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Race for Champions League - 2023/2024


Don_Simon

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2 minutes ago, Aston_Villan4 said:

Not sure how accurate but:

 

it isn't accurate at all, depends what the draw is and then the results of the game.

It will be very clear at the end of the quarters

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17 minutes ago, AshVilla said:

I think we should be more concerned with the Watkins injury than the coefficient at the minute.

Huh? If Watkins is injured for any length of time I care even MORE about the coefficient 

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30 minutes ago, CVByrne said:

That's a bad bad goal for the extra CL spot. Leverkusen have saved Germanys chances and given them a 50:50 shot now with England.  

 

85% chance England according the stat dudes.

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On 11/03/2024 at 11:52, omariqy said:

The more German teams that go out the better regardless of us, City and Liverpool being favourites. You never know in tournament football what will happen. Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen are likely to go quite far in their respective competitions. Therefore, we really need Freiburg and Dortmund to exit and make sure we have at least 1 or 2 more teams than that left who are picking up points. 

This week’s games to look out for

UCL

Arsenal v Porto (0-1) - If Arsenal win then that is 0.375 to our points total 

Dortumund v PSV (1-1) - you would expect Dortmund to win that and go through - 0.429 for their total

UEL

West Ham v Freiburg (0-1) - as per Arsenal - 0.375

Bayer Leverkusen v Qarabag (2-2) - as per Dortmund - 0.429

Brighton v Roma (0-4) - Brighton are out but if they can win the tie at least then it will be 0.25 for our total

Liverpool v Sparta Prague (5-1) - as per the above 0.375

UECL

Aston Villa v Ajax (0-0) - as per the above 0.375

That would leave the following 

Germany - 16.358

England - 16.375

 

So pretty much the best we could have hoped for. I think every result is as the above. Only mistake from me was that we don’t get the extra 0.125 points for round progression in the UECL. As others have said it’s only from the quarter final onwards. Gap is basically nothing now. We have 2 more teams than Germany in the various competitions. Barring a really bad draw for English teams facing each other then you would expect England to push ahead quite easily. 

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2 minutes ago, omariqy said:

So pretty much the best we could have hoped for. I think every result is as the above. Only mistake from me was that we don’t get the extra 0.125 points for round progression in the UECL. As others have said it’s only from the quarter final onwards. Gap is basically nothing now. We have 2 more teams than Germany in the various competitions. Barring a really bad draw for English teams facing each other then you would expect England to push ahead quite easily. 

Actually thinking about it. If English teams do get each other then it’s a guaranteed 0.25+0.375 points for each tie. So wouldn’t be the end of the world. 

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I think we're in a decent position, but leverkeusen could make the final of the el, dortmund could get through too. Suspect bayern will lose as they are rubbish but no guarantees. If the English clubs all draw each other etc

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2 minutes ago, Rodders said:

I think we're in a decent position, but leverkeusen could make the final of the el, dortmund could get through too. Suspect bayern will lose as they are rubbish but no guarantees. If the English clubs all draw each other etc

Even if English teams draw each other it means 2 get through to the next round and still us in ECL so English would still rack up big points in the next round and would have at least two strong teams left in competitions and us if we get through.

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3 hours ago, zak said:

West ham and Athletico has changed this. It's now 80% change Villa make Champions League.

 

Based on probability alone, Villa now have an 81.7% chance of playing in champions league next year

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I'm sure CV Byrne must be looking at some alternative data. Every time a German side even scores a goal in Europe it's some unmitigated disaster.

England will have at least five teams in CL next season.

What happens if it's a West Ham-Liverpool Europa final? Do West Ham get the extra spot even with a loss?

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4 minutes ago, TreeVillan said:

Oh god United are getting 5th aren't they?

Statistically unlikely (12.8%), so yeah they probably are

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