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The misuse of Statistics


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Posted

This is something that does my noodle in. People more and more just quote statistics, as if just stating them actually means anything. 

 

You need to qualify what it is, Villa have got 2 draws and 3 defeats away at Palace in the Premier League era. 

 

Ok that is the Birmingham Mails stat. They've stated it, now what are they inferring from that? Is it that somehow players who play for Villa can't perform at that ground? What is it they are doing? 

 

It is like like saying, Dave has flipped a coin and has got heads 5 times in a row. What are we inferring from that? 

 

 

I mean, people in modern society are simply infatuated by the randomness of a sequence, despite the fact they have to occur. We play so many teams that it's inevitable one of the teams we will have a sequence like this against born out of randomness. 

 

 

Where sequences built up during a season, infer that a team is in / out of form, our leaky in defence , strong in attack etc.. 

 

 

The last 5 scorers in this fixture had red hair. What on earth are we supposed to do with useless information like that. People seem to love stats and quoting them without every trying to engage their brains. 

Posted (edited)

There are 2 types of statistics for me, relevant statistics (Like how many shots on target, goals scored, goals you have conceded throughout let's say 3 months) And then we have the irrelevant statistics, you are referring to in your post.

 

Imo, statistics means something, but only the right kinds of statistics. It gives you a conclusion of your team's weaknesses and/or strenghts.

Edited by villalad21
  • Like 2
Posted

There are 2 types of statistics for me, relevant statistics (Like how many shots on target, goals scored, goals you have conceded throughout let's say 3 months) And then we have the irrelevant statistics, you are referring to in your post.

 

Imo, statistics means something, but only the right kinds of statistics. It gives your a conclusion of your team's weaknesses and/or strenghts.

 

 

Totally agree, you use a stat to infer something.

 

Villas lack of goals for example. Attribute to

 

1) No Benteke

2) Poor performances

3) Tough opposition

 

etc... Same way we look at posession, shots on goal / on target also very useful.

 

Pointing out a specific team we've had a sequence against. Pointless. 

Posted

The problem is that so many people associate correlation with causation. If that stopped, e.g. if the difference were taught in schools, then the media wouldn't blurt out all the trivial stats that lack any causal meaning.

PS the next time you hear someone say "Villa haven't won in 3 games", remind yourself that they probably won their fourth last match.

  • Like 1
Posted

Comparing Chelsea and Man City last night on Sky Sports news.

 

I'm paraphrasing

 

"Cahill and Kompany are the best defenders of their respective teams this season, but Cahill has performed better with 84 blocks compared to Kompany's 61"

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