Relegation

[leviramsey]

To say that it's possible that Wigan beat Arsenal is true, yes, but it is a post devoid of content in that it adds precisely nothing to the collective body of knowledge of this site.

Much more meaningful is stating a probability that Wigan win. So how many times out of 10 do you figure Wigan beat Arsenal?

At the moment, Wigan to win at Arsenal is available at 10-1 at BetVictor.

Per Kelly (the provably optimal bet-sizing method, in that using any other bet-sizing method is either guaranteed to lead you to ruin (as happened to the global financial system not too many years ago) or to lower long-run rates of return), then, depending on what you assess the probability as, you should be betting the following proportion of your net worth on Wigan:

10%: 1%

20%: 12%

30%: 23%

40%: 34%

50%: 45%

60%: 56%

70%: 67%

80%: 78%

90%: 89%

100%: 100%

Put up or shut up.

[villa-revolution]

 

 

 

Bottom line (Pun intended ) Bog Rolls all round in Norwich, Sunderland, Southampton, Newcastle & B6

 

 

 

Not for me mate. I don't need them. I am 100% convinced that Wigan will not beat Arsenal on Tuesday. I tell you what though if your shitting it and need my share of bog roll then be my guest help yourself.

 

 

No Thank's. Best you keep them, just in case that  over confident arse of your's doesn't get caught short anytime soon!

[P3te]

If Newcastle, Sunderland, Norwich all win then they all go above us son, so then if Wigan somehow beat arsenal then they will be fired up so come last day we are the ones with the pressure

 

You must be shitting yourself for next season. Just think about it now, if all the other teams pick up more points than we do we'll be relegated. You must be chilled to the bone

[Jimmytheirishvillain]

Gotta say after yesterday very worried again. It's like a story a very very bad story benteke villas talisman sent off thus missing last game of the season against Wigan which we potentially need to not lose. But so much can happen. Southampton west brom and or qpr draw or win today and there's out survival looking more probable. Wigan drawing or losing at arsenal Tuesday night very very likely to happen even after today's game in which man city were awful I thought and we are safe regardless and even if Wigan win who knows villa might beat them away even without benteke they looked really good today I'm proud of them Bennett lichaj Delph and Westwood especially. Unsung heros. I just want the season to end this has been nightmare after nightmare and I want it over now. Come on arsenal I've never asked you for a favour but please Tuesday night show up get at them and turn on the flare for your last home game of the season don't pull your boogie bullshit

[ciggiesnbeer]

Less worried after the Chelsea game. Sounds stupid I know but that team looked confident and exciting. I think they will beat Wigan if they need to. Hopefully they wont need to though.

[Raymond]

Well i don't accept all the "we're safe" comments whatsoever.. If this team can lose a home game when being 1-0 up at half time & playing against 10 men then i have no confidence in them at all. So now Wigan go to Arsenal with their tails right up which will largely compensate for the tiredness... a winning team doesn't notice the tiredness remember & they didn't just win they won the FA Cup... so no it is most definitely not a forgone conclusion on Tuesday in fact it is perfectly poised for another sickening "Marvelous little Wigan" headline.

Can't believe we found a way to **** that up today we were 45 minutes from safety against 10 men. Unflippingbelievable

You do know we had a man sent off too right? Our most important player?

Shhhhhhhhhhhh

[PieFacE]

Well I think today has proved one thing. Anything can happen in football. People who are guaranteeing our safety such as SetfanAVFC are naive imo.  Wigan can beat Arsenal. Yes, it's unlikely, but to claim we're 100% safe when we're not is just plain stupid. 

[myb]

Out of all weekend fixtures I can't think of any other team I'd want Wigan to be playing on Tues. The form team in the league, at home, with their own pot of gold to play for. Perhaps United away in Fergies last home game, but no other.

[kurtsimonw]

Agreed. Wigan will be tired after that and it will be hard to get back into the right state of mind after a Cup win like that IMO. Arsenal have the extra rest, they're at home, they're in incredible form and they basically have to win if they want Champions League next season. I think it could be a big Arsenal win.

[Jimmytheirishvillain]

Agreed. Wigan will be tired after that and it will be hard to get back into the right state of mind after a Cup win like that IMO. Arsenal have the extra rest, they're at home, they're in incredible form and they basically have to win if they want Champions League next season. I think it could be a big Arsenal win.

I hope so. I keep thinking the opposite Wigan will be on a high, arsenal are due a bad result, but surely at very least arsenal will draw and that's the least. Plus win a cup get relegated keeps ringing in my ear. I really don't mind Wigan staying up but just wanna see them lose this and us be mathematically safe cant take any more of this it's playing on my mind day in day out

[P3te]

 

I really don't mind Wigan staying up but just wanna see them lose this and us be mathematically safe cant take any more of this it's playing on my mind day in day out

a draw makes us safe too

[CI]

The arsenal centre backs worry me.

