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Relegation v4.0


BleedClaretAndBlue

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Don't really know what to make of it... Elated with they way we're playing and can't see that team going the last 5 (including today) without a win. But whilst we're in our position, we have to be concerned. I cannot believe we've taken nothing from that game - in all honesty it should've been all 3 points and not just 1. I don't think our points return has matched performance since the change of manager, I that will adjust in the next few games.

Final point, how inept does Lambert now look.

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What are the permutations that would see us relegated before the last game of the season? I want that lifeline. 

Assuming you mean what sees us safe, rather than relegated:

 

If we beat Everton and West Ham:

  • Burnley cannot catch us if they drop any more points
  • QPR cannot catch us if they drop any more points
  • Sunderland cannot catch us if they lose more than 2 of their 5 remaining, or drop points in 3

If we get 4 points from Everton and West Ham:

  • Burnley cannot catch us if they lose another game
  • QPR cannot catch us if they drop points in 2 more games
  • Sunderland cannot catch us if lose more than 3 of their 5 remaining 

 

 

No I actually meant to be relegated. I was after reassurance that we have the Burnley game as a 'saver'. :)

 

It's highly unlikely that we'll be down on the final day. Realistically I think we'll probably go into it where a draw/win would see us safe but we could still lose and stay up.

 

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Burnley will already be relegated by the time we play them at home, that's a win there.

 

I also think we'll beat West Ham in the run in, indeed 4 points from those two games will probably be enough. Think Everton game next week will be a draw.

 

Results didn't go for us today, they can't do every well but the main thing was Sunderland didn't win and I can't see them getting to 36 or 37 points with the fixtures they have remaining.

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Doesn't matter how good we play aslong as we don't get anything from games

 

We got 3 points from a league game two weeks ago. Stop being overdramatic.

 

A team that wins at Spurs and beats Liverpool in the cup isn't going to suddenly barely get a point from games against Burnley, West Ham and Everton.

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As worrying as the table appears, does anyone really see us failing to win one from the next four playing as we are?

 

No but I suppose the only worry is our defence is starting to ship 3 goals in games regularly now. That said 6 of them came against Manchester clubs with world class attackers like Mata, Rooney, Silva and Aguero.

 

It's fair to say West Ham and Burnley don't have those so I wouldn't be expecting to concede many goals against those two and we certainly have goals in our team now with how we're playing.

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What are the permutations that would see us relegated before the last game of the season? I want that lifeline. 

Assuming you mean what sees us safe, rather than relegated:

 

If we beat Everton and West Ham:

  • Burnley cannot catch us if they drop any more points
  • QPR cannot catch us if they drop any more points
  • Sunderland cannot catch us if they lose more than 2 of their 5 remaining, or drop points in 3

If we get 4 points from Everton and West Ham:

  • Burnley cannot catch us if they lose another game
  • QPR cannot catch us if they drop points in 2 more games
  • Sunderland cannot catch us if lose more than 3 of their 5 remaining 

 

 

No I actually meant to be relegated. I was after reassurance that we have the Burnley game as a 'saver'. :)

 

Wow, jesus. Okay... let's see

 

For us to be more than 3 points from safety on the last day:

 

Based on us losing our next 3 (32pts):

Sunderland need to win 2 and draw 1 of their next 4 games (36pts)

AND Leicester need to win 2 (37pts) or win 1 and draw 2 (36pts) of their next 4 games

AND Hull need to win 2 (37pts) or win 1 and raw 2 (36pts) of their next 4 games

AND Newcastle need to not lose one of their next 3 games

 

Based on us drawing 1 in our next 3 (33pts):

Sunderland need to win 3 (39pts) or win 2 and draw 1 (37pts) of their next 4 games

AND Leicester need to win 2 (37pts) or win 1 and draw 3 (37pts) of their next 4 games

AND Hull need to win 2 (37pts) or win 1 and draw 3 (37pts) of their next 4 games

AND Newcastle need to win 1 (38pts) or draw 2 (37pts) of their next 3 games

 

Based on us drawing 2 in our next 3 (34pts):

