U.S. Politics

[blandy]

6 minutes ago, peterms said:

Those posts neither say nor imply what you said, ie that I think the US did it or nothing happened.  You made it up.

That's how they read to me, Peter. I read them as being sarcasticly written, and clearly implying that you felt Russia/Syria didn't do it and so therefore either the attacks didn't happoen or they were done by the US or someone with a nod from the US to "instigate US further involvement. They still read that way to me. I didn't make it up, but clearly from what you now say, I've misunderstood your words and for that I apologise.

I think you're saying the attack happened and it was done by the Rebels, on themselves? is that right? It's all a false flag that the Russians somehow knew a few days in advance that the Rebels were going to do, so as to involve the Americans a bit more, by blaming it on Assad? - still in line with Nick Griffin, the Russian troll factories, the crazies and the tin foil hat wearers, that theory.

[peterms]

4 minutes ago, blandy said:

That's how they read to me, Peter. I read them as being sarcasticly written, and clearly implying that you felt Russia/Syria didn't do it and so therefore either the attacks didn't happoen or they were done by the US or someone with a nod from the US to "instigate US further involvement. They still read that way to me. I didn't make it up, but clearly from what you now say, I've misunderstood your words and for that I apologise.

Well, they probably do read sarcastically.  I'm incredulous that the story can be so easily and quickly believed, when it would be an utterly mad thing for Assad to do (and I'm sure there will have been discussions between the Russians and Assad about how to conduct the conflict, including the dangers of strengthening international opposition).  I certainly think the aim is to draw the US back in to the conflict, and I also think that the possibility of this being an outcome must be evident to pretty much everyone.  That doesn't mean it will be the outcome, but it is very obviously a possible outcome that many will be lobbying for, both inside the US and elsewhere. 

4 minutes ago, blandy said:

I think you're saying the attack happened and it was done by the Rebels, on themselves? is that right? It's all a false flag that the Russians somehow knew a few days in advance that the Rebels were going to do, so as to involve the Americans a bit more, by blaming it on Assad? - still in line with Nick Griffin, the Russian troll factories, the crazies and the tin foil hat wearers, that theory.

It's not an attack "on themselves".  It seems to be an attack on the civilian population.  That's the population that the "rebels" are preventing from leaving, and shooting if they try to escape.  The prisoners who have been used as slave labour to dig the underground tunnels.  These "rebels" have no thought for the welfare of the civilian population unless they are actively supporting their group, and the idea that they simply wouldn't kill them if it might bring about an intervention from the US is just naive.

Russia announced days ago that it was aware that something like this was in preparation, presumably via intercepted communications.  It certainly fits with the idea of a last-ditch attempt to retrieve a lost situation.  There are reports that there are splits in Jaysh al-Islam between those who want to negotiate an exit and those who wanted to fight on, and it may be that it's something done by a dissident group within them, as they say happened previously when they used CWs against the Kurds.  They have the means, the opportunity, and the motive.  Against that, Assad has the means and the opportunity, but absolutely not a motive to use a militarily ineffective weapon against the population the army are in the process of liberating, at a time the battle has pretty much been completely won in that area, at the risk of mobilising very significant external forces against him.  It would be not only pointless, but self-defeating.

It is simply so unlikely that I struggle to see how people can so easily believe it.  And the routine trotting out of the "tinfoil" cliche when people question the evidently flawed official account is simply baffling.

[blandy]

How did they get helicopters to drop the bombs? I completely disagree that there’s no motive for Syrian forces to use them, either. At a time when they were pushing for the rebels to surrender after all the heavy bombardment, a spot of recreational gassing is just the final push to tip the balance. Why would someone about to concede, instead suddenly decide to magic some helicopters and planes they don’t have to drop CWs on themselves and the people around them? Further, if the Russians knew it was going to happen why not share the specifics? It looks like another example of Russia covering for Assad’s repeated use of CWs, as evidenced on multiple occasions by UN investigators 

[maqroll]

The FBI has just raided Michael Cohen's office. Trump is done for.

[peterms]

3 hours ago, blandy said:

How did they get helicopters to drop the bombs?

Perhaps an investigation could establish whether bombs were dropped.  OPCW would need to visit the site, though - last time they didn't do so.