[The_Lions_Roar]

Arsenal are a very good side

(somebody pls confirm )

Apparently Wigan are better (not my idea just the thoughts of some on here).

Dont think anyone is suggesting they're better, on the day we all know anything can happen, will anyone here be genuinely surprised if wigan did win?

Of course, I mean there's no way a team like wigan will beat arsenal, look at how they've just been hammered by city in the final. What's that? Wigan beat city? Oh balls! Anything really can happen.

[Demitri_C]

If Newcastle, Sunderland, Norwich all win then they all go above us son, so then if Wigan somehow beat arsenal then they will be fired up so come last day we are the ones with the pressure

You must be shitting yourself for next season. Just think about it now, if all the other teams pick up more points than we do we'll be relegated. You must be chilled to the bone

Huh?? This makes no sense what has next season got to do with my point? Obv if we went down the whole forum would be bricking it for next season as I don't think we will be able to get straight back up

All I am saying is we needed a point and we were cruising until he got himself sent off un necessarily. Now we go in last game where we could potentially go down if results go against us today

[AVFCAM]

I've decided, if Wigan beat Arsenal and Norwich, Newcastle Sunderland an Southampton win today, I'm just going to accept that we're not meant to stay up.

If you'd told me about 3 months go that before the end of the season we would win 5 out of 9 games, beating all of our rivals (comfortably), scoring over 12 goals, only losing to Man Yoo, Chelsea and Liverpool, I'd have called you mad. To have done all that and still not been safe is as mad as us having such a terrible run of games at Christmas and still not being bottom of the league.

We don't deserve to go down this year, but Wigan seem to have a lot of luck...

If McManaman had been sent off against Newcastle, so much might have been different!

For what it's worth, I now think we'll beat Wigan, but, if they overcome Arsenal, you've just got to accept that fate probably isn't on your side

[Keyblade]

Even if they do somehow manage to get past Arsenal, they still have to get through us on the last day. 3 games in 8 days and lots of drinking would have taken it's toll by then, and our boys are no pushovers anymore. I fully expect us to smash them.

Edited May 12, 2013 by Keyblade

[Villarocker]

I do think we'll be ok and all the results won't go against us but there's always a possibility that the unthinkable can happen, just look at yesterday's cup final result.

Wigan were in a similar position last season, although they were clear of the drop zone when they went to the Emirates. I found this post match reaction from a Gooner site - http://worldofarsenal.co.uk/2012/04/17/end-of-season-collapse-kicks-in-as-arsenal-lose-2-1-to-wigan-at-home/

I hope it won't be a case of deja vu.

Sorry but I am couldn't find the way to make a short link as I posted from my mobile.

[danceoftheshamen]

I've decided, if Wigan beat Arsenal and Norwich, Newcastle Sunderland an Southampton win today, I'm just going to accept that we're not meant to stay up.

If you'd told me about 3 months go that before the end of the season we would win 5 out of 9 games, beating all of our rivals (comfortably), scoring over 12 goals, only losing to Man Yoo, Chelsea and Liverpool, I'd have called you mad. To have done all that and still not been safe is as mad as us having such a terrible run of games at Christmas and still not being bottom of the league.

We don't deserve to go down this year, but Wigan seem to have a lot of luck...

If McManaman had been sent off against Newcastle, so much might have been different!

For what it's worth, I now think we'll beat Wigan, but, if they overcome Arsenal, you've just got to accept that fate probably isn't on your side

 

 

I actually think you are right,

 

I was so dismayed yesterday especially after being technically safe & playing 10 men, ok it was a very strong 10 men but even so... gutting to lose it from there.. but then i guess that was a microcosm of our season, done well at times but then a moment of naivety cost us, good one half bad the next, throwing away leads... everything pretty much that has plagued us all season in one game.

 

Thing is i agree we are a much stronger team now and overall played well yesterday. Sadly though as you say it appears the Gods haven't decided who stays up yet!

 

So it goes to today now which will not really decide anything, especially as Norwich will now be playing a very deflated Man CIty on the last day even if they fail to get the probable win against the Baggies.

 

Then to Tuesday when we basically have our last day fate in the hands of Arsenal.

 

Lets just hope the loss of Benteke isn't put to the test on the last day.

[CI]

Horrible season drags on and on. Yesterday was so frustrating because we touched safety and then it faded away again

[Swerbs]

95% safe.