Sunderland need to win 3 (39pts) or win 2 and draw 2 (38pts) of their next 4 games

AND Leicester need to win 3 (40pts) or win 2 and draw 1 (38pts) of their next 4 games

AND Hull need to win 3 (40pts) or win 2 and draw 1 (38pts) of their next 4 games

AND Newcastle need to win 1 (38pts) or draw 3 (38pts) of their next 3 games

 

Based on us winning one in our next 3 games (35pts):

Sunderland need to win 3 (39pts) of their next 4 games

AND Leicester need to win 3 (40pts) of their next 4 games

AND Hull need to win 3 (40pts) of their next 4 games

AND Newcastle need to win 2 (41pts) or win 1 and draw 1 (39pts) of their next 3 games

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I wish I could be as confident as some of you. By next Sunday I can easily see Sunderland (saints at home), Hull (liverpool home), Leicester (newcastle home + if Chelsea win arsenal they have title in bag and Leicester can get points from them too) all winning. And Burnley (West ham away) too. And us losing to everton. That would mean:

Hull 34

Leicester 34

Sunderland 33

Villa 32

Burnley

QPR

 

 

I don't mean to offend mate but this is pessimistic bollocks. We are playing at home, hopefully in front of a full house, against an Everton side with f*ck all to play for who have been average at best all season and they are up against us with loads to play for, playing well and with plenty of confidence. Sunderland have Southampton who are 7th in the table and desperate to secure European football next season for the first time in years, Hull have Liverpool who will also want to secure some form of European football next season and Burnley who are in poor form have West Ham away. From all that you think we are going to lose and everyone else down the bottom is going to win. It could happen of course but it won't.

 

My advice to anyone bricking it is to get to Villa Park next week and back this club to secure three more points towards staying up.

 

 

 

Here Here.

 

Look at Sunderland's run.....Leicester and Southampton at home and Everton, Arsenal and Chelsea away. To me there's massive pressure on them to win their two home games and I don't see it with the form Leicester are in.

 

How anyone can say they'd rather have Sunderland's run in than ours is beyond me, you'd rather play Chelsea away on the final day than an already relegated Burnley at home. Don't forget Sunderland will have to claim 3 more points than us in the run in to finish above us.

 

QPR and Burnley are done for me and I think Sunderland will get 4 points at best from their run in, from the two home games. I see nothing from them getting away points.

 

As I've said before if people are so worried just back the relegation rivals to win and you'll make a few bob as insurance, I had a Leicester-Hull double today that paid very nicely indeed....

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How people can disregard the concern as moronic is beyond me.

I genuinely feel for those that are really bricking it. I just don't see us going down. I was always convinced that this team was under achieving and was way too good to go down it was just that we had a manager for the first 25 games who had completely lost his way. Since then for the most part we have increasingly looked like the team I thought we should be on paper and some.

Of course I acknowledge that we could go down as that is a fact that can't be disputed. Given the way we are playing though and who we have left to play I just don't for one minute see it happening. Of all the sides down there for me we are the best team who also happen to be playing the best football at the most crucial stage of the season.

Before today Manchester City away was the toughest fixture we had remaining. Had you have asked 100 supporters what they expected from the game 90 would have said f*ck all. In the end we came with in minutes of securing a point which for me was the least we deserved. For fear of repeating myself given we have just played three teams in the top six, who all had plenty to play for, and won two and arguably should have won all three and that we have two sides left to play with nothing to play for and one side who will almost certainly be relegated by the time we play them, all at home, I just cannot see us not securing enough points.

Sleep easy tonight lads and lasses. We will be fine :-)

A good post.

Not bricking it fwiw, just recognise the danger. Points/games in hand wise - have we been in a more precarious position with 4 games to go?

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How people can disregard the concern as moronic is beyond me.

I genuinely feel for those that are really bricking it. I just don't see us going down. I was always convinced that this team was under achieving and was way too good to go down it was just that we had a manager for the first 25 games who had completely lost his way. Since then for the most part we have increasingly looked like the team I thought we should be on paper and some.

