 minutes ago, bickster said: Personally I think all the polling is off to some extent. Right now people are reacting to a question they can’t possibly know the answer to until an election is called. I fully expect there to be a much higher tactical voting element to this election. I think the LibDems final figure is being under represented in the polling, I wouldn’t be shocked if they ended up around 15%. Conversely I think Reform are being over represented in some polls. One of those polls you’re referring to has Labour down 5 and Tory up 2, that just isn’t a credible swing given the events of the last week but they do have reform at a more reasonable 8 and LibDems up 1. Tbh, right now, I don’t think any of the polling is bang on the money. I do think the Tories are headed for their worst ever election defeat since the current electoral system was constituted, worse that 1997 by some distance and I also think it will be many election cycles before they recover because initially they will swing themselves further to right and they'll increase their marginalisation more rapidly than is already naturally happening. These minor changes at this stage of the cycle mean absolutely nothing That MRP poll is interesting, with it being constituencies rather than just national it might be picking up on some of the tactical vote elements better I.e. it only has the Lib Dems on 11% but picking up over 50 seats. The Tories getting less than 100 seats would be beautiful. Edited February 14 by villan95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted February 14 VT Supporter Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, markavfc40 said: What polls are these. This appears to be the latest poll. If only they would get on with being more right wing. Really sort out the small boat crossings, jet people out to Rwanda, take us further away from Europe THEN they wouldn't be getting such a bashing from Labour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 (edited) 1 hour ago, villan95 said: Ah I was just going off the last 2 that had been tweeted by Britain Elects. The Savanta one saw the lead cut from 19pts to 12. Does seem odd that there is such a discrepancy between pollsters though. If you dig into the reasons, it's not so strange. Different polls ask slightly different things, and interpret the results differently. If you ask a group of people "would you vote Labour / Tory / other?", and then if they select "other" then it opens a sub-question of "you've chosen other, which of Lib Dem / Reform / Green etc would you vote for", that gives massively different results to asking an initial question of "would you vote Labour / Tory / Lib Dem / Green / etc?". So one psephologist might argue that they second is better, as it's in line with a voter seeing a list of candidates to vote for at an election. But another might say that the first is better, because someone who, when presented with a list of ideal options a year away from an election might say that they'll vote Green, but they'll actually vote Labour in their Labour / Tory marginal. Or they might think the Tories are rubbish and are definitely going to vote Reform because Sunak is a lefty, Consocialist remainer but on election day, they don't want to be the missing vote that meant the Brexit guy they liked in 2019 loses to that Labour bloke who knocked on your door that time in a Progress Pride Flag t-shirt. As an example, if you look at the data from a couple of the recent polls the percentage of people who said that they were voting Labour was identical, but the methodology used gave Labour a 14 point lead in one and a 19 point lead in another. The other big thing is how they treat "don't knows". Typically that's meant "I'll begrudgingly vote Tory", so some polls just stick about 60% of the don't knows on top of the Tory vote. Others say that "don't know" in the current climate means they're more likely to vote for a change than not, so don't. The data that they're bringing back is all broadly the same, it's how they analyse it that brings in that discrepancy. In the absence of a better way, I'd probably look at who got previous elections closest and assume that until something changes to disprove it, then their method is probably the right one. Edited February 14 by ml1dch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 15 VT Supporter Share Posted February 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted February 15 Share Posted February 15 Maybe this is one of those things where people only vaguely paying attention is going to work in Labour's favour: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The right wing media are just clasping at straws now. I think a lot of voters actually think he handled it well. Also this point is probably relevant: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Starmer making a right mess of it again tsk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 16 VT Supporter Share Posted February 16 Both results are more a case of the official Tories being **** than a resounding show of support for disguised Tories in fairness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ml1dch Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 44 minutes ago, Chindie said: Both results are more a case of the official Tories being **** than a resounding show of support for disguised Tories in fairness. Isn't "displeasure with the party in charge" the story of pretty much every Government by-election loss in history? Don't see why these ones are different to all the others. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chindie Posted February 16 VT Supporter Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, ml1dch said: Isn't "displeasure with the party in charge" the story of pretty much every Government by-election loss in history? Don't see why these ones are different to all the others. Yes. Just taking the edge off before the centrists choke on a Starmergasm, is all. Doing them a favour, not that they deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seat68 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Chindie said: Yes. Just taking the edge off before the centrists choke on a Starmergasm, is all. Doing them a favour, not that they deserve it. Perhaps this is the wrong forum for that, there aren't really cheerleaders for Starmer on VT, more that people want the Conservative party out by any means necessary, that doesn't equate to "Starmergasm", if anything, yourself and Jareth are the ones that post most about him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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