DJBOB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 (edited) 10 minutes ago, TRO said: I accept many of your points, but let me say this, the away form you mention, is associated with my fear of conceding too easy...it is mainly away from home, but there have been some examples, at home, too. Let me share a stat with you, in the last 5 seasons only 1 team has finished in the top 4, with conceding in excess of 50 goals....Thats Chelsea in 2019/20 with 54 goals.....we are currently on 27, so at out current rate, we will finish on 51 just remember, these are merely, views and opinions.....not facts. I am convinced, with our goal scoring, I feel we have enough fire power, to reach top 4....I am just not convinced with our defending. I am not relying soley on Stats, albeit they do support my "eye test" and just for the record....I do not blame the high line, for the questionable defending.....I am a fan of the high line. An interesting tidbit on the goals allowed is that we've only allowed multiple goals in 5 of our 20 matches (Newcastle away, Liverpool away, Forest away, United away, Burnley home). While true that that the <50 goal marker is usually what's needed for top 4, it is a weird quirk this year that our competitors for those positions (Tottenham, Chelsea, Newcastle, United, Brighton) have even worse defenses than we do. Edited January 3 by DJBOB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 This is a decent picture of how I think it will play out. Lots of wild cards of course. Can we keep up our clinical touch in front of goal? Bailey, in particular, has been deadly from limited shots. Can Spurs keep up with their reckless defense? Will Chelsea ever learn how to score? Will Newcastle get enough players back from injury to play their style? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 This is another good visualization of where I think we are - leading the pack for the 4th spot. Whether we can stay toe to toe with Arsenal/City/Liverpool is going to rely on our fitness, particularly in forming our preferred back 4 - but for me - we have given up an unexpected amount of low xG goals while maintaining a potent attack at home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TRO Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 (edited) 26 minutes ago, DJBOB said: This is another good visualization of where I think we are - leading the pack for the 4th spot. Whether we can stay toe to toe with Arsenal/City/Liverpool is going to rely on our fitness, particularly in forming our preferred back 4 - but for me - we have given up an unexpected amount of low xG goals while maintaining a potent attack at home. Another poke at the averages is.....in the last 5 seasons....4th place has required 20 wins and 70 points on average. Edited January 3 by TRO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPAngel Posted January 3 VT Supporter Share Posted January 3 42 minutes ago, DJBOB said: This is a decent picture of how I think it will play out. Lots of wild cards of course. Can we keep up our clinical touch in front of goal? Bailey, in particular, has been deadly from limited shots. Can Spurs keep up with their reckless defense? Will Chelsea ever learn how to score? Will Newcastle get enough players back from injury to play their style? Really not a fan of this. At first I thought it was an xG table but it's Expected Points which feels a bit whacky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 It will be peak Villa to end up coming 6th when 5th could get Champions League. Like in 92/93 when we came 2nd only when 1st got you CL, and in 95/96 coming fourth before 4 were allowed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJBOB Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 (edited) 49 minutes ago, JPAngel said: Really not a fan of this. At first I thought it was an xG table but it's Expected Points which feels a bit whacky. It's a bit whacky but not too far off the mark because overall xG can be misleading as a sum as there are outliers (Liverpool/Newcastle, Newcastle/Sheffield, etc) that can really skew the total xG table even though points are the actual barometer. Plus it aggregates the point groupings better than overall xG so you can see the clear delineations - the top 3, the fight for the rest of the European places, midtable, and then the bottom 6 or so teams though this year the bottom 3 are stark. Edited January 3 by DJBOB 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWARLEY2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 45 league games under Emery. 91 points gained. By whatever metric you use , this is Champions League Qualification form. It just doesnt make sense to say that we will drift away. All the stats say opposite. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 Just now, MWARLEY2 said: 45 league games under Emery. 91 points gained. By whatever metric you use , this is Champions League Qualification form. It just doesnt make sense to say that we will drift away. All the stats say opposite. You are correct. Only deep-seated negativity says otherwise 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWARLEY2 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 1 minute ago, Kiwivillan said: You are correct. Only deep-seated negativity says otherwise We are not on the crest of a wave. Our form hasnt been golden. We have just kept on the same trajectory for 14 months now. A few highs like Arsenal and City. A few lows like manure and wolves away . And the worst run we had which was the 3 losses in a row. But for the most point every month we have averaged 2 points per game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoMkali Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 On 03/01/2024 at 15:16, DJBOB said: This is another good visualization of where I think we are - leading the pack for the 4th spot. Whether we can stay toe to toe with Arsenal/City/Liverpool is going to rely on our fitness, particularly in forming our preferred back 4 - but for me - we have given up an unexpected amount of low xG goals while maintaining a potent attack at home. It's worth pointing out that because of the way we play our xGA will always be higher than our actual goals against because there will be tight offside calls that aren't called on the pitch but when going to VAR would be disallowed. For instance one of Halaands shots vs us in the city game was offside and it was worth something like 0.8 xG when measured but in actuality it was worth zero because he was offside. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermon Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 You can understand why most don't fancy us for top 4 or the title when they see us play. We're usually not pretty to watch because of the slow temp/patient play we operate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
foreveryoung Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Everyone needs to be on there game if we are to finish top 4, that's including big Diaby. Not many teams get Champions League football carrying players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kiwivillan Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) 27 minutes ago, supermon said: You can understand why most don't fancy us for top 4 or the title when they see us play. We're usually not pretty to watch because of the slow temp/patient play we operate. That's only against teams that park the bus. That's not happening every week. I can't understand why some people on here go out of their way week in week out to write off our chances. Edited January 6 by Kiwivillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermon Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 57 minutes ago, Kiwivillan said: That's only against teams that park the bus. That's not happening every week. I can't understand why some people on here go out of their way week in week out to write off our chances. I wasn't writing us off, just acknowledging why others outside of Villa may not fancy us from what they see in those games. We don't usually go out all guns blazing so it may be portrayed as not easy on the eye but I understand why Unai does it that way and appreciate we play the patient game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Adman Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 9 minutes ago, supermon said: I wasn't writing us off, just acknowledging why others outside of Villa may not fancy us from what they see in those games. We don't usually go out all guns blazing so it may be portrayed as not easy on the eye but I understand why Unai does it that way and appreciate we play the patient game I agree watching us we seem patient and negative in a way, but then we've scored the second most goals in the league... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaChris Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 13 hours ago, supermon said: I wasn't writing us off, just acknowledging why others outside of Villa may not fancy us from what they see in those games. We don't usually go out all guns blazing so it may be portrayed as not easy on the eye but I understand why Unai does it that way and appreciate we play the patient game At Villa Park we do. Yeah away it's a bit different and we really go for the control/strangulation approach in terms of trying to stifle the home team but it's backfired a bit conceding the first goal so often and early in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enda Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 (edited) We have the best keeper in the world. Of course our actual conceded goals are less than expected. Edited January 7 by Enda 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPJCB Posted January 7 Share Posted January 7 On 05/01/2024 at 14:08, MotoMkali said: It's worth pointing out that because of the way we play our xGA will always be higher than our actual goals against because there will be tight offside calls that aren't called on the pitch but when going to VAR would be disallowed. For instance one of Halaands shots vs us in the city game was offside and it was worth something like 0.8 xG when measured but in actuality it was worth zero because he was offside. I saw someone (might have been Tifo?) mention another relevant factor on this that because we tend to score early in games this season it means that much of the game is spent absorbing pressure meaning our xGA is higher and xGF is lower than might be the case if we were spending all game searching for a goal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villan95 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 On 03/01/2024 at 15:12, DJBOB said: This is a decent picture of how I think it will play out. Lots of wild cards of course. Can we keep up our clinical touch in front of goal? Bailey, in particular, has been deadly from limited shots. Can Spurs keep up with their reckless defense? Will Chelsea ever learn how to score? Will Newcastle get enough players back from injury to play their style? On 03/01/2024 at 15:16, DJBOB said: This is another good visualization of where I think we are - leading the pack for the 4th spot. Whether we can stay toe to toe with Arsenal/City/Liverpool is going to rely on our fitness, particularly in forming our preferred back 4 - but for me - we have given up an unexpected amount of low xG goals while maintaining a potent attack at home. Good to see that we have been one of the top 4 performing teams this season statistically. Gives me hope that it will be sustainable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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