Villa’s Race for Europe 22/23

[Frodo]

I'm saying 8th at the moment. Injuries are starting to pile up & teams have games in hand over us, I have us losing tomorrow as Newcastle look ridiculous good at moment & there team is huge & there form is better than ours by 1 win, think they've won 7 on bounce & some good teams on the way. If we manage to get a result tomorrow & next week minimum 4pts then we may have some players back from injury for the remainder 6 games may start to believe in European football next season. 

[SecretVillaScout]

10 minutes ago, WallisFrizz said:

I honestly don’t think it’s that deep. We’ve had a good run, caught the attention of people who write and talk about football and they’ve realised that we’ve pulled together a good run of results without playing brilliantly. We know this. We’ve been very effective. 
 

I agree that it’s up to us to prove doubters wrong by making the run last longer than they expect it to but some of the analysis has been fair. 

Arsenal are performing way above their XG. 12-15 points more than their expected points. No one is saying anything about how they are 'Lucky' and tweeting about it. But Villa seem to be getting a lot of stick for it. Also been hearing about how Villa 'haven't beaten anyone in the top 10'.

 

3 minutes ago, VillaJ100 said:

That's what the top teams do, win when not playing that well. Then when you start playing well again you roll teams over. 

I agree but the top teams don't get videos, articles, tweets produced on how they're lucky,  how they're overperforming their 'xG' and how other teams have failed to take their chances against them. 

 

Edited April 14, 2023 by SecretVillaScout

[Beastmix]

55 minutes ago, KMitch said:

I love a good conspiracy, but this is downright hilarious...  Nobody is paying the media off or trying to knock our players' confidence.  People just started to notice that we're in the European conversation this past week.  

I love how we're playing right now but anyone who has watched all our games this season knows we've been lucky to win as many as we have.  I'm not trying to downplay what we've achieved so far, but we have the hardest run in of all the teams in the Prem and we'll need every ounce of luck we can get to finish above 8th.  My heart wants us to win every one of our last games and have us finish 4th, but my head tells me we'll most likely finish 8th and I'll still be over the moon at what Emery has accomplished so far.  

As much as I agree with the original post being ridiculous, these stats-slanted 'journalists' have conveniently ignored the fact of there being various different ways to win matches and not all of them involve absolute statistical domination. They've also focused on 'bad luck' of our opposition and overlooked any/all unfortunate things which haven't gone our way in games. There's a definite bias to which specific metrics are being used, which creates a bit of a strawman argument. They really shouldn't be talking about luck in a video with a core emphasis on statistics anyway.

The unpredictability is why we love this sport. It's not a cold, sterile, calculated endeavour. The only stat which matters, or determines anything, is points on the board. End of.

Edited April 14, 2023 by Beastmix

[MrBlack]

18 hours ago, YLN said:

I have a 50 euro bet on Villa to finish in the top six at 40/1. I bet back in November when Unai got the job. The betting company is offering me 107 euro for my bet now. If I cashed it in though I'd be wishing Villa to lose for the rest of the season. I'm going to let it ride. 

In Unai we trust...

Cash out, then stick 50 on us to get top 5... win win

[viivvaa66]

36 minutes ago, MrBlack said:

Cash out, then stick 50 on us to get top 5... win win

The odds for us getting top 4, is 150/1. Cashing out and putting all on us being top 4, would show some proper beliefs in Emery. (And a clear sign of insanity )

[tomsky_11]

53 minutes ago, WallisFrizz said:

Looks about right to be fair but let’s hope they’ve underestimated us.

I think they probably are.`

Table is almost identical to the FiveThirtyEight one (only difference is Leicester and Forest swapped, which looks like maybe an error in the graphic, as on Opta site they have Forest as marginally higher chance of 18th but then much higher chance of 19th than Leicester) and FiveThirtyEight, who base their predictions on an "SPI rating", have Liverpool as 3rd best team at present (SPI of 83.8), Brighton 5th (81.3) and us 9th (74.7), with Chelsea 6th (80.1). Definitely feels a little high for Liverpool and Brighton and especially so for Chelsea, and a little low for us, at least since Emery arrived.

Summary of how they seem to calculate these ratings is that the have preseason ratings based most on last season's performance and partly on Transfermarkt team values. These are then moved up or down factoring in performances as season progresses. Feels to me like there's probably a reasonable amount of weight on our score from Gerrard, both last season and this, that is bringing our rating down. We started out at 74.1 (Brighton were 73.7 preseason so very similar), dropped as low as 70.0 just before Emery's first game, and have since then improved to 74.7. I assume then that drop in rating of 4.1 under Gerrard is impacting our current rating and leading to a bit of underestimation of us under Emery.

