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Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23


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8 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

Ah well that's the thing, I don't think we are going to finish in the top 7 this season and so I want Fulham, Brighton and Brentford to lose so that we can get into the top half. 

Those 3 will lose, the main threat is Brighton. Fulham have been the luckiest (not saying they’re bad though), they beat us in our worse game under Gerrard, two players sent offfrom Palace (if I remember well). A player sent off from Chelsea. 
 

Brentford are great against top 6, but nothing more than ok against the rest of the league. 
 

Only Newcastle are the team that you could say is more convincing than everyone, but even then they’re defensive side of the game is the thing helping them, in the last three games they’ve only scored a header in the last couple of minutes. But what will help them is two things, they’re already ahead of everyone in terms of points. They’re hard to break and to beat. But for me, they’ll start drawing more and more but sadly they’re far ahead of us (and all teams around) and I don’t think they’ll go in losing streaks, but I think a lot of draws. 
 

Palace has the quality to get back to the mix. So we need to be sure we’re ahead of them comfortably.

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I'm pretty optimistic about making a push. Plenty of other results gone our way too. Haven't got any crazy expectations but it would be an unbelievable turnaround to still be in the fight toward the end of the season. 

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47 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

Because we are not going to catch Spurs. We may catch Fulham though. Looking at the table and the upcoming fixtures, it is looking very likely that if we beat Leicester we STILL won't be in the top half. Our poor start is the reason for this.

Hopefully we can finish top 10 and give the top 8 a real go next season. To finish 10th, we do need Fulham, Brentford or Brighton to slip up, but there is plenty of time for that to happen.

 

We can catch Spurs while they're conceding on average 2 goals a game. Think they've been doing that since Mid October so it's not just a 4-5 game dip.

If they lose at Fulham and then the return v Man. City, they're on 33 points from 22 so I'd say them getting 60 points this season is looking unlikely.

If they're around 55 points we should be aiming to catch them. Being realistic aswell Spurs still likely to win more games in the run in than Fulham are aswell.

At least this weekend has shown Brighton and Brentford weren't going to keep winning forever more.

Edited by VillaChris
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7 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

I am not on the pitch and have no influence on where we finish. That fact often get's missed on forums. What we say on here makes no difference whatsoever to where we finish

I don’t understand this, are you saying all my lucky items that I wear that if I don’t the Villa lose, that I have to have the same routine otherwise Villa lose and I can’t bet on Villa otherwise they lose….are you saying that’s not true? I don’t understand…and since when has the world not revolved around me? Surely not!

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4 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

I'm not surrendering. I am not on the pitch and have no influence on where we finish. That fact often get's missed on forums. What we say on here makes no difference whatsoever to where we finish. I hope you are right and we do finish in the top 7 but I think that's a fantasy at this stage and I wouldn't want to set myself up for that kind of disappointment when it doesn't happen.

I would absolutely back us to do it in the next few years though.

I agree on the fact that we have no influence, but at the same time we’re here to discuss our views. 
I’ll give you an example, we’ll play City soon, everyone will want a good performance and not a harmful result. But deep inside we can hope for more. If the game went to our side and we score, shouldn’t we fight for it? 
If we were setup to draw, then a City player got a red card, shouldn’t we push for a result? 
Even if we improved the next couple of years, will we have a bad Spurs or Liverpool by then? Will Newcastle not improve? Yes we could have a better chance, but equally we can do good and still not achieve something (we got 55 points only to get 11th) last year West Ham got 56 to get 7th, Man Utd 58 6th. Sometimes you do good but end up with nothing, and sometimes you’re worse but others are wrose than you so you do achieve. 

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3 hours ago, abdulaziz1 said:

With Europe, we can afford to keep some youngsters which should be the squad. Right now it’s better to loan them. 
Hopefully we make it tgis season. West Hame went to Europe two years. It only affected them now and actually them being bad isn’t some related to Europe, they’ve been losing since the beginning of the season.

Yeah, I actually had the likes of Leicester and West Ham in mind.

It's all good qualifying, but it's how you handle it afterwards.

Even buying a load of players doesn't guarantee sync and success.

So we would have to be careful.

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7 minutes ago, JAMAICAN-VILLAN said:

Yeah, I actually had the likes of Leicester and West Ham in mind.

It's all good qualifying, but it's how you handle it afterwards.

Even buying a load of players doesn't guarantee sync and success.

So we would have to be careful.

