U.S. Politics

[peterms]

So Trump seems to have told Netenyahu about the withdrawal before his own lot.  It will come as a surprise to the US army, who are currently still building illegal bases inside Syria.

Something about trying to get some credit at home for bringing back troops, and also playing to Turkey?  Wonder what the Kurds think about leaving Turkey a free hand.

[OutByEaster?]

Is this part of the ongoing falling out with the Saudis?

 

[LondonLax]

8 minutes ago, OutByEaster? said:

Is this part of the ongoing falling out with the Saudis?

 

Turkey hates the support the US troops have been giving the Kurds in north west Syria. They worry it will strengthen the Kurdish population just across the boarder inside Turkey. 

Trump announced this withdrawal after getting off the phone to Erdogan. 

Who knows what was said in that conversation.  

[peterms]

7 hours ago, TheAuthority said:

Insipid, hypocrite, white privileged failure Paul Ryan (the one who has been jacking off to Ann Ryand under the covers since he was 14) will make his farewell speech to Congress today.

Good riddance to this pathetic piece of slimy worm ridden filth who has made the lives of millions of hard working people much worse whilst enriching the wealthy and privileged.

Utter scumbag.

I dunno, it's maybe just me, but there's something about those ears that provokes images of him being nailed to a tree by them.

 

[TheAuthority]

1 minute ago, peterms said:

I dunno, it's maybe just me, but there's something about those ears that provokes images of him being nailed to a tree by them.

 

I'm with you.

[HanoiVillan]

Paul Ryan’s long con

'House Speaker Paul Ryan’s legacy can be summed up in just one number: $343 billion.

That’s the increase between the deficit for fiscal year 2015 and fiscal year 2018— that is, the difference between the fiscal year before Ryan became speaker of the House and the fiscal year in which he retired.

If the economy had fallen into recession between 2015 and 2018, Ryan’s record would be understandable. But it didn’t. In fact, growth quickened and the labor market tightened — which means deficits should’ve fallen. Indeed, that’s exactly what happened in each of the five years preceding Ryan’s speakership; from 2011 to 2015, annual deficits fell each year.

As he prepares to leave office, Ryan says that debt reduction is one of those things “I wish we could have gotten done.” Ryan, the man with the single most power over the federal budget in recent years, sounds like a bystander, as if he watched laws happen rather than made them happen.

To understand the irony and duplicity of that statement, you need to understand Ryan’s career. After the profligacy of the George W. Bush years and the rise of the Tea Party, Ryan rocketed to the top ranks of his party by warning that mounting deficits under President Obama threatened the “most predictable economic crisis we have ever had in this country.” Absent the fiscal responsibility that would accompany Republican rule, we were facing nothing less than “the end of the American dream.”''

This is just the start of a long and politely savage beshitting of Paul Ryan's legacy by Ezra Klein that I fully recommend: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/12/10/17929460/paul-ryan-speaker-retiring-debt-deficits-trump

 

[sne]

This happening and Stock market hit 1-year low.

Quote

The Federal Reserve has raised its key interest rate for the fourth time this year to reflect the US economy's continued strength, but signalled that it expects to slow its rate hikes next year.

Yesterday's quarter-point increase, to a range of 2.25pc to 2.5pc, lifted the Fed's benchmark rate to its highest point since 2008. It will mean higher borrowing costs for many consumers and businesses.

The Fed's move came despite president Donald Trump's attacks in recent weeks on its rate hikes and on chairman Jerome Powell personally.

The president has complained that the moves are threatening the economy.

Mr Powell said Mr Trump's tweets and statements would have no bearing on the central bank's policymaking.

Yesterday, the Fed said "some" further gradual rate increases were likely. Previously, it referred to "further gradual increases". Its updated forecast projects two rate hikes next year, down from three predicted in September.

US stocks had been sharply higher before the announcement, but began falling afterwards and then accelerated into a plunge during Mr Powell's news conference. The Dow Jones industrial average was down about 400 points soon after the news conference ended. But bond prices rose, sending yields lower.

Some analysts say the Fed may want to pause in its credit-tightening to assess how the economy fares in the coming months. Mr Powell suggested that the Fed might be poised to slow or halt its rate hikes to avoid weakening the economy.

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/north-america/president-trump/fed-defies-trump-to-hike-key-rate-again-37643668.html

[peterms]

14 hours ago, OutByEaster? said:

Is this part of the ongoing falling out with the Saudis?

 

The Saudis won't like it, but I struggle to see why this would be driven by disapproval of their recent actions, because Trump has been completely unconcerned by that, and anyway it would seem to be quite out of proportion to the perceived importance of Saudi actions.  Anyway, the Saudis spend lots of money staying at Trump hotels, which seems to be the single biggest driver of US foreign policy in the last year or two.

The Israelis won't like it either.

The US has just sold missiles to Turkey:

This seems to be connected to trying to keep Turkey closer to the US than to Russia, but again that would seem to be a consideration for the military advisers and not something you'd expect Trump to ponder.

I really don't understand what's happening here.

[Brumerican]

6 hours ago, peterms said:

 

I really don't understand what's happening here.