They've then worked out probabilities of different results in remaining games using these SPI ratings to give an expected points figure for remainder of season. They have us getting 10 from our last 8 games, Brighton 16 from 10 games and Liverpool 18 points from 9. Basically a big drop in our form under Emery, Brighton pretty much maintaining form and Liverpool pretty increasing theirs.

Liverpool I expect to improve tbf, that return doesn't seem unreasonable on paper. I'd probably expect more from them if their away record wasn't so bad.

Brighton definitely feels to me a little over stated, especially given how the fixtures are likely to fall with extra midweek games. Prediction expects them to get around 9-10 points from their next 5, which I assume will be: che for WOL MNU EVE. Seems doable but not straightfoward, could easily see them dropping points at Chelsea, Forest (who's home record is pretty good) and in any of those home games, but especially Utd. Then the are expected to get another 6-7 points from final 5 of: ars new SOU MNC avl. Win at home to Saints should be expected, but where do the other 3-4 points come from? Probably us is the next best bet, but could easily see them coming into that game having not picked up as many points as expected and that game being a Euro place playoff essentially.

10 from our last 8 includes Brighton being marginal favourites for the final day. 9 for us up to that point (which feels pretty achievable given current form) and no more than 12 from Brighton which looks enitrely possible with the fixtures, still gives us the opportunity to jump them in a potential all or nothing game.

[rubberman]

17 minutes ago, tomsky_11 said:

I think they probably are.`

Table is almost identical to the FiveThirtyEight one (only difference is Leicester and Forest swapped, which looks like maybe an error in the graphic, as on Opta site they have Forest as marginally higher chance of 18th but then much higher chance of 19th than Leicester) and FiveThirtyEight, who base their predictions on an "SPI rating", have Liverpool as 3rd best team at present (SPI of 83.8), Brighton 5th (81.3) and us 9th (74.7), with Chelsea 6th (80.1). Definitely feels a little high for Liverpool and Brighton and especially so for Chelsea, and a little low for us, at least since Emery arrived.

Summary of how they seem to calculate these ratings is that the have preseason ratings based most on last season's performance and partly on Transfermarkt team values. These are then moved up or down factoring in performances as season progresses. Feels to me like there's probably a reasonable amount of weight on our score from Gerrard, both last season and this, that is bringing our rating down. We started out at 74.1 (Brighton were 73.7 preseason so very similar), dropped as low as 70.0 just before Emery's first game, and have since then improved to 74.7. I assume then that drop in rating of 4.1 under Gerrard is impacting our current rating and leading to a bit of underestimation of us under Emery.

They've then worked out probabilities of different results in remaining games using these SPI ratings to give an expected points figure for remainder of season. They have us getting 10 from our last 8 games, Brighton 16 from 10 games and Liverpool 18 points from 9. Basically a big drop in our form under Emery, Brighton pretty much maintaining form and Liverpool pretty increasing theirs.

Liverpool I expect to improve tbf, that return doesn't seem unreasonable on paper. I'd probably expect more from them if their away record wasn't so bad.

Brighton definitely feels to me a little over stated, especially given how the fixtures are likely to fall with extra midweek games. Prediction expects them to get around 9-10 points from their next 5, which I assume will be: che for WOL MNU EVE. Seems doable but not straightfoward, could easily see them dropping points at Chelsea, Forest (who's home record is pretty good) and in any of those home games, but especially Utd. Then the are expected to get another 6-7 points from final 5 of: ars new SOU MNC avl. Win at home to Saints should be expected, but where do the other 3-4 points come from? Probably us is the next best bet, but could easily see them coming into that game having not picked up as many points as expected and that game being a Euro place playoff essentially.

10 from our last 8 includes Brighton being marginal favourites for the final day. 9 for us up to that point (which feels pretty achievable given current form) and no more than 12 from Brighton which looks enitrely possible with the fixtures, still gives us the opportunity to jump them in a potential all or nothing game.

Yes, the 538 prediction has been very optimistic for Liverpool, but has been dropping recently as their form has continued to plummet. Same for undervaluing us. Generally though they seem to be reasonably accurate so shows how much we are changing form and how poorly Liverpool have been playing. 

[danceoftheshamen]

6 hours ago, SecretVillaScout said:

Arsenal are performing way above their XG. 12-15 points more than their expected points. No one is saying anything about how they are 'Lucky' and tweeting about it. But Villa seem to be getting a lot of stick for it. Also been hearing about how Villa 'haven't beaten anyone in the top 10'.

