Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23

[skarroki]

I think it's between us and Spurs for 7th. I think Spurs will cock up again form they're in against Palace so we need to win our game against Wolves and then beat them to give a 6 point cushion going into final 2 games. Meaning we need a point or just to edge goal difference to guarantee Europe at that point. 

Other than that Brighton's run in is extremely tough for them, be interesting how they get on with the games in hand and whether they can string enough points together. 

As said before by others too, I can see us on 60 going into the last match, which means Brighton need 11 points from the 6 they've got before they play us. Nearly 2 points per game when you are playing a congested schedule against all of the current top 4 and two teams "fighting" for their lives is a huge ask. Although I expect 6 points for them against Everton and Southampton based on how awful they are.  

[Sulberto21]

2 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Brighton got 4 points out of the reverse fixtures (they beat Man U at Old Trafford and drew with Newcastle at the Amex, lost to City away and Arsenal at home, though they also beat Arsenal to knock them out of the League Cup). Don't think it's crazy to think they could beat or match that for these fixtures, they're really good. 

Agreed - Brighton will win their games at home imo. 

[Keyblade]

I think if we beat Wolves, Spurs and Brighton, 6th place is ours. That should be the aim. I don't see Brighton getting to 63 points, and we can make it so that Spurs can't get any more than 63 points, bringing it down to goal difference assuming they even win the other 3 games.

[nepal_villan]

4 hours ago, duke313 said:

No point in worrying about this lads, if we finish in the Europe spots happy days, if we don’t then we don’t, at least we’ll know where we “slipped” up.

We’ll be up there next season no matter what.

That's what West Ham and Leicester said. 

[nick76]

2 hours ago, Sulberto21 said:

Agreed - Brighton will win their games at home imo. 

They are not beating Man City at home.  Man U at home will be interesting I’ll give you that but I still favour Man U there.  They aren’t beating Newcastle away, Geordies are good at home and then Arsenal at Emirates will depend how Arsenal play, will depend if recent Arsenal or the Arsenal of general this season.

[ben1505]

Win the next 4 games, we are in Europe next season. I’d have snapped your hand off to be in this position 

[nick76]

Brighton and us have a tough run in. 

It's just who performs and aside from yesterday, Brighton's form has been patchy. 

I've been pessimistic of our final league position over the last two months and constantly proved wrong, yet now many of the same posters are more pessimistic than me now after us losing at Old Trafford, which I think we all realistically had as a loss on our predictions and Brighton won, which again I think most of us predicted.  Yes Brighton played well but Wolves were awful, this doesn't negate how patchy Brighton's results have been over the last few months despite being pretty on the eye they have been.

For me Spurs are the big unknown because they are shocking but are more than capable of picking up results so predicting them is no use.  3-0 down at Anfield but almost got a draw, thank god for Jota.  Just hope this continues to play on their poor confidence.

I think Brighton are going to struggle.  Just look at their fixtures and how many games they have left.  Three of the top four in the next four games, which could easily destroy that advantage they have of games in hand.  I can easily see them only getting three points in the next four games and us winning one of our two, so we'll be in the same place points wise as now but having played one more game than them instead of three. 

Whatever combination I come up with, imo, the final game is the decider of who finishes the highest in the league between Brighton and us.  Spurs for me then decide whether that position is 6th or 7th based on their results.

I'm just surprised I'm in the more optimistic group now and fairly calm about the remaining games because I expected defeat yesterday but still think we'll qualify for Europe and I still think it'll be the final day game that will decide it so if we win that we'll get Europe, if we dont then we wont.  For me, it's in own hands that day.  Spurs are the only variable to all this and league positions.

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by nick76

[Mark Albrighton]

6 hours ago, HanoiVillan said:

Brighton got 4 points out of the reverse fixtures (they beat Man U at Old Trafford and drew with Newcastle at the Amex, lost to City away and Arsenal at home, though they also beat Arsenal to knock them out of the League Cup). Don't think it's crazy to think they could beat or match that for these fixtures, they're really good. 

Yeah that’s all fine. I wouldn’t call it “crazy” to think they could win one of those. I just don’t think they will. 

I don’t think they’re favourites for any of them. Maybe the Man Utd game they could be regarded as the favourites going in. Hopefully, that being the next one will give a good indication of how they will fare. If they lose that or even a draw, maybe a few more might feel a bit more positive about things.

And EVERYONE is assuming that Southampton and Everton are guaranteed six points for them. I am too. Absolutely nothing to say that Saints won’t do what they did at Arsenal and Dyche will shithouse a 0-0 draw in one final hurrah.

To be honest, I’m more concerned about us racking up the points than I am about Brighton. I think they will find it hard due to opposition, I think we may find it hard due to running out of steam.

[Sulberto21]

2 hours ago, nick76 said:

They are not beating Man City at home.  Man U at home will be interesting I’ll give you that but I still favour Man U there.  They aren’t beating Newcastle away, Geordies are good at home and then Arsenal at Emirates will depend how Arsenal play, will depend if recent Arsenal or the Arsenal of general this season.

I think Man City might be in title celebrations mode so might nick a win last home game of the season and all that jazz too. 

[MNVillan]

2 hours ago, nepal_villan said:

That's what West Ham and Leicester said. 

