Wainy316 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 (edited) It's been evident for a while that kicking at the Holte in the first half has been beneficial for us with a number of very fast starts out the blocks. I've noticed it since the 4-0 win over Brentford under Danks and into Emery's reign from the very first game (against Man Utd). Despite this, fans boo whenever the toss winner has us facing the Holte first half. This happened on Saturday before another flying start against Forest. Traditionally an opposition captain would have us shooting this way first half but any manager that's done their homework would see this is not a wise move so do we reckon that its McGinn that's having us face this way? This article in the Brum Mail has some of the numbers. Aston Villa's Holte End theory debunked as disadvantage exposed - John Townley - Birmingham Live (birminghammail.co.uk) Quote Aston Villa's Holte End theory debunked as disadvantage exposed Aston Villa news from BirminghamLive as we analyse the perceived benefit of facing the Holte End in the second half of matches A chorus of boos from all four stands of Villa Park will ring out when John McGinn wags his finger, alerting his Aston Villa teammates that they'll be facing the Holte End in the first half rather than in the second. It's tradition that Villa kick towards more than 13,000 packed in the Holte End after half-time, presumably for an advantage late on in games. Since the start of last season, Villa have played 39 home matches in all competitions, 26 of which facing the Holte End in the second half and the other 13 swapped around, facing the stand in the first period. But there is evidence to suggest that Villa actually have an advantage when they face the Holte End in the first half and then the North Stand in the second. Since the start of last season, in six of the 13 matches Villa have played facing the Holte End first, they have scored at least one goal in the first 20 minutes of games, totalling to an impressive 11 goals across all 13 games. That's a rate of 0.85 goals in the first 20 minutes of a game when facing the Holte End first. Comparing that to the rate in which Villa have scored in the final 15 minutes of games at the Holte End since last season, it drops off quite considerably. On the 26 occasions Villa have kicked towards the Holte End in the second half since last season, they've scored at least one goal in only eight of those matches, totalling to 14 goals. It gives Villa a goal scoring rate of 0.54 for the final 15 minutes of matches when facing the Holte End. Although the sample size for facing the Holte End in the first half is smaller than after half-time, the rate at which Villa score at the North Stand in the second half (0.46) isn't far off that of the Holte End (0.54). However, there is a huge drop off in goals scored in the first 20 minutes of matches when Villa kick towards the North Stand (0.31) in the first half of games, compared to the Holte End (0.85). Of course, there are variables which affect this data, such as quality of opponent, individual quality and mistakes too. However, it's important to note that on only one of the 10 occasions when Villa have scored the first goal in the first 20 minutes of games when kicking at the Holte End, have they blown a lead and not won the game, which was against Leicester City last season. Therefore, if Villa can get off to a quick start and use the home backing to their advantage in the opening stages, they almost always win the game based off this data. Furthermore, the amount of 'important' goals Villa have scored in front of the Holte End in the final 15 minutes of matches is also limited. Villa were leading against Bournemouth by two goals before they scored a third late on, while two of Villa's three goals in the 6-1 thrashing of Brighton also came late on in front of the Holte End. Jhon Duran's goal of the season contender and then Douglas Luiz's penalty against Crystal Palace were both crucial earlier this season, while Nicolo Zaniolo's header to salvage a point against Sheffield United could also turn out to be vital come the end of the campaign. Last term, Danny Ings won Villa a point late on against Wolves, before Leon Bailey should have made it all three. John McGinn also bagged a winner in the Europa Conference League group stage against Zrinjski. Apart from those four matches, Villa's late goals at the Holte End since the start of last season haven't made much of a material impact on points, but to caveat that, Villa have been excellent at home, meaning they're not pushing for late goals as they might previously done. Villa have a 77 per cent win rate from the 13 games they have faced the Holte End in the first half and a 54 per cent win rate when facing the stand in the second half. Edited February 28 by Wainy316 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ender4 Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 Under Lambert, it often felt like kicking off in front of a black hole, which such dense toxicity not even light could escape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tayls Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 So many Kenneth’s at this thread title… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted February 28 Author Share Posted February 28 It felt a shame to correct that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain_Townsend Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 I think it's more that whether it is the first half or thr second half when we kick toward the Holte we do tend to go for it more. Whether that be a fast start or a big finish. Have seen us turn a lot of games in the second half kicking towards the Holte but I do take the point about the fast starts too, I have noticed it and like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stephen_Evans Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 I’m struggling with “at”. “Towards” surely? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 I love it. I genuinely think it's a big reason why we've won so many home games since the Don came in. Think of all the season we won just 6/7 at home and many of those games were 1-1s or 0-0s where our tempo was way too slow at the start. Kicking towards the Holte focuses the mind as we obviously will get more of a cheer getting early shots away and set pieces. And doesn't take a rocket scientist to understand if we take the lead in more home games we can manage the game more effectively and win more of them. Feels like all our previous managers just knew it was tradition to attack the Holte second half and never bothered to look into the statistics. Emery probably has and thought outside the box a little right at the start given his first game we went 2-0 up v Man. United in the first 10 minutes. These are the small details where having a quality manager thinking of that gets us 5-10 more home points over a season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted February 28 Author Share Posted February 28 1 hour ago, Stephen_Evans said: I’m struggling with “at”. “Towards” surely? I ain’t changing it again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talldarkandransome Posted February 28 Share Posted February 28 I've always preferred kicking towards Holte in 2nd half, but more recently when we've done it in first half we've got off to fliers. I think if McGinn wins toss against Spuds he will switch it again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted February 29 VT Supporter Share Posted February 29 7 hours ago, VillaChris said: These are the small details where having a quality manager thinking of that gets us 5-10 more home points over a season. He's got us a few more than that me ol' mucka ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted February 29 VT Supporter Share Posted February 29 6 hours ago, Talldarkandransome said: toss against Spuds Whatever floats your boat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LondonLax Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Probably Emery’s team that have sent this data to the Birmingham Mail to encourage them to write this article. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheAuthority Posted February 29 VT Supporter Share Posted February 29 23 minutes ago, LondonLax said: Probably Emery’s team that have sent this data to the Birmingham Mail to encourage them to write this article. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fightoffyour Posted February 29 VT Supporter Share Posted February 29 12 hours ago, Stephen_Evans said: I’m struggling with “at”. “Towards” surely? Not when Tonev was playing! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
withes_shin Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 I'm sure when John Terry was Villa captain and won the toss he always chose to attack the Holte End first half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wainy316 Posted February 29 Author Share Posted February 29 1 hour ago, fightoffyour said: Not when Tonev was playing! 'Kicking over the Holte' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWARLEY2 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 Our tactic is about control. So if we can get 1 nil up early we will tend to go on and win. So attacking the Holte works for us. Our gsme is also not about rushing play so the fact that they dont have the whole crowd screaming for us to shoot is also good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dadwasthere57 Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 (edited) What? Me superstitious? Edited February 29 by dadwasthere57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talldarkandransome Posted February 29 Share Posted February 29 17 hours ago, TheAuthority said: Whatever floats your boat. You're worse than @sidcow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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