8pints Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 To think Wigan have 1 win in 6 and are 16th in the form table and so many people think they will win against the second best form team in the country who also have to win. It's Wigan. it's football! It's.......... This is quite fitting as a theme tune to the current situation I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NormandyVillan Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 probably because people are more likely to place a bet on a single event happening, rather than work out the events that need to happen for that event to happen and bet on those, and bookies alter their odds relevant to the amount of money backing an event happening I don't know much about how bookies work out their odds, but the discrepancy seems logical to me: The odds quoted on Villa going down should reflect the probability of Wigan beating Arsenal multiplied by the probability (IF WIGAN BEAT ARSENAL) of WIgan beating Villa multiplied by the probability (IF WIGAN BEAT ARSENAL) of Spurs not beating Sunderland. I say "reflect" rather than "be" because the bookies would obviously quote odds a bit shorter than what they see as the real probability. The individual odds quoted now for the games concerned would reflect the probability of the results as considered now, and (in the case of the games on the final day) would take into account the fact that Wigan are probably going to be relegated tomorrow. I don't know if WIgan would be more likely to beat Villa in what would be more or less a dead rubber (WIgan 18th and relegated v. Villa already safe and just playing for League places) or in an important relegation decider. That's maybe debatable. But the probability of Spurs beating Sunderland would surely be higher if Sunderland are safe from relegation (as they probably will be) than if they are still in a relegation fight. Thus the odds on Villa being relegated are shorter than what you would work out from the odds on the individual events that would lead to it happening. I hope that makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArteSuave Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Hearing Mike Dean is reffing has made me disproportionately nervous. Curse you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Well say what you want about the odds, but plenty of my Villa supporting mates have just put money on the two scenarios i quoted previously. In fact they got odds of 205/1 for the first scenario and 96/1 for the second. Confirmed bets, with the stake and potential returns there to see for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sharkyvilla Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Hearing Mike Dean is reffing has made me disproportionately nervous. Curse you. I think Mike Dean is OK. He generally doesn't bottle big decisions which in tomorrow's game there could be some HUGE ones for both sides. I don't take the past results for Arsenal with him in charge particularly seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted May 13, 2013 Moderator Share Posted May 13, 2013 Well say what you want about the odds, but plenty of my Villa supporting mates have just put money on the two scenarios i quoted previously. In fact they got odds of 205/1 for the first scenario and 96/1 for the second. Confirmed bets, with the stake and potential returns there to see for all.As a draw OR a win will do Sunderland, you're actually backing 'Spurs not to win' which is 12/5. Which makes the 'Villa to be relegated' scenario (12/5, 8/1, 20/19) an accumulator of just under 62/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 If there wasn't so much riding on the arsenal game, how many of us would seriously think Wigan could win at arsenal. There are many factors against Wigan winning there. 1. Arsenal are better 2. Arsenal need to win 3. Wigan will be mentally and physically drained after winning the FA cup No winners of The FA Cup have been relegated the same season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted May 13, 2013 Moderator Share Posted May 13, 2013 No winners of The FA Cup have been relegated the same season Just hold that thought for 30 more hours if you don't mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
legov Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 To think Wigan have 1 win in 6 and are 16th in the form table and so many people think they will win against the second best form team in the country who also have to win. It's Wigan. it's football! That was kind of my point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robbie09 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 No winners of The FA Cup have been relegated the same season Just hold that thought for 30 more hours if you don't mind There's a first time for everything. Regardless of whether Wigan win tomorrow, I'm confident we will get at least a draw and Spurs will beat Sunderland next weekend. The stress should help me shed a few pounds in the meantime! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 Well say what you want about the odds, but plenty of my Villa supporting mates have just put money on the two scenarios i quoted previously. In fact they got odds of 205/1 for the first scenario and 96/1 for the second. Confirmed bets, with the stake and potential returns there to see for all. As a draw OR a win will do Sunderland, you're actually backing 'Spurs not to win' which is 12/5. Which makes the 'Villa to be relegated' scenario (12/5, 8/1, 20/19) an accumulator of just under 62/1. These are the bets btw ARSENAL V WIGAN ATHLETIC ENG PREMIER LEAGUE Match Betting - 90 Mins Wigan Athletic 17/2 Win only Unsettled WIGAN ATHLETIC V ASTON VILLA ENG PREMIER LEAGUE Match Betting - 90 Mins Wigan Athletic 21/20 Win only Unsettled TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR V SUNDERLAND ENG PREMIER LEAGUE Match Betting - 90 Mins Draw 4/1 Win only Unsettled ARSENAL V WIGAN ATHLETIC ENG PREMIER LEAGUE Match Betting - 90 Mins Wigan Athletic 17/2 Win only Unsettled WIGAN ATHLETIC V ASTON VILLA ENG PREMIER LEAGUE Match Betting - 90 Mins Wigan Athletic 21/20 Win only Unsettled TOTTENHAM HOTSPUR V SUNDERLAND ENG PREMIER LEAGUE Match Betting - 90 Mins Sunderland 19/2 Win only Unsettled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted May 13, 2013 Moderator Share Posted May 13, 2013 Yeah I know. You'd have to split your stake across 2 bets to cover both Sunderland scenarios. They are in essence both 'Spurs not winning'. You'd also be hoping that the Sunderland win came in instead of the draw. But as the draw is more likely, you might be better taking the 12/5 bet and not splitting your stake up. Either way it's throwing money down the drain UTV! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
omariqy Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 No I understand what you are saying, I was just showing you the odds FYI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted May 13, 2013 Moderator Share Posted May 13, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I see this thread has moved along at a fair old pace today. I predict 678 pages before it is locked tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zatman Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I never bought this Wigan hype in February that they will turn into Harlem Globetrotters and wipe the floor with evertobdy in last 2 months and still dont buy it now. Even IF they win at Emirates tomorrow I would still expect us to get a result at JJB as Gabby and Weimann would rip their defence to shreds on current form Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaForever1970 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I see this thread has moved along at a fair old pace today. I predict 678 pages before it is locked tomorrow night.And if Wigan actually win, will your stomach drop and feel a little bit sick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
samjp26 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 As always in the situations where I believe I won't lose, I will donate a signed Benteke shirt to a charitable cause if Wigan win tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
markavfc40 Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I see this thread has moved along at a fair old pace today. I predict 678 pages before it is locked tomorrow night. And if Wigan actually win, will your stomach drop and feel a little bit sick? No. I will be very, very, very,very surprised if they win but I am 100% convinced we are staying up and have been saying exactly that since we drew with Everton. I fully expect us to get a result at Wigan regardless of what happens tomorrow night at the Emirates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
R.Bear Posted May 13, 2013 Share Posted May 13, 2013 I would never bet against Villa. Never have, never will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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