3 hours ago, blandy said:

I completely disagree that there’s no motive for Syrian forces to use them, either. At a time when they were pushing for the rebels to surrender after all the heavy bombardment, a spot of recreational gassing is just the final push to tip the balance.

The surrender was well under way, and fighters were being bussed out from 22 March onwards.  Jaysh al-Islam was the only group left by that point, and defeat was inevitable, though apparently with some still wanting to hold out.  I don't see why gassing civilians would make the last few fighters surrender more than killing them with bombs and bullets would.

3 hours ago, blandy said:

 if the Russians knew it was going to happen why not share the specifics? It looks like another example of Russia covering for Assad’s repeated use of CWs, as evidenced on multiple occasions by UN investigators 

I'm not clear what specifics you mean.  Exact location, date, time?  I haven't seen anything saying the info was that clear.  But since they announced it in the context of saying it would be the pretext for a US strike, the question arises why, if it was Syria, they and Syria would fail to apply the same logic and assume that a strike would follow, or worse, further and deeper US involvement than just a one-off strike.  Again, I go back to the calculation they would make about costs and benefits.

[peterms]

1 hour ago, maqroll said:

The FBI has just raided Michael Cohen's office. Trump is done for.

Time for a diversion to distract attention from his domestic troubles.  If only there were some dramatic, theatrical action he could take that would dominate the media for the next few days.

[villa4europe]

Like set fire to his building 

 

[villa4europe]

Seriously though theres a fire at one of his towers, someone has died and he tweets that its a well built building well done firemen (and women)

I dont know how his twitter account still manages to blow my mind 

Edited April 9, 2018 by villa4europe

[tonyh29]

On 08/04/2018 at 22:10, peterms said:

and Thatcher ordered the retreating Belgrano to be sunk, for example

Going OT but  released docs show the British intercepted a direct order for the Belgrano to proceed east of the Falklands to rendezvous with other ships

Woodward correctly thought the Argentinians were forming a pincer movement and gave the order to attack  ...and he was right as confirmed later by the Argentine Admiral who confirmed “The integrated naval force had been deployed to carry out an attack on the British fleet in a co-ordinated operation with other naval groups..

‘The heading away from the enemy fleet was only momentary, as the commander saw fit to wait for a more convenient time (to attack). 

'The Belgrano and the other ships were a threat and a danger to the British.”

 

We’d also conveyed via the Swiss that any vessels in the area were fair game , the 200 mile  exclusion zone being deemed too smal

 

Edited April 10, 2018 by tonyh29

[HanoiVillan]

2 hours ago, maqroll said:

The FBI has just raided Michael Cohen's office. Trump is done for.

The deep state fights back! Presumably this is revenge on behalf of that bloke who lost his pension the other week. 

In all seriousness, this is probably pretty big news. You don't just get permission to raid a lawyer's office for no good reason whatsoever. 

[Straggler]

15 minutes ago, HanoiVillan said:

The deep state fights back! Presumably this is revenge on behalf of that bloke who lost his pension the other week. 

In all seriousness, this is probably pretty big news. You don't just get permission to raid a lawyer's office for no good reason whatsoever. 

To be fair a couple of days ago Trump told everyone to ask his lawyer about the 130k.  This is one way of asking.

[HanoiVillan]

 

[tonyh29]

2 hours ago, peterms said:

The surrender was well under way, and fighters were being bussed out from 22 March onwards.  Jaysh al-Islam was the only group left by that point, and defeat was inevitable, though apparently with some still wanting to hold out.  I don't see why gassing civilians would make the last few fighters surrender more than killing them with bombs and bullets would.

Independent analyst view 

 

But Neil Hauer, an independent analyst focusing on Russia and Syria, tweeted a response to their claims, arguing that negotiations between the regime and Jaysh al-Islam, with Russia as a guarantor, broke down on Thursday.

The regime wanted Jaysh al-Islam to either lay down their weapons or be bused out of the area to central Syria, Hauer wrote, but the negotiations faltered. Jaysh al-Islam reportedly agreed to lay down their weapons only if they were allowed to stay in Douma as a local police force, which Assad didn't favor.As a result, the regime struck Douma hard with airstrikes on Friday, then allegedly used chemical weapons on Saturday. On Sunday, Jaysh al-Islam agreed to leave the area.