Of course I acknowledge that we could go down as that is a fact that can't be disputed. Given the way we are playing though and who we have left to play I just don't for one minute see it happening. Of all the sides down there for me we are the best team who also happen to be playing the best football at the most crucial stage of the season.

Before today Manchester City away was the toughest fixture we had remaining. Had you have asked 100 supporters what they expected from the game 90 would have said f*ck all. In the end we came with in minutes of securing a point which for me was the least we deserved. For fear of repeating myself given we have just played three teams in the top six, who all had plenty to play for, and won two and arguably should have won all three and that we have two sides left to play with nothing to play for and one side who will almost certainly be relegated by the time we play them, all at home, I just cannot see us not securing enough points.

Sleep easy tonight lads and lasses. We will be fine :-)

Totally agree. Not only was it imperative that we didn't get hammered today the fact is that we showed we are no pushovers. This was at a ground where almost nobody gets anything. If we could choose our 4 remaining fixtures then I don't think they would be too different to the ones we actually have.

We will be fine.

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Everyone thought we'd do QPR at home and look what happened there. The concern is warranted. 

I'm concerned too, but I think some are overdoing it a bit. Since then we've beaten Spurs away, beaten Liverpool at Wembley and dominated City away and were unlucky to not win. In all of those games we were comfortably the better team, especially the latter two.

 

We are shit at home though but hopefully we can get across the line.

 

 

The Spurs result was massive really, I know there's no guarenteed results would've panned out like they have but if we'd lost that we'd be in the bottom three now and that would be time to panic.

 

Winning at Spurs and Sunderland convinced me we'd be fine and I don't see why there should be massive panic when we were just a few minutes from getting our first points at City since 2007. 

 

We are playing very well atm and I'm sure that will translate into points against Everton, Burnley and West Ham.

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How people can disregard the concern as moronic is beyond me.

I genuinely feel for those that are really bricking it. I just don't see us going down. I was always convinced that this team was under achieving and was way too good to go down it was just that we had a manager for the first 25 games who had completely lost his way. Since then for the most part we have increasingly looked like the team I thought we should be on paper and some.

Of course I acknowledge that we could go down as that is a fact that can't be disputed. Given the way we are playing though and who we have left to play I just don't for one minute see it happening. Of all the sides down there for me we are the best team who also happen to be playing the best football at the most crucial stage of the season.

Before today Manchester City away was the toughest fixture we had remaining. Had you have asked 100 supporters what they expected from the game 90 would have said f*ck all. In the end we came with in minutes of securing a point which for me was the least we deserved. For fear of repeating myself given we have just played three teams in the top six, who all had plenty to play for, and won two and arguably should have won all three and that we have two sides left to play with nothing to play for and one side who will almost certainly be relegated by the time we play them, all at home, I just cannot see us not securing enough points.

Sleep easy tonight lads and lasses. We will be fine :-)

A good post.

Not bricking it fwiw, just recognise the danger. Points/games in hand wise - have we been in a more precarious position with 4 games to go?

 

 

12/13 I'd imagine as we hadn't beaten Sunderland 6-1 at that point.

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I'm not bricking it but I'm worried. A few mistakes in the next couple of games that cost us and then all of a sudden pressure is on big time and confidence is gone.

We're just about the only team down there that can afford a mistake or two though

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As worrying as the table appears, does anyone really see us failing to win one from the next four playing as we are?

 

No but I suppose the only worry is our defence is starting to ship 3 goals in games regularly now. That said 6 of them came against Manchester clubs with world class attackers like Mata, Rooney, Silva and Aguero.

 

It's fair to say West Ham and Burnley don't have those so I wouldn't be expecting to concede many goals against those two and we certainly have goals in our team now with how we're playing.

It's frustraiting because we put in a couple of sterling, mature defensive displays against Spurs and Liverpool. On the whole it wasn't awful today - as it was against QPR - rather it was individual errors responsible for each of their goals. However these errors seem.to have increased recently. So we can't really rely on clean-sheets, just need to focus on outscoring the opposition.

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