We are nowhere near ready to play in Europe. We have a good first 11 and that is basically it as it stands. Stevenage proved that in spades. If Kamara, Ollie or Martinez got injured for example, we would be screwed.

Emery will fix that of course, over the next few transfer windows. Then it will be a different story.

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14 minutes ago, abdulaziz1 said:

I agree on the fact that we have no influence, but at the same time we’re here to discuss our views. 
I’ll give you an example, we’ll play City soon, everyone will want a good performance and not a harmful result. But deep inside we can hope for more. If the game went to our side and we score, shouldn’t we fight for it? 
If we were setup to draw, then a City player got a red card, shouldn’t we push for a result? 
Even if we improved the next couple of years, will we have a bad Spurs or Liverpool by then? Will Newcastle not improve? Yes we could have a better chance, but equally we can do good and still not achieve something (we got 55 points only to get 11th) last year West Ham got 56 to get 7th, Man Utd 58 6th. Sometimes you do good but end up with nothing, and sometimes you’re worse but others are wrose than you so you do achieve. 

I think the team should (and will) try to win every game. That's not the same as me thinking we won't qualify for Europe. I'm not imploring the team to not try.

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55 minutes ago, GlobalVillan said:

Because we are not going to catch Spurs. We may catch Fulham though. Looking at the table and the upcoming fixtures, it is looking very likely that if we beat Leicester we STILL won't be in the top half. Our poor start is the reason for this.

Hopefully we can finish top 10 and give the top 8 a real go next season. To finish 10th, we do need Fulham, Brentford or Brighton to slip up, but there is plenty of time for that to happen.

 

Spurs are only 5 points ahead of us.  We still have to play them at Villa Park.  If we were to beat them at home that leaves a 2 point gap over 17 matches.  If Kane or Son get injured their attacking threat is massively impacted.  They have a keeper who is a complete liability at the moment and appears to have lost all confidence.  They've conceded 21 goals in their last 10 matches.  Their fans are getting restless.  Their manager is berating them in the media already and has never really appeared to be completely happy at the club.  They are probably more likely to go into full meltdown than Chelsea or Liverpool.

I really don't think that they are out of reach at the moment.  Quite happy for a Fulham v Spurs draw.  If we then beat Leicester we'd be right on their heels.

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1 minute ago, allani said:

Spurs are only 5 points ahead of us.  We still have to play them at Villa Park.  If we were to beat them at home that leaves a 2 point gap over 17 matches.  If Kane or Son get injured their attacking threat is massively impacted.  They have a keeper who is a complete liability at the moment and appears to have lost all confidence.  They've conceded 21 goals in their last 10 matches.  Their fans are getting restless.  Their manager is berating them in the media already and has never really appeared to be completely happy at the club.  They are probably more likely to go into full meltdown than Chelsea or Liverpool.

I really don't think that they are out of reach at the moment.  Quite happy for a Fulham v Spurs draw.  If we then beat Leicester we'd be right on their heels.

Don't forget their Sporting Director is potentially getting banned for 30 months, basket case of a club atm

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17 minutes ago, allani said:

Spurs are only 5 points ahead of us.  We still have to play them at Villa Park.  If we were to beat them at home that leaves a 2 point gap over 17 matches.  If Kane or Son get injured their attacking threat is massively impacted.  They have a keeper who is a complete liability at the moment and appears to have lost all confidence.  They've conceded 21 goals in their last 10 matches.  Their fans are getting restless.  Their manager is berating them in the media already and has never really appeared to be completely happy at the club.  They are probably more likely to go into full meltdown than Chelsea or Liverpool.

I really don't think that they are out of reach at the moment.  Quite happy for a Fulham v Spurs draw.  If we then beat Leicester we'd be right on their heels.

If Kane or Son get injured? What about if our main players get injured? They have Kane and Son. We have Watkins. You can't just consider those factors for them and not apply them to us. Spurs squad is significantly better than ours. As is their first 11. On top of that, they are 5 points ahead of us, but that's not the reason we won't catch them. The reason is that they are better than us and will not be out of form forever. Nor will we keep winning. As enjoyable as it is.

I'm fine with all that, as we are building something and I believe it could change in the near future.

