Enda

I downloaded the data for the past ten years and did a quick analysis on how teams who survived like us have performed the next year. (Please tell me if you catch any errors in my code.) Last year we finished 17th, with 35 points. The fact of the matter is teams that finished 17th in the prior season have had a hard time staying up. In the last ten years, there's obviously ten cases where a team finished 17th. The reality is the situation is that from this sample, there was a 50% chance the team that finished 17th got relegated. The worst possible scenario of going from 17th to 20th was a very common occurrence -- it even happened Villa :(. It also happened to West Ham (2011), Wolves (2012), QPR (2013), and Sunderland (2017). That's all just in the past decade. Even if a team managed to avoid relegation, moving up the table was hard. No team, not one, managed a top-half finish. The best effort was West Brom (2015), who finished 13th. Put starkly, if you finished 17th you were five times more likely to finish 20th than 13th. So, statistically, 13th would be a very good achievement for us this year - such a bounce has only happened once in the past decade. Talk of 10th-12th would be doing far better than any 17th-placed team has done in recent years. With the right transfers it's not out of the realm of possibility, but it would be a Manager of the Year-level of performance. That's for teams that finished 17th, what about teams that finished on 35 points? I have bad news. First, and everyone knew this, we were lucky to stay up with 35 points. It's rare you stay up with that few, as teams have gone down with as many as 39 points. Staying up on 35 points has only happened once in the past decade (West Ham, 2010). They were relegated the next season, coming last, and finishing seven points short of safety. A similar thing happened with Hull the previous year, relegated after surviving on 35 points. In fact I can't find anyone who stayed up after only getting 35 points the previous season. There was a bigger gap between midtable (Burnley in 10th, 54 points, 17 points ahead of us) than midtable and Champions League (Chelsea, 66 points, 14 points ahead of Burnley). We are were way adrift. So while we have our big transfer budget working for us, we also have the reality that last year we really were quite poor. There are lots of reasons to be optimistic this season, but do try to keep a bit of perspective.

I don't think we need a third central midfielder against a team that lost to Fleetwood Town two days ago. Full strength with two forwards for me. Steer Guilbert Konsa Engels Targett Trez McGinn Luiz Grealish Watkins Samatta

That sign still makes me laugh 10-15 years later.

Selecting on outcomes. Nobody was sure, in advance, whether Maupay or Wesley would score more goals last season. That we can look back and say Maupay was probably a better purchase is... well, not saying much. Tells us exactly nothing about Benrahma versus Traore.

He was top scorer for me one year in FM. On only ten grand a week. I loved him. In real life? He's never scored.

Assuming he’s fit I’d start Freddie both matches. If he’s a better player, Cash can earn his spot over the next month or two.

I think we'll survive, but in fairness the bookies are putting us solidly in a relegation scrap. And they're rarely far off.

No chance. Beye, Balaban, McCormack, Richards, N’Zogbia.

Off-topic but Tuanzebe is almost exactly the same age as Keinan Davis (3 months gap). Who’d you rather in the squad?

Percy hasn’t reported on man going to the moon though.

He’s a professional footballer doing his job professionally. It’s not his fault the club offered him a lucrative contract Fair play to him.

In fairness Axel is just a name I threw out there. I agree with your assessment of having a senior head in there. Someone in the mould of James Chester would make me much more comfortable.

I know it’s a big if but assuming we get Rashica then we’ll have Grealish and Rashica on the wings backed up by Trez and AEG (fine as squad players), with the option of playing Ollie out there and Big Wes up front if really needed. That’s very well stocked, so I don’t see two wingers coming in. If Grealish is out wide though, I can see us dropping another £20m on a central midfielder.

Imagine Mings tears a ligament on the first day of the season. That’s the reason I would rather a new CB (Tuanzebe, anyone?) than Buendia.

Watkins surely bought as a centre forward. It certainly looks like we’re trying to sign Rashica but I can’t see us bringing in Edouard now. Itll be Jack on the left, Ollie in the middle, and Rashica on right; unless DS still fancies one of Trez/El Ghazi to do a job meaning Jack will get to play his number 8 role.

I don't speak for bickster, but Northern Ireland suffered a civil war for 30 years. It's not sensationalist to fear that will return.

Watkins Grealish Rashica

BS. When we signed him he was going nearly 1-in-2, firing his club to the top of their league. Same club we got Benteke from. Not saying it’s worked out for him at VP but saying he wouldn’t cut it at Barnsley or Rangers is ridiculous OTT nonsense. He was scoring against Liverpool in the CL less than a year ago.

Have we definitely tabled a bid? Has it been conifirmed?

At those wages he could end up at the Hawthorns.

Evergreen post.

Just to add: this is a very rough guess. His record is like Teemu Pukki and Neal Maupay, who both ended up with 10-11 goals last year... but his record is also a bit like Billy Sharp or Matej Vydra who only managed 2 or 3 when they went up. But something in the region of 9-12 seems like a good expectation from him.

In his season at Villa, Tammy Abraham scored 26 goals in 40 matches. Last season, Ollie Watkins scored 26 goals in 50 matches. So using Tammy as a very rough benchmark, we can expect Ollie to score something in the region of 12 goals next year. Something in the region of 7-8 goals will be a poor return, anything over 14-15 will be a very good year.