villalad21 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 18th cant see us picking up enough points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Results have helped tonight . . . a win against Sunderland and we'll be in a position of strength. Need to win that before I get my hopes up though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted March 4, 2015 Author VT Supporter Share Posted March 4, 2015 (edited) What a difference a couple of days makes!11th: 0.1%12th: 0.7%13th: 2.2%14th: 5.4%15th: 12.1%^^^ upper quartile16th: 18.2%17th: 22.6% == median, max likelihood18th: 20.8%vvv lower quartile19th: 14.1%20th: 3.8% Finish probabilities on Monday were:13th: 0.1%14th: 0.5%15th: 3.6%16th: 7.9%17th: 14.1%^^^ upper quartile18th: 22.1%19th: 30.5% == median, max likelihoodvvv lower quartile20th: 21.2% Edited March 4, 2015 by leviramsey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo985 Posted March 6, 2015 VT Supporter Share Posted March 6, 2015 I can't help but notice yoru rankings normally just predict us to finish where we currently are... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted March 6, 2015 Author VT Supporter Share Posted March 6, 2015 That's basically because the normal case for predictions of this type is no improvement in form relative to other clubs sufficient to dramatically improve or hurt position.Of course, if you're only looking at the central tendency, you're missing most of the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 I am sticking by my prediction of 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darrenm Posted March 6, 2015 Share Posted March 6, 2015 Can we get RRD graphs Levi? That would show the loading better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted March 14, 2015 Author VT Supporter Share Posted March 14, 2015 The Spurs/QPR game last weekend did affect things a little (as did another multi-goal game for us)...11th: 0.1%12th: 1.1%13th: 3.1%14th: 7.3%15th: 13.9%^^^ upper quartile16th: 19.5%17th: 23.0% == median, max likelihoodvvv lower quartile18th: 18.2%19th: 10.9%20th: 2.9%What a difference a couple of days makes!11th: 0.1%12th: 0.7%13th: 2.2%14th: 5.4%15th: 12.1%^^^ upper quartile16th: 18.2%17th: 22.6% == median, max likelihood18th: 20.8%vvv lower quartile19th: 14.1%20th: 3.8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dont_do_it_doug. Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I know it's not an exact science, but surely our chances of finishing 12th age higher than 1%? I'm aware also that the stats are completely oblivious to intangibles like confidence. I think we've about as much chance of finishing 12th as we do going down. I would prefer the former and would take something in between! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomaspg Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 i recon we will be fine with a bit of luck. another win or two in the next games to get us into a comfortable place on the table would be nice though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rodders0223 Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I know it's not an exact science, but surely our chances of finishing 12th age higher than 1%? I'm aware also that the stats are completely oblivious to intangibles like confidence. I think we've about as much chance of finishing 12th as we do going down. I would prefer the former and would take something in between! I admire your optimism! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 I think we have the worst group of promoted clubs from the championship ever, as such we should be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Results have helped tonight . . . a win against Sunderland and we'll be in a position of strength. Need to win that before I get my hopes up though. Got the win, and then some. QPR lost and looked atrocious. I genuinely do feel hopeful. Maybe we can push on to midtable. If we beat Swansea, then I shall revise my pre-season prediction of 17th or 18th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted March 14, 2015 Share Posted March 14, 2015 Got to be honest I'd be disappointed if we only finish 17th now, we can end the season with a flourish with some of the fixtures we have left and even get past 40 points which might get us to 12th or 13th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 I can't help but notice yoru rankings normally just predict us to finish where we currently are... 16th max likelyhood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfingers Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Just looking at the fixtures, with the QPR game possibly going to be put back towards the end of the season, we could play 4 of the last 5 games at home. Hulls run in is difficult, we will gain more points than them and Sunderland between now and the end of the season, that places us 15th minimum. West Brom also have a hard run of games. I'd like to think we could also finish ahead of two out of WBA, Everton & Palace, leaving us in 13th. The FA cup will also possibly impact our league finish, should we progress to the final. I predict us to finish 14th although don't write us off for 12th/13th. We are definitely going into the final phase of the season in form whereas others are drifting off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arj Guy Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Call me negative but I would take 17th place in a heartbeat. As long as it doesn't come down to the last day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterfingers Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 Only 3 games in April-Man City, Man U & Spurs away. Looks painful on paper & could suck us back in, adding pressure for the final month. I'm sure Tim will be up for the Spurs game, we could cause a shock there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jim Posted March 15, 2015 Share Posted March 15, 2015 14th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted March 17, 2015 Author VT Supporter Share Posted March 17, 2015 11th: 0.3%12th: 0.9%13th: 3.0%14th: 8.3%^^^ upper quartile15th: 27.7% == max likelihood16th: 24.9% == median17th: 18.1%vvv lower quartile18th: 11.2%19th: 4.7%20th: 0.9%11th: 0.1%12th: 1.1%13th: 3.1%14th: 7.3%15th: 13.9%^^^ upper quartile16th: 19.5%17th: 23.0% == median, max likelihoodvvv lower quartile18th: 18.2%19th: 10.9%20th: 2.9% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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