Edited by GlobalVillan
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Just now, MSvillain said:

Don't forget their Sporting Director is potentially getting banned for 30 months, basket case of a club atm

I don't think it is potentially is it?  I think it's a done deal unless Juve appeal.  There were some rumours here in Italy initially that Juventus were being advised that they have got off lightly with not being relegated (or worse) and that by appealing they might actually end up in bigger trouble (I've not checked to see whether that has changed over the last few days).  Obviously that wouldn't stop individuals appealing their specific punishment but I think it would be very, very difficult for the guy who has been given the longest ban of the lot to expect to win his appeal if the club and other protagonists have "accepted" the judgement.  I don't think he'd even have the chance of trying to plea bargain his way out of it unless he reveals further issues that Juve haven't been investigated / found guilty of.  A couple of season again you might have still expected Juve to be able to wriggle their way out of it - but the whole ESL fiasco and their continued support for it, seems to have weakened their position within UEFA and Italy.

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We just need to focus on ourselves first and get as many points as we can , what other teams do unless they’re playing us doesn’t matter. We need to handle our own business first.

Edited by Sulberto21
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Just now, GlobalVillan said:

If Kane or Son get injured? What about if our main players get injured? You can't just consider those factors for them and not apply them to us. Spurs squad is significantly better than ours. As is their first 11. On top of that, they are 5 points ahead of us, but that's not the reason we won't catch them. The reason is that they are better than us and will not be out of form forever. Nor will we keep winning. As enjoyable as it is.

I'm fine with all that, as we are building something and I believe it could change in the near future.

Absolutely the same applies to us in terms of injury risk - but I think Ollie gets injured a lot less than Kane or Son. 

Their defence is a shambles at the moment - their keeper is probably in the worst form of any keeper in the division - whilst ours is probably in the best form (certainly in the top 3).

Are we likely to finish above Spurs - probably not.  But it's not ridiculous to think that there might only be 2 points difference in a couple of weeks.  We're in great form, they are (in their manager's own words) defending like relegation candidates.  You would expect (given the players they have available) for Spurs, Chelsea and Liverpool to all regain form and pull clear of the midfield pack.  But it has been a while since any of those clubs have been in crisis.  Will their players roll up their sleeves and fight like tigers to finish 7th or will some of them give up and start thinking that their agents can get them CL football somewhere else.  Kane's made it clear several times before than he's not averse to playing somewhere else to try and win some silverware.  He could easily be in line for being tapped up in the next month or so.  Last time that happened he had a really bad spell of form.  Of the three Sly 6 clubs that are struggling - Spurs are by far the most likely to implode.

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11 minutes ago, nick76 said:

His part in the Juve scandal

Pretty sure he is facing the biggest ban of any of the individuals caught up in it - which implies that either he's been stitched up as the fall guy OR he played a very, very significant role in what was going on.  And there were rumours before he got the job at Spurs - so even sacking him still leaves Spurs having to answer some interesting questions.

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18 minutes ago, allani said:

I don't think it is potentially is it?  I think it's a done deal unless Juve appeal.  There were some rumours here in Italy initially that Juventus were being advised that they have got off lightly with not being relegated (or worse) and that by appealing they might actually end up in bigger trouble (I've not checked to see whether that has changed over the last few days).  Obviously that wouldn't stop individuals appealing their specific punishment but I think it would be very, very difficult for the guy who has been given the longest ban of the lot to expect to win his appeal if the club and other protagonists have "accepted" the judgement.  I don't think he'd even have the chance of trying to plea bargain his way out of it unless he reveals further issues that Juve haven't been investigated / found guilty of.  A couple of season again you might have still expected Juve to be able to wriggle their way out of it - but the whole ESL fiasco and their continued support for it, seems to have weakened their position within UEFA and Italy.

Yeah i put potentially asi believe there will be an appeal and technically at this stage he is only banned in Italy, however there's very little doubt that the Premier League/UEFA would extend that ban to here if upheld

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On 22/01/2023 at 16:25, birdman said:

I'm pretty optimistic about making a push. Plenty of other results gone our way too. Haven't got any crazy expectations but it would be an unbelievable turnaround to still be in the fight toward the end of the season. 

Could go to the final game of the season, Brighton at home! 

Our last 10 fixtures, 8 of them are currently Top 10 so very much still all to play for 

"Would you bet against us"? :D

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11 minutes ago, Kingman said:

Could go to the final game of the season, Brighton at home! 

Our last 10 fixtures, 8 of them are currently Top 10 so very much still all to play for 

"Would you bet against us"? :D

That's a very good point. I just sorted the strength of schedule based on league position over the final 10 games and guess who comes out bottom with an average opponent's position of 8.20.

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EDIT : I just went back to the start of this thread for a read. I didn't realise it was kind of started sarcastically and got laughed off the forum.

Well yiz aren't laughing now are ya. Eh? Eh? :D:thumb:

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