Rugeley Villa Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: It's not bullshit research, it's science poorly reported. If they didn't research, we'd think millions of smokers died of cancer due to bad luck. But if you know 20% of people that die of cancer did so directly due to smoking, you might take a decision to live life with your wife, kids and friends a bit longer and dump the fags. It gives you an informed choice. That a bit of research might be given a 'sexy' precis by someone looking for publicity, or a scary headline by shitty newspapers is a shame. But personally, I'd rather be informed. I now 'know' that booze, fags, ket and being fat are more damaging than roasties. I'm content with that, my only vice in that list is roasties. The media love to scare people. People love a drama. ...and as Hanoi says, you're gonna die of something, it's just nice to be informed. I'm all up for research but what I meant to say was I wish they would be a bit more specific . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 If anything they're too specific 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 8 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said: I'm all up for research but what I meant to say was I wish they would be a bit more specific . You wish the scientist doing the research would be more specific? or the FSA? or the media? UN & WHO combined codex Quote Acrylamide causes cancer in laboratory animals in high doses. As a result, acrylamide is considered a potential human carcinogen. However, it is not clear whether acrylamide causes cancer in humans, at the much lower levels of exposure from its presence in food. Limited epidemiological studies of people exposed to acrylamide in the workplace and through the diet have been conducted. The studies did not show increased cancer risk with acrylamide exposure. A quick scan read suggests someone with a broadly normal diet and broadly normal fitness has nothing to worry about from toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 38 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: It's not bullshit research, it's science poorly reported. I'm not sure it's the media that's at fault on this story. It would appear to be the FSA and their 'Go for Gold' campaign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, snowychap said: FSA and their 'Go for Gold' campaign. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 (edited) Well either way if it's going to take you 300 slices of burnt toast a day to put you at risk then say that. Everyday something new causes cancer. Is that proper research or just guess work? Edited January 23, 2017 by Rugeley Villa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, snowychap said: I'm not sure it's the media that's at fault on this story. It would appear to be the FSA and their 'Go for Gold' campaign. Are you suggesting the media don't have the same access to google that I do? Took me seconds to find the 2002 research, starting from the FSA webpage on acrylamide. The FSA webpage says it's not proven but a precautionary extrapolation of results from research over the last 14 years. Why they've then bothered with the public health film I'm not really sure. The story is 'meh', but people love this sort of stuff. Gives brexit types the chance to say '**** scientists can **** off, my nan ate crisp toasties for 93 years and died when a salad delivery lorry run her over'. The nugget of info to take from this? There might be a link, so might be sensible to eat more raw carrot and less crisps toasties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just now, Rugeley Villa said: Well either way if it's going to take you 300 slices of burnt toast to put you at risk then say that. Everyday something new causes cancer. Is that proper research or just guess work? How dangerous is burnt toast? Quote This piece was originally posted by Sir David Spiegelhalter on the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication. We have republished it here with his kind permission. The Food Standards Agency (FSA) today launched its Go for Gold campaign, encouraging us not to burn our roast or fried vegetables and keep our oven chips at a nice golden colour. The idea is to reduce people’s intake of acrylamide, a chemical that is “created when many foods, particularly starchy foods like potatoes and bread, are cooked for long periods at high temperatures, such as when baking, frying, grilling, toasting and roasting.” (FSA) Acrylamide can be, in large doses, a very nasty substance. It is used as an industrial sealant, and workers with very high exposures suffered serious neurotoxicity. Very high doses have been shown to increase the risk of mice getting cancer. The IARC (International Agency for Research on Cancer) considers it a ‘probable human carcinogen’, putting it in the same category as many chemicals, red meat, being a hairdresser and shift-work. However, there is no good evidence of harm from humans consuming acrylamide in their diet: Cancer Research UK say that “At the moment, there is no strong evidence linking acrylamide and cancer.” This is not for want of trying. A massive report from the European Food Standards Agency (EFSA) lists 16 studies and 36 publications, but concludes In the epidemiological studies available to date, AA intake was not associated with an increased risk of most common cancers, including those of the GI or respiratory tract, breast, prostate and bladder. A few studies suggested an increased risk for renal cell, and endometrial (in particular in never-smokers) and ovarian cancer, but the evidence is limited and inconsistent. Moreover, one study suggested a lower survival in non-smoking women with breast cancer with a high pre-diagnostic exposure to AA but more studies are necessary to confirm this result. (p185) Remember that each study is testing an association with a long list of cancers, so using the standard criteria for statistical significance, we would expect 1 in 20 of these associations to be positive by chance alone. A standard response might be the over-used cliché: ‘absence of evidence is not evidence of absence’. If there has been a huge effort to find an association, and none has been found, it’s true that this may not be direct evidence of the absence of an effect (though this can never be proved anyway). But it can be considered evidence of something that is not very important. Given the numbers provided by EFSA and FSA, it is perhaps unsurprising that no association has been shown in large studies. EFSA calculated a BMDL10 of 170 µg/kg body weight/day — this means it is unlikely that exposures at this level would cause tumours in mice (technically it is the lower end of a confidence interval for