mickjacobjr Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted January 24, 2015 Share Posted January 24, 2015 How many snookers do we need to win the title? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted February 6, 2015 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 6, 2015 (edited) 11th: 0.2%12th: 0.8%13th: 3.7%14th: 8.2%15th: 13.4%^^^ upper quartile16th: 17.3% == max likelihood17th: 18.4% == median18th: 16.9%vvv lower quartile19th: 13.5%20th: 7.6% 10th: 0.1%11th: 0.5%12th: 1.7%13th: 4.3%14th: 7.7%15th: 11.1%^^^ upper quartile16th: 14.1%17th: 15.9% == median18th: 17.4% == max likelihoodvvv lower quartile19th: 16.0%20th: 11.2% Edited February 6, 2015 by leviramsey 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 We are saved!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tomaszk Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 11th: 0.2%12th: 0.8%13th: 3.7%14th: 8.2%15th: 13.4%^^^ upper quartile16th: 17.3% == max likelihood17th: 18.4% == median18th: 16.9%vvv lower quartile19th: 13.5%20th: 7.6% 10th: 0.1%11th: 0.5%12th: 1.7%13th: 4.3%14th: 7.7%15th: 11.1%^^^ upper quartile16th: 14.1%17th: 15.9% == median18th: 17.4% == max likelihoodvvv lower quartile19th: 16.0%20th: 11.2%Settles me reading these but I do I think we're going this year sadly. We're too bad. Showing my lack of stats understanding here...how can 16th be max likelihood when its has 17.3% and 17th has 18.4%? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 (edited) NB - the difference between 17.3% (16th) and 16.9% (18th) is teensy, so presumably we are still in extreme peril? Edited February 7, 2015 by briny_ear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted February 7, 2015 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 7, 2015 11th: 0.2%12th: 0.8%13th: 3.7%14th: 8.2%15th: 13.4%^^^ upper quartile16th: 17.3% == max likelihood17th: 18.4% == median18th: 16.9%vvv lower quartile19th: 13.5%20th: 7.6% 10th: 0.1%11th: 0.5%12th: 1.7%13th: 4.3%14th: 7.7%15th: 11.1%^^^ upper quartile16th: 14.1%17th: 15.9% == median18th: 17.4% == max likelihoodvvv lower quartile19th: 16.0%20th: 11.2%Settles me reading these but I do I think we're going this year sadly. We're too bad.Showing my lack of stats understanding here...how can 16th be max likelihood when its has 17.3% and 17th has 18.4%?Basically, in the table that came up the most often, we were 16th. As the season gets closer to an end, that's going to become the more reliable prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kingman Posted February 7, 2015 Share Posted February 7, 2015 (edited) Im surprised people can predict who we are goin to beat, when most are struggling to predict when we will score! Edited February 7, 2015 by Kingman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted February 14, 2015 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 14, 2015 It's been crazy busy for me this week. Have I missed any happenings in the world of Villa?In the meantime, for completeness, the finish probabilities as of Monday, February 9 (aka before Hull)11th: 0.1%12th: 1.0%13th: 4.9%14th: 10.2%15th: 16.2%^^^ upper quartile16th: 18.0% == median, max likelihood17th: 18.0%18th: 15.3%vvv lower quartile19th: 11.1%20th: 5.2%I'll have the current probabilities in a little bit11th: 0.2%12th: 0.8%13th: 3.7%14th: 8.2%15th: 13.4%^^^ upper quartile16th: 17.3% == max likelihood17th: 18.4% == median18th: 16.9%vvv lower quartile19th: 13.5%20th: 7.6% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted February 14, 2015 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 14, 2015 And the current probabilities:12th: 0.2%13th: 0.7%14th: 2.4%15th: 5.2%16th: 9.8%^^^ upper quartile17th: 16.8%18th: 22.2% == median19th: 27.0% == max likelihoodvvv lower quartile20th: 15.7%In the meantime, for completeness, the finish probabilities as of Monday, February 9 (aka before Hull)11th: 0.1%12th: 1.0%13th: 4.9%14th: 10.2%15th: 16.2%^^^ upper quartile16th: 18.0% == median, max likelihood17th: 18.0%18th: 15.3%vvv lower quartile19th: 11.1%20th: 5.2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HanoiVillan Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Wow, that loss to Hull didn't do us any favours did it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Relegated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zhan_Zhuang Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Not now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Guy on one of the other threads said we'd be safe with weeks to go with Sherwood as boss. I'd love that to happen but think it will go to the last game either way, would love to be proved wrong of course. Anyway happy to take the bet with the poster, 20 quid that we're not mathematically safe before the Burnley game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudevillaisnice Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Think we are down now but hope sherwood can prove me wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
briny_ear Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 (edited) Europe Will have to do that via the FA cup now. Even maximum points from our remaining games would only give us 61 points, which wouldn't have got a premier league europa league place in any of the last 3 seasons. Edited February 14, 2015 by briny_ear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCJonah Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Relegated If we are its mainly down to the best manager we've had in 30 years. Luckily though we've given ourselves a chance and may just scrape it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarewsEyebrowDesigner Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 19th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
P3te Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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