nick76 Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) 42 minutes ago, Pinebro said: Here is our xG under Unai which is quite interesting. Our points total is 42 while our expected points total is only 29 which over a season would put us around 8th - 9th. Our form obviously has been brilliant but when Unai analyze this period he will understand our performances still has lots of room to improve. I don’t really take much notice of xG in detail, it’s really been overused and people are starting to realise that only at a glance is it of use and should not be used in isolation or without context and other stats. How the table is using it is a bit nutty because xG doesn’t take into account many factors in its number. Even just looking at that table shows how little pts and xpts relate really when you look team by team and having watched many of the games. Really, should Leicester and Villa almost have the same points over the last 20-21 games. I’ve watched both and I don’t see that at all. Edited May 4, 2023 by nick76 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinebro Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 21 minutes ago, nick76 said: I don’t really take much notice of xG in detail, it’s really been overused and people are starting to realise that only at a glance is it of use and should not be used in isolation or without context and other stats. How the table is using it is a bit nutty because xG doesn’t take into account many factors in its number. Even just looking at that table shows how little pts and xpts relate really when you look team by team and having watched many of the games. Really, should Leicester and Villa almost have the same points over the last 20-21 games. I’ve watched both and I don’t see that at all. I haven't watched enough Leicester games to have an opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PaulC Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 1 hour ago, nick76 said: and 5 of those 7 games are against the Top 4 and us. If they win to tonight they will be a point ahead, vastly superior goal difference and three games in hand. I thought we would finish above Brighton but after the weekend I'm not so sure. even with tough games they are capable of picking up points in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecretVillaScout Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 42 minutes ago, Demitri_C said: I have my doubs whether they have the squad big enough to deal with that volume of games in such a shirt space of time Their reserves wiped the floor with Wolves 6-0. Danny Welbeck looking like prime Ronaldo. Their system is so good it will make any player look like a world beater, even hopeless players like Cucurella and Bisoumma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 (edited) 33 minutes ago, Pinebro said: I haven't watched enough Leicester games to have an opinion. Ok then West Ham or Palace even. Southampton who have been down right awful over the last 21 games only deserve 3 less wins than us according to xPts…nonsense! I watch a lot of PL games, too many to be honest and I think we deserve to finish in the top 7 based on our games. The top 4 are where they deserve to be, Liverpool will get 5th by just the quality they have and not the performances they have given and then us, Brighton and Spurs for 6th to 8th. Despite the issues Spurs seem to get through well with Conte and Top4 and now gone backwards, in the reverse of us that started poorly under Gerrard and now well under Emery. Brighton have been consistent all season at being extremely pretty to watch, great consistent results but are a bit short of being close to a top 5 team…(I think they may drop at least a few places next season to midtable). I think they’ll get beaten by Arsenal and Newcastle away and City at home. I’m just hope Man U beat them tonight. The xG for me is not accurate in that table enough to be used in isolation as a stand alone fact. Edited May 4, 2023 by nick76 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick76 Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 18 minutes ago, SecretVillaScout said: Their reserves wiped the floor with Wolves 6-0. Danny Welbeck looking like prime Ronaldo. Their system is so good it will make any player look like a world beater, even hopeless players like Cucurella and Bisoumma. Yeah but Wolves were at the beach, their players didn’t even bother players. So many times out of place of their system and positions, half hearted plays…it was end of season not interest by them. Brighton took advantage but I was less impressed by the score line because of Wolves’ attitude, I hope they are same for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKP90 Posted May 4, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted May 4, 2023 I wish Man U would stop getting themselves in a position where I have to hope they win. It feels awful. Come on Bruno F...no I just can't do it. Hope they draw and get 5 players sent off each, even though that's not possible in the rules of football. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SecretVillaScout Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 7 minutes ago, nick76 said: Yeah but Wolves were at the beach, their players didn’t even bother players. So many times out of place of their system and positions, half hearted plays…it was end of season not interest by them. Brighton took advantage but I was less impressed by the score line because of Wolves’ attitude, I hope they are same for us. Hopefully Wolves are still at the Beach on Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AshVilla Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 29 minutes ago, SecretVillaScout said: Hopefully Wolves are still at the Beach on Saturday. Haven't you heard it's their cup final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hank Scorpio Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 10 minutes ago, AshVilla said: Haven't you heard it's their cup final. It definitely is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pinebro Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 2 hours ago, nick76 said: Ok then West Ham or Palace even. Southampton who have been down right awful over the last 21 games only deserve 3 less wins than us according to xPts…nonsense! I watch a lot of PL games, too many to be honest and I think we deserve to finish in the top 7 based on our games. The top 4 are where they deserve to be, Liverpool will get 5th by just the quality they have and not the performances they have given and then us, Brighton and Spurs for 6th to 8th. Despite the issues Spurs seem to get through well with Conte and Top4 and now gone backwards, in the reverse of us that started poorly under Gerrard and now well under Emery. Brighton have been consistent all season at being extremely pretty to watch, great consistent results but are a bit short of being close to a top 5 team…(I think they may drop at least a few places next season to midtable). I think they’ll get beaten by Arsenal and Newcastle away and City at home. I’m just hope Man U beat them tonight. The xG for me is not accurate in that table enough to be used in isolation as a stand alone fact. You don't honestly think we are the 4th best team in the league though, surely? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StewieGriffin Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 2 hours ago, AshVilla said: Haven't you heard it's their cup final. Well they certainly don't get any actual ones... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vive_La_Villa Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 2 hours ago, AshVilla said: Haven't you heard it's their cup final. Maybe the fans. The players won’t give a shit about Villa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VillaParkAvenue Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 34 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said: Maybe the fans. The players won’t give a shit about Villa I’m sure Lopetegui would absolutely love to beat Emery. They’re from the same little village in the Basque country for God’s sake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMelvillan Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 Watching the bha man utd game here. Really hope we don’t need a win against Brighton last day of the season to qualify for Europe because they really are a good team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don_Simon Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 Were we to miss out on Europe with Brighton finishing above us, there's absolutely no shame in that. They are an exceptional team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishVilla10 Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 14 minutes ago, TheMelvillan said: Watching the bha man utd game here. Really hope we don’t need a win against Brighton last day of the season to qualify for Europe because they really are a good team Were going to have to change it up for sure because Caicedo playing on the right is going to stop our attack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BleedClaretAndBlue Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 6 minutes ago, Don_Simon said: Were we to miss out on Europe with Brighton finishing above us, there's absolutely no shame in that. They are an exceptional team. They deserve it as things stand. Been good all season tbf. Hopefully this game stays at least the same, any game they dont win atm is a bonus. If it does go down to that last day you never know, we have a good record against them and VP will be electric. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reivax_Villa Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 Brighton 1-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayEm Posted May 4, 2023 Share Posted May 4, 2023 Oh, come on.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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