the dose that would cause 10% increased tumours). They then compare this with human acrylamide exposure obtained from multiple detailed dietary surveys, which for adults has an average of 0.56 and a ‘high’ of 1.1 µg/kg/day, in the sense that 97.5% of people consume less than this. The BMDL10 is then divided by these exposures to give the ‘margin of exposure’, which rather confusingly end up being high for low risks and low for high risks. So, for example, adults with the highest consumption of acrylamide could consume 160 times as much and still only be at a level that toxicologists think unlikely to cause increased tumours in mice (that's essentially what the ‘margin of exposure’ means). This all seems rather reassuring, and may explain why it’s been so difficult to observe any effect of acrylamide in diet. But, for cancer, toxicology committees demand a rather arbitrary margin of exposure of 10,000 before considering the chemical essentially acceptable. Reactions to the FSA’s Go for Gold campaign may range from the extremes of encouraging obsessive concern in the worried-well, to irate editorials on yet another intrusion from the ‘nanny state’. More worrying, people may just consider this yet another scare story from scientists, and lead them to dismiss truly important warnings about, say, the harms from obesity. Cancer Research UK say that “researchers estimate that overweight and obesity are behind around 18,000 cases of cancer each year in the UK”. In stark contrast, the FSA provide no estimate of the current harm caused by acrylamide, nor the benefit from any reduction due to people following their advice. To be honest, I am not convinced it is appropriate to launch a public campaign on this basis. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 4 minutes ago, chrisp65 said: Are you suggesting the media don't have the same access to google that I do? No. I'm suggesting that when the bloke from the FSA was on telly promoting his organization - sorry, I mean promoting his organization's campaign - then he had an opportunty to put all of this in to perspective. I didn't see him take that opportunity. No doubt it'll be regurgitated as 'the recommendations' in the future along with the 150 minutes of activity thing, the work improves mental health thing and recommended limits for drinking that all become mantra once they've been repeated enough. Should the media have asked questions? Sure. Would they have got anything out of the FSA man than he otherwise wanted to put out there? I don't think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NurembergVillan Posted January 23, 2017 Moderator Share Posted January 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, snowychap said: How dangerous is burnt toast? This was the piece I read but it was on Twitter, on my phone, so copy and paste would have been too much of a pain in the hoop. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dAVe80 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Doesn't bother me anyway. I like my toast, like I like my men. Pale and limp. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rugeley Villa Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, dAVe80 said: Doesn't bother me anyway. I like my toast, like I like my men. Pale and limp. Same here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Xela Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 9 minutes ago, dAVe80 said: Doesn't bother me anyway. I like my toast, like I like my men. Pale and limp. I like my toast, like I like my men too! With peanut butter and shoved up my bum Sorry, I appear to have turned into Jim Davidson overnight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paddywhack Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 My nan died of cancer, but annoyingly I can't remember if she liked her toast burnt or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, dAVe80 said: Doesn't bother me anyway. I like my toast, like I like my men. Pale and limp. As opposed to dark and rather hard to swallow? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 Just got in from work put the TV on whilst I have me dinner ...school of rock is on .... oh well I thought I'll give it a go and almost immediately off they go to a musical montage scene to show the kids inspiration or whatever it is and what do they use to generate this inspiration , the bloody Ramones who've sold more T-shirts to under 6's than they have records thats the end of that film then ... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dAVe80 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 (edited) 10 hours ago, tonyh29 said: Just got in from work put the TV on whilst I have me dinner ...school of rock is on .... oh well I thought I'll give it a go and almost immediately off they go to a musical montage scene to show the kids inspiration or whatever it is and what do they use to generate this inspiration , the bloody Ramones who've sold more T-shirts to under 6's than they have records thats the end of that film then ... The first album reached the 500,000 sales mark, 38 years after its release, so it's a bit of a slow burner. For the young 'ens though, Blitzkrieg Bop has 10 million plays on Spotify. Edited January 24, 2017 by dAVe80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted January 23, 2017 Share Posted January 23, 2017 3 hours ago, snowychap said: recommended limits for drinking that all become mantra once they've been repeated enough. maybe there should be recommended limits for crispy toast? 14 crisp toasts per week for women, 21 crisp toasts per week for men. then some more research in a few years to find we under-estimated the danger of crispy toast to men. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowychap Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 1 hour ago, ender4 said: then some more research in a few years to find we under-estimated the danger of crispy toast to men. I'm pretty sure I saw one of the people responsible for the recommended limit being interviewed a few years back and they said the original figures were just plucked out of thin air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyh29 Posted January 24, 2017 Share Posted January 24, 2017 2 hours ago, ender4 said: maybe there should be recommended limits for crispy toast? 14 crisp toasts per week for women, 21 crisp toasts per week for men. then some more research in a few years to find we under-estimated the danger of crispy toast to men. acrylamide has yet to be shown to cause cancer in humans so maybe the headline should have been that we need to stop feeding burnt toast to animals ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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