Absolutely. When you have the chance, you need to take it. No guarantees it comes around again.

[nick76]

13 minutes ago, Sulberto21 said:

I think Man City might be in title celebrations mode so might nick a win last home game of the season and all that jazz too. 

Jeez mate, you’re in full pessimism mode.  I hoping you are wrong and I think you will be but let’s wait and see.

[RichW]

One thing have to factor in with Brightons remaining games is by the time they play Newcastle and Man City is whether those teams have already qualified for the Champions League or won the league. 
 

I’m expecting Brighton to beat Man Utd, Everton and Southampton but lose the 3 away ones but football doesn’t always work like that. That would leave them on 61 going into the final day. Everton could grab a draw there but Brighton are capable of getting a draw in those away games especially if Newcastle/Man City have achieved their objective by then. I think Brighton will just be out of reach by the final day for us especially with the goal difference. I wish Villa could rest our 3 best players and still batter a poor team 6-0.

Man Utd throwing away a 2 goal lead the other night is probably the most frustrating thing, even a point advantage over Spurs would have been a bonus.

 

 

[Sulberto21]

1 minute ago, nick76 said:

Jeez mate, you’re in full pessimism mode.  I hoping you are wrong and I think you will be but let’s wait and see.

I’m a Villa fan pessimism is what we do .

 I was one of those who genuinely thought we’d get CL after winning all our games . 

[RichW]

3 hours ago, nepal_villan said:

That's what West Ham and Leicester said. 

Couple of months ago I was firmly in the camp that Europe was a season too early for this squad but looking at West Ham and Leicester this season you can just never plan for Europe. Have to take the opportunity when it comes as breaking into the top 7 is reliant on one of the traditional “big 6” to have a bad season.

[nick76]

8 minutes ago, Sulberto21 said:

I’m a Villa fan pessimism is what we do .

 I was one of those who genuinely thought we’d get CL after winning all our games . 

I think that maybe the problem.  

I never thought we’d get CL so where we are now (heading for 6th-7th) I feel calm and confident about still, but seeing those posters who thought we had a chance of CL have gone into pessimism mode now after the Man U defeat even though that was highly likely.  

Brighton have been patchy recently but some of our fans have overreacted to their beating of a non-interested Wolves yesterday.

The weekend results have changed nothing for me, I think some of fans got overly optimistic of CL place and now on a major come down and gone too far the other way.  To me, we are still on track…play well, we get enough points for Europe imo.

[RichW]

3 minutes ago, nick76 said:

Brighton have been patchy recently but some of our fans have overreacted to their beating of a non-interested Wolves yesterday.

Thread might not be pretty if Brighton do go and beat Man Utd Thursday night though!

You say Brighton have been patchy recently, their league home form since the World Cup reads W5 D1 L1 so they are good at home. 
 

Lets hope Wolves are just as non-interested the weekend. 

[Mic09]

2 minutes ago, RichW said:

Thread might not be pretty if Brighton do go and beat Man Utd Thursday night though!

You say Brighton have been patchy recently, their league home form since the World Cup reads W5 D1 L1 so they are good at home. 
 

Lets hope Wolves are just as non-interested the weekend. 

Even if they are interested, if we are thinking of a European place we have to be beating Wolverhampton. They are not very good. 

[nick76]

3 minutes ago, RichW said:

Thread might not be pretty if Brighton do go and beat Man Utd Thursday night though!

You say Brighton have been patchy recently, their league home form since the World Cup reads W5 D1 L1 so they are good at home. 
 

Lets hope Wolves are just as non-interested the weekend. 

True about Brighton’s home record.  As for Wolves, our away record since WC is pretty impressive as well even with the Man U defeat.  It’s going to be an interesting month.

[VILLAMARV]

1 minute ago, nick76 said:

The weekend results have changed nothing for me, .....//........ To me, we are still on track…play well, we get enough points for Europe imo.

Same here, Nothing has really changed. Lots of games midweek again - Friday is the only day this week without a PL game. Can Man U take some points away from the Amex? Not expecting much from Fulham at Anfield, and then a gameweek where the 4 of us are 'expected' to win our games. Brighton have Everton on the Monday night Palace and Brentford for the other 2. We have to beat Wolves to set up the grandstand finish.

[Mark Albrighton]

6 minutes ago, RichW said:

Thread might not be pretty if Brighton do go and beat Man Utd Thursday night though!

You say Brighton have been patchy recently, their league home form since the World Cup reads W5 D1 L1 so they are good at home. 
 

Let’s hope Wolves are just as non-interested the weekend. 

But then of course, they won’t have played Man City at home in that run. It’s Bournemouth, Palace, West Ham, Fulham, Brentford, Wolves.

They beat Liverpool at home in that run, which is very good and clearly the stand out result of that 7 game record. But Liverpool were a bit out of sorts then (Liverpool lost 3-0 to Wolves around then) and I would argue that both the Manchesters are better than Liverpool were then.

 

You are right, this place on Thursday won’t be pleasant if Brighton do beat Man Utd. I won’t be happy. But I won’t be completely devoid of hope. Man Utd at home I think is the easiest of their four “hard” games.

We would have to do our bit though and that would probably mean going to Anfield and get at least a draw, with the rest being wins.