 

I agree but the top teams don't get videos, articles, tweets produced on how they're lucky,  how they're overperforming their 'xG' and how other teams have failed to take their chances against them. 

 

This is bang on. It's effetively spin in favour of the usual teams and against other teams who dare to try to intefere with the status quo. Arsenal have had so many decisions this season that it's ridiculous. So you could say "luck" or you could say it's their turn to get the helping hand from the corrupt Premier League. Their luck tends to be dodgy decisions or flukes like their 3rd goal against us in extra time both a fluke & with 2 players offside which VAR ignored.

Meanwhile our "luck" tends to be the kind which sees an opposition player make an error which gives us a chance on goal, which we have been taking. As in Traore against Leicester away & Forest. Then of course there are a few VAR decisions which were correctly given in our favour (amidst the several we didn't get which we should have) Most of our wins though have been hard fought and littered with exceptional goals created through good play. Nothing wrong with that at all. This is very unlike the aforementioned Arsenal "luck" but of course it all gets spun to make us look like some flukey team who shouldn't be up there whilst Arsenal get nothing but praise and adulation and their luck & miriad of genuinely dodgy VAR decisions in their favour is completely ignored. They are a good side don't get me wrong but even so.

 

 

[Vive_La_Villa]

So if United win the Europa league and finish top 4, 5th place gets you in to the champs league! 

[Keyblade]

1 minute ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

So if United win the Europa league and finish top 4, 5th place gets you in to the champs league! 

Seriously? That would be bonkers. We'd be in a mini league with Brighton, Liverpool and Spurs and I'd actually give us a decent chance. 4th is a bridge too far I think.

[Vive_La_Villa]

Why do our fans always play the victim? **** what the media say. Just keep enjoying us winning games while it lasts. 

[Vive_La_Villa]

2 minutes ago, Keyblade said:

Seriously? That would be bonkers. We'd be in a mini league with Brighton, Liverpool and Spurs and I'd actually give us a decent chance. 4th is a bridge too far I think.

I just found out today. I still think we’ll finish 8th but it’s pretty crazy that 5th can potentially get a team in to the champs league and we’re in contention!

Edited April 14, 2023 by Vive_La_Villa

[viivvaa66]

15 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

So if United win the Europa league and finish top 4, 5th place gets you in to the champs league! 

No. Same if ManC wins the Champions League, no changes, only the top 4 get Champions League.

[duke313]

21 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

So if United win the Europa league and finish top 4, 5th place gets you in to the champs league! 

Nope. 

[alreadyexists]

Yeah I’m pretty sure PL only get 4 CL entrances regardless. If an English side win the CL and finish outside the top 4 then they get entry and only the top 3 would get in with them  

Edited April 14, 2023 by alreadyexists

[Vive_La_Villa]

You are all right.Sorry 

[Vive_La_Villa]

3 minutes ago, alreadyexists said:

Yeah I’m pretty sure PL only get 4 CL entrances regardless. If an English side win the CL and finish outside the top 4 then they get entry and only the top 3 would get in  

Apparently they will allow 5 in these circumstances. But only if CL or Europa league winners finished out the top 4.

[KMitch]

6 minutes ago, Vive_La_Villa said:

Apparently they will allow 5 in these circumstances. But only if CL or Europa league winners finished out the top 4.

[viivvaa66]

12 minutes ago, alreadyexists said:

Yeah I’m pretty sure PL only get 4 CL entrances regardless. If an English side win the CL and finish outside the top 4 then they get entry and only the top 3 would get in with them  

England can have max 5 entry to Champions League, only if both CL and EL winners are English clubs and both are placed outside the top 4 in the league, will the 4th placed into Europe League.

[viivvaa66]

20 minutes ago, KMitch said:

8th, 9th and 10th will never get into Europe, unless they either win the league cup or the FA cup.

England can get maximum 9 teams into Europe.

This is the rule you missed:

The UEFA Champions League and UEFA Europa League titleholders are guaranteed a place in the group stage even if they do not qualify for the competition through their domestic championships. If the UEFA Champions League or UEFA Europa League titleholder qualifies for the UEFA Europa League or UEFA Europa Conference League through one of its domestic competitions, the number of places to which its association is entitled in the UEFA Europa League or UEFA Europa Conference League is decreased by one.

From https://documents.uefa.com/r/Regulations-of-the-UEFA-Champions-League-2022/23/Article-3-Entries-for-the-competition-Online

Edited April 14, 2023 by viivvaa66