leviramsey Posted December 1, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted December 1, 2014 9th: 0.1%10th: 0.2%11th: 0.6%12th: 1.4%13th: 2.6%14th: 4.5%15th: 7.0%16th: 10.2%^^^ upper quartile17th: 13.9%18th: 16.8% == median19th: 20.9% == max likelihoodvvv lower quartile20th: 21.8%7th: 0.1%8th: 0.1%9th: 0.3%10th: 0.6%11th: 1.1%12th: 1.9%13th: 3.3%14th: 5.2%15th: 7.5%^^^ upper quartile16th: 11.0%17th: 14.9%18th: 18.3% == median, max likelihood19th: 19.9%vvv lower quartile20th: 15.8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted December 4, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted December 4, 2014 9th: 0.2%10th: 0.6%11th: 1.4%12th: 2.7%13th: 4.6%14th: 7.1%15th: 9.8%^^^ upper quartile16th: 13.1%17th: 15.6% == median, max likelihood18th: 17.2%vvv lower quartile19th: 16.0%20th: 11.7%9th: 0.1%10th: 0.2%11th: 0.6%12th: 1.4%13th: 2.6%14th: 4.5%15th: 7.0%16th: 10.2%^^^ upper quartile17th: 13.9%18th: 16.8% == median19th: 20.9% == max likelihoodvvv lower quartile20th: 21.8% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrackpotForeigner Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I don't get it. What are our % chances of finishing first? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 I don't get it. What are our % chances of finishing first? You'll need this to see them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted December 9, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted December 9, 2014 8th: 0.1%9th: 0.2%10th: 0.7%11th: 2.1%12th: 4.8%13th: 8.4%14th: 12.1%^^^ upper quartile15th: 14.7%16th: 16.8% == median, max likelihood17th: 15.9%vvv lower quartile18th: 13.4%19th: 7.9%20th: 2.9%9th: 0.2%10th: 0.6%11th: 1.4%12th: 2.7%13th: 4.6%14th: 7.1%15th: 9.8%^^^ upper quartile16th: 13.1%17th: 15.6% == median, max likelihood18th: 17.2%vvv lower quartile19th: 16.0%20th: 11.7% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted December 9, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted December 9, 2014 Disappointingly small improvement Levi. Is your machine working ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kidlewis Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Is it not because we've beaten teams who are likely to finish very low anyway? maybe if we beat united then something like that would throw us up the table a bit more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted December 9, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted December 9, 2014 Right now the expected table is:1. Man City L 2-0 home2. Chelsea L 3-0 away3. Man Utd4. West Ham D 0-0 away5. Southampton D 1-1 home6. Arsenal L 3-0 home7. Swansea8. Newcastle D 0-0 home9. Spurs L 2-1 home10. Everton L 3-0 away11. Liverpool W 1-0 away12. Stoke W 1-0 away13. Sunderland14. Palace W 1-0 away15. QPR L 2-0 away16. Villa17. WBA18. Hull W 2-1 home19. Burnley D 1-1 away20. Leicester W 2-1 homeSo against teams expected to finish above us, an aggregate of: 5 for, 16 againstAgainst teams below us: 5 for 3 againstLosing by multiple goals to QPR and Everton hurts us a lot, and beating Liverpool isn't as impressive as it looked at the time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted December 9, 2014 Share Posted December 9, 2014 Burnley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted December 18, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted December 18, 2014 9th: 0.1%10th: 0.3%11th: 0.8%12th: 1.8%13th: 3.2%14th: 5.7%15th: 8.7%^^^ upper quartile16th: 12.4%17th: 16.3%18th: 20.1% == median, max likelihoodvvv lower quartile19th: 19.6%20th: 11.0%8th: 0.1%9th: 0.2%10th: 0.7%11th: 2.1%12th: 4.8%13th: 8.4%14th: 12.1%^^^ upper quartile15th: 14.7%16th: 16.8% == median, max likelihood17th: 15.9%vvv lower quartile18th: 13.4%19th: 7.9%20th: 2.9% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted December 28, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted December 28, 2014 (Catching up a bit... for the benefit of anyone who wants to track these things, the Monte Carlo as it stood at the dawn of Boxing Day)8th: 0.1%9th: 0.3%10th: 1.1%11th: 2.4%12th: 4.8%13th: 8.0%14th: 12.1%^^^ upper quartile15th: 15.0%16th: 16.3% == median, max likelihood17th: 15.7%vvv lower quartile18th: 13.1%19th: 8.7%20th: 2.4%(will update for post-Boxing Day in a few hours)9th: 0.1%10th: 0.3%11th: 0.8%12th: 1.8%13th: 3.2%14th: 5.7%15th: 8.7%^^^ upper quartile16th: 12.4%17th: 16.3%18th: 20.1% == median, max likelihoodvvv lower quartile19th: 19.6%20th: 11.0% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted December 28, 2014 Author VT Supporter Share Posted December 28, 2014 9th: 0.1%10th: 0.3%11th: 0.8%12th: 1.8%13th: 3.9%14th: 7.2%15th: 11.9%^^^ upper quartile16th: 15.5%17th: 18.9% == median18th: 19.4% == max likelihoodvvv lower quartile19th: 14.8%20th: 5.4%(Catching up a bit... for the benefit of anyone who wants to track these things, the Monte Carlo as it stood at the dawn of Boxing Day)8th: 0.1%9th: 0.3%10th: 1.1%11th: 2.4%12th: 4.8%13th: 8.0%14th: 12.1%^^^ upper quartile15th: 15.0%16th: 16.3% == median, max likelihood17th: 15.7%vvv lower quartile18th: 13.1%19th: 8.7%20th: 2.4% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoD Posted December 28, 2014 Share Posted December 28, 2014 Hopefully we can pick up at least 5 points in the next 3 games and start improving those estimates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AVTuco Posted December 28, 2014 VT Supporter Share Posted December 28, 2014 Can you make some small adjustments to the parameters of your model Levi so that these simulations would be more positive please, thank you. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 ....on our arses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oaks Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Between 11th and 15th shock and horror. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimzk5 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Where we are now or a place lower on 42 points. The difference between finishing top half and where we are is winning consistently at home and we can't do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villalad21 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 I still stand by my 17th prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 (edited) I still stand by my 17th prediction. I'd take that now if it was offered. Edited December 30, 2014 by TRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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