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Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23


messi11

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1 hour ago, TheMelvillan said:

wouldnt turn my nose up at the euro conference league thingy at all

it means more Villa games and my favourite thing in the world is watching Villa games. If it happens to be against crappy wee no-mark european teams i've never heard of? who cares, its still Villa, and if it means watching Villa actually win games and be competitive then all the better! bring it on

Love this. 

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2 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

Looking at this id day liverpool could finish top four. Their fixtures are not bad at all.

Us and spurs prob have hardest run in on paper

Screenshot_20230419_084238_Facebook.jpg

How have Spurs got 8 game remaining?  Don't Brighton have 2 games in hand on them, let alone us?

Something isn't right here...

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2 hours ago, Demitri_C said:

Looking at this id day liverpool could finish top four. Their fixtures are not bad at all.

Us and spurs prob have hardest run in on paper

Screenshot_20230419_084238_Facebook.jpg

Looking at that it's going to be incredibly hard to get 6th. We've had to go on a historic run putting out basically league winning form just to get ourselves back in it, it wouldn't be shocking if we lost to Brentford, they are very strong at home. Liverpool could go unbeaten winning 5 or 6 of all their remaining games, Being realistic I can see us getting 10 points from those, would 60 be enough for Europe? Maybe. I think we HAVE to beat Spurs, Brighton and Liverpool to have a chance.

I hope I'm proved wrong we win all 7 and finish 3rd!

Edited by VillaJ100
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28 minutes ago, VillaJ100 said:

Looking at that it's going to be incredibly hard to get 6th. We've had to go on a historic run putting out basically league winning form just to get ourselves back in it, it wouldn't be shocking if we lost to Brentford, they are very strong at home. Liverpool could go unbeaten winning 5 or 6 of all their remaining games, Being realistic I can see us getting 10 points from those, would 60 be enough for Europe? Maybe. I think we HAVE to beat Spurs, Brighton and Liverpool to have a chance.

I hope I'm proved wrong we win all 7 and finish 3rd!

I think were going to need to win at least 4 or 5 of our remaining 7 to stand a chance.

Very difficult.

Also Gregg Evans said he thinks were going to qualify for the CL so you can rule out any kind of european football based on that.

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2 hours ago, HeyAnty said:

😃 I actually think a draw would be worst for Villa.  Need one or the other to win

The best thing would be a Tottenham loss as they are realistically more catchable.

After that, a draw would be better than a Tottenham win.

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46 minutes ago, VillaJ100 said:

I hope I'm proved wrong we win all 7 and finish 3rd!

I have Man Utd down as taking that 3rd place spot (sadly). They have a very good and easyish set of fixtures.

If we can beat everyone in our remaining games (and pray for slip ups from Brighton, Newcastle, Liverpool and Spurs along the way) then we have a good chance of getting 4th at the most.

I think we will finish 6th though providing we keep at it, keep winning and the football gods also work in our favour regarding the others around us and their results.

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12 minutes ago, AvfcRigo82 said:

I have Man Utd down as taking that 3rd place spot (sadly). They have a very good and easyish set of fixtures.

If we can beat everyone in our remaining games (and pray for slip ups from Brighton, Newcastle, Liverpool and Spurs along the way) then we have a good chance of getting 4th at the most.

I think we will finish 6th though providing we keep at it, keep winning and the football gods also work in our favour regarding the others around us and their results.

United are out of reach, and it will take a monumental collapse from Newcastle to catch them.

The max we can get is 71, Newcastle then needs 16 points from 24 to get to 72.

So, even if we are perfect in last 7 games and get maximum points, I can't see Newcastle dropping that many points.  

Now if they lose their next 2 games against Spurs and Everton, i'll start to believe, but it's out of our hands.

Having said that, based on Newcastle and Man U current ppg, after 38 games Newcastle would have 70 points and Man U 74.  

Edited by duke313
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16 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

What the table looks like if all remaining results match the earlier reverse fixture:

3 Man Utd 75

4 Newcastle 74

5 Liverpool 63

6 Brighton 63

7 Villa 63

8 Spurs 60

Whilst interesting to see us only missing 5th by gd, it's not really a useful comparison. I assume some of our reverse fixtures were under Gerrard. And also Liverpool seem to be on the up compared with their earlier season performance.

Not to mention the fact you're flipping home and away, where Liverpool have looked far worse away than at home. 

Adding that context it becomes quite favourable...We've looked as good away as we have at home under Emery so in with a real shout.

Edited by MrBlack
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3 minutes ago, MrBlack said:

Whilst interesting to see us only missing 5th by gd, it's not really a useful comparison. I assume some of our reverse fixtures were under Gerrard. And also Liverpool seem to be on the up compared with their earlier season performance.

Not to mention the fact you're flipping home and away, where Liverpool have looked far worse away than at home. 

Adding that context it becomes quite favourable...We've looked as good away as we have at home under Emery so in with a real shout.

1 of them - Fulham away (lost 3-1).  Brentford at home (won 4-0) was in between Gerrard and Emery.

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12 minutes ago, MrBlack said:

I assume some of our reverse fixtures were under Gerrard

Fulham. Brentford under Danks. Loss and a win. Think a couple of Brighton's were under Potter. Also obviosuly all Spurs' we're under Conte.

12 minutes ago, MrBlack said:

Not to mention the fact you're flipping home and away, where Liverpool have looked far worse away than at home. 

Same results but add a goal to team now at home and take one off the team now away (ie. previous away wins and 3 goal home wins have same result, two goal home wins become draws, 1 goal home wins flip, and draws become wins for side with home advantage now)

3 Man Utd 73

4 Newcastle 71

5 Brighton 62

6 Liverpool 61

7 Spurs 60

8 Villa 60

 

Edited by tomsky_11
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Just now, tomsky_11 said:

Fulham. Brentford under Danks. Loss and a win.

Same results but add a goal to team now at home and take one off the team now away (ie. previous away wins and 3 goal home wins have same result, two goal home wins become draws, 1 goal home wins flip, and draws become wins for side with home advantage now)

3 Man Utd 73

4 Newcastle 71

5 Brighton 62

6 Liverpool 61

7 Spurs 60

8 Villa 60

 

Add in the fact that Fulham will become a win for us with their missing talisman and the added Emery factor and that has us 5th on 63. Happy days

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