[maqroll]

4 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

The deep state fights back! Presumably this is revenge on behalf of that bloke who lost his pension the other week. 

In all seriousness, this is probably pretty big news. You don't just get permission to raid a lawyer's office for no good reason whatsoever. 

Feels like a tipping point tonight.

[blandy]

10 hours ago, peterms said:

Perhaps an investigation could establish whether bombs were dropped.

I'm not clear what specifics you mean.  Exact location, date, time?  I haven't seen anything saying the info was that clear.  But since they announced it in the context of saying it would be the pretext for a US strike, the question arises why, if it was Syria, they and Syria would fail to apply the same logic and assume that a strike would follow, or worse, further and deeper US involvement than just a one-off strike.  Again, I go back to the calculation they would make about costs and benefits.

It could. If only Russia hadn’t vetoed the continuation of the joint investigation team...

So they announced it in the context of it "being the pretext for a US strike"? When you say that, again it reads like “the US was in on this subterfuge that the Russians discovered”

10 hours ago, peterms said:

Time for a diversion to distract attention from his domestic troubles.  If only there were some dramatic, theatrical action he could take that would dominate the media for the next few days.

And now are you implying your rebel folks have created all this to help Trump with his domestic troubles? Perhaps not, but linking all these things together seems a bit wierd. The sort of thing from a comedian's routine, perhaps, that would get a laught, but not a serious point about US politics or Syria.

 

[blandy]

7 hours ago, tonyh29 said:

Independent analyst view 

 

 

That’s what I said earlier as the motive for Syria to do it. Adding in that Trump had also indicated an intention to disinvolve the US. From Syria, it looks like Assad and Russia thought they could drop their CW barrel bombs etc. free from repercussions.

weve had the usual stuff now that there was no attack, that the British did it, that the rebels did it as a false flag and so on. Just create a swirl of doubt, call for investigations and if they ever happen hinder them then disavow any results. Rinse and repeat.

[Brumerican]

10 hours ago, maqroll said:

The FBI has just raided Michael Cohen's office. Trump is done for.

Better call Saul.

[Chindie]

I think you can add the lawyer office raid to the ever increasing pile of silver bullets. Trump will finish his term and maybe be shuffled off for 2020. A few hangers on will take the hit.

The outright best result I think would be for the shit flung by the whole thing to hit Pence and make him persona non grata in time for 2020 as well. Because he's actually evil. Trump's just a blowhard moron. Pence is an actual politician with really, really nasty views.

[bickster]

8 hours ago, Straggler said:

To be fair a couple of days ago Trump told everyone to ask his lawyer about the 130k.  This is one way of asking.

Just like I said the other day Trumps statement the other day lead to this, him opening his mouth had the potential to break client/attorney privilege, it seems the FBI and Mueller are of the same opinion

It's also interesting that this raid was carried out not at the behest of Mueller but by the FBI, the information came from Mueller's team but the raid isn't forming part of his investigation, that is until the FBI uncover information that may relate to Mueller, which of course they will pass on.

The other interesting point is that to get authorisation for the raid they had to get it signed off by the US Attorney in Manhattan (A Trump appointee), a magistrate judge and the criminal division of the DOJ, raids on law firms are not a run of the mill thing and there must be a weight of evidence stacking up for it even to take place.

[blandy]

I know Trump is inconsistent and hard to read from one day to the next, but Russia and Syria appear to have badly misread him and the US on these CWs.

It looks like they took his "plan" to disinvolve the US from Syria too seriously, decided to finish off the rebel resistance in Douma with a bit of a CW attack, flagging at a low level in advance a spot of disinformation that something might happen to drag the US back in to give themselves a bit of cover to deny it was their pall Assad..

They went ahead, dropped the barrel bombs from their planes and helicopters, got the surrender they wanted, but then Trump flipped, perhaps prompted again by his daughter, and perhaps with a more pressing need to be seen to not be Putin's puppet.

Russia has now said there wasn't any CW attack, it's all made up by the rebels trained by the Americans to simulate such an attack.

It's all getting a bit tense. Trump's flip flopping on every issue every 5 minutes is massively destabilising for the world.