I imagine that Putin would very much like to see a huge ISIS resurgence.

 

On a side note you have to love the replies to Ryan's farewell.

 

[peterms]

17 minutes ago, Brumerican said:

I imagine that Putin would very much like to see a huge ISIS resurgence.

It's not Putin that wants to see Syria weak, divided, Balkanised with Isis and other warring factions keeping things unsettled.  It's the US, Turkey, Saudi, Israel.  That's where Isis have been getting their funds, arms, equipment, medical attention.  Putin's interest is more in having a strong and unified state which will be a dependable ally.

[villakram]

22 minutes ago, peterms said:

It's not Putin that wants to see Syria weak, divided, Balkanised with Isis and other warring factions keeping things unsettled.  It's the US, Turkey, Saudi, Israel.  That's where Isis have been getting their funds, arms, equipment, medical attention.  Putin's interest is more in having a strong and unified state which will be a dependable ally.

and not have all sorts of politics and other things creep up through the Caucasus.

[villakram]

Bringing the troops home and now Trump threatening to veto the stopgap funding bill over the wall. Looks like he's firming up the base prior to the Dems taking control of the House.

[tonyh29]

13 minutes ago, peterms said:

It's not Putin that wants to see Syria weak, divided, Balkanised with Isis and other warring factions keeping things unsettled.  It's the US, Turkey, Saudi, Israel.  That's where Isis have been getting their funds, arms, equipment, medical attention.  Putin's interest is more in having a strong and unified state which will be a dependable ally.

that's not strictly true  , CAR published a report in 2017 that showed

Around 90 per cent of weapons and ammunition (97 per cent and 87 per cent, respectively) deployed by IS forces are Warsaw Pact calibres—
originating primarily in China, Russia, and Eastern European producer states.

NATO-calibre weapons and ammunition are far less prevalent, comprising 3 per cent and 13 per cent of the total, respectively; although these proportions
are low, IS forces captured significant quantities of NATO weaponry during initial assaults on Iraqi forces in 2014.

 

 

[Brumerican]

22 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

that's not strictly true  , CAR published a report in 2017 that showed

 

 

I'll repeat , Russia would very much like to see an ISIS resurgence. 

The idea that Putin gives a shit about allies and stability is laughable.

Edited December 20, 2018 by Brumerican

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Brumerican said:

I'll repeat , Russia would very much like to see an ISIS resurgence. 

The idea that Putin gives a shit about allies and stability is laughable.

erm Chechnya says Hi

[Brumerican]

2 minutes ago, bickster said:

erm Chechnya says Hi

Hi Chechnya.

[peterms]

31 minutes ago, tonyh29 said:

that's not strictly true  , CAR published a report in 2017 that showed

I'm talking about where IS got them, not where they were manufactured.  A BBC report on the CAR thing you linked says

Quote

...It emerged that the material had been sold - legally - to the governments of the United States and Saudi Arabia. It was then shipped through Turkey.

The destination was northern Syria and the opposition groups (which the US and Saudi Arabia supported) fighting President Bashar al-Assad.

The intention was never for the ammunition to find its way to IS but somewhere along the way it was diverted.

This ammunition was found in Tikrit, Ramadi, Falluja and now Mosul - all places where it has been used to fight the US-backed Iraqi forces.

The speed with which IS was getting this material was startling - sometimes only two months from leaving the factory.

"If you supply weapons and ammunition not only to non-state actors but to non-state actors in a very complex interlocked conflict then the risk of diversion is very, very high," says Mr Bevan...

It's been known for years that IS have been getting vast amounts of supplies which were supposedly intended for "moderate rebels", but the supplies kept on coming.  The US embassy in Libya was apparently co-odinating supplies to various groups in Syria, Turkey is a main route, and the areas where the US or Turkey are active have been safe from Syrian attack on the supply chains.

[peterms]

30 minutes ago, Brumerican said:

I'll repeat , Russia would very much like to see an ISIS resurgence. 

The idea that Putin gives a shit about allies and stability is laughable.

Could you say why you think Russia wants an IS resurgence? 

And given that the situation in Syria has been stabilised only since Russia became involved, and because of their presence, why do you say Russia doesn't care about doing the exact thing which it has spent a lot of time and effort on achieving?

[Brumerican]

3 minutes ago, peterms said:

Could you say why you think Russia wants an IS resurgence? 

And given that the situation in Syria has been stabilised only since Russia became involved, and because of their presence, why do you say Russia doesn't care about doing the exact thing which it has spent a lot of time and effort on achieving?

It's blatantly obvious but what's the point  ? Aren't you still siding with Putin over Salisbury ?

 

[OutByEaster?]

I must admit, I can't see why Putin would want ISIS to destabilise Syria.

Russia has spent a lot of time and money on re-stabilising the country under Assad. It needs more allies in the region and it feels it can work with him - why would they suddenly stop that to support a group making trouble in one corner of the country. We've at best turned a blind eye to ISIS (and more likely funded and equipped them) in an effort to unsettle Assad, but it hasn't worked and we've given up on it.

Syria is Putin's big win, why would